Presentations

Full Length Talks/Presentations  Jump to radio interviews

Marx’s Economics vs. Marxian Economics, Alternative Visions Radio Show Presentations, July 12 to July 23, 2021, (2 hr 56 min 39 sec)

Dr. Rasmus continues his analysis of three great economists (Keynes, Marx, Smith) in today’s first of 3 part series on ‘Marx’s Economics’. In the first show, the focus is on what are the origins of Marx’s economic thought: in ancient Greek (materialist) and Hegelian (dialectics) philosophy, class based political analysis of history, and 18- early 19th century classical economics. Dr. Rasmus explains how Marx critiques classical economics before him, while nonetheless borrowing and adapting concepts from classical economics. .Like classical economics, Marx’s economics is also about long run, supply side evolution of capitalist economy and the possibility of eventual breakdown of the system. It is not about explaining short run business cycles, including recessions or depressions. Marx’s great innovations to supply side long run analysis of capitalism was in quantifying the labor theory of value and explaining how and why capitalism evolves fundamentally by means of exploitation of labor. Dr. Rasmus explains the 10 conceptual innovations Marx makes to the framework of classical economics analysis before him to develop his theory of capitalist exploitation that drives the system to a breakdown crisis in the long run. In Part 2 show, Dr. Rasmus discusses the ‘heart’ of volume I of Capital: Marx’s conceptual innovations of Absolute and Relative Surplus Value, which explain how labor is exploited in production, creating a surplus that capitalists appropriate for themselves. Dr. Rasmus provides examples of how both forms of exploitation exist today in 21st century and are in fact increasing, leading to more exploitation of labor, not less, as well as how ‘secondary’ forms of exploitation are also becoming more widespread. In this final 3rd show, Dr. Rasmus discusses two historic issues in Marx’s analysis of capitalism, that both contemporary Marxian economists as well as Mainstream economics get wrong: First is the idea by many Marxian economists today that in capitalism the rate of profit tends to decline over time, leading to ‘crises’ in the form of severe business cycle contractions (recessions, depressions, etc.). Rasmus shows Marx’s ‘Falling Rate of Profit’ tendency is a ‘in the long run’ argument and about breakdown of capitalism and not an explanation of short run business cycle ‘crises’ like economic depressions. Rasmus debunks the assumptions in the Falling Rate of Profit tendency argument and explains how 21st century capitalism cannot be expressed in such terms. The second issue addressed is by mainstream economists today, who hold that Marx failed to explain how values get transformed into prices in the real world. Rasmus explains Marx never intended in Vol. 1 of Capital (the first of 8 vols planned) to explain the value-price transformation. Furthermore, that explanation is not necessary to show how Capitalism is driven by exploitation, which leads in the long run to Capitalism’s breakdown. Rasmus concludes with commentary why both contemporary Marxists and Mainstreamers fail to understand the financialization of capitalism today as a key source of crises, short run and long.

Keynes’ Economics vs. Keynesian Economics, Alternative Visions Radio Show Presentations, June 18 to July 2, 2021, (2 hr 23 min 17 sec)

In his Alternative Visions radio show this past June 2021, Dr. Rasmus presented a series of deep analyses of three great economists: Keynes, Marx and Adam Smith, showing how mainstream economics distorts the views of all three. What did they really say? How radical were their critiques of the prevailing economic theories and analyses of their day? Today’s first in the series—just under an hour and a half long—Dr. Rasmus discusses Keynes’ 1935 book, ‘A General Theory of Employment, Interest & Money’, explaining why what is known as ‘Keynesian’ (aka mainstream) economics is not the same as Keynes’ analysis of capitalist economy. Dr. Rasmus explains contemporary mainstream economics cleverly ignores key arguments in Keynes’ original work, creating a bastardized version composed of a mix of pre-Keynes economic ideas—that Keynes himself strongly rejected—and selective, ‘safe’, economic analysis from the General Theory. Why Keynes believed capitalism’s Achilles heel was its tendency to create ever-growing income inequality while failing to deal with chronic unemployment. Why and how Keynes argued against policies that reduced and subsidized business costs (interest rates, wages, tax cuts) as the way to generate investment and growth. And why he foresaw, and warned against, emerging financial speculation (in stocks and other financial asset markets) becoming the dominant investment trend in capitalist economies, at the expense of real investment that made things that created jobs and real incomes. Rasmus continues explaining how mainstream economics has expunged key elements of Keynes’ analysis that they found too radical—including critique of financial speculation, capitalist trends toward income inequality and rising unemployment, and Keynes’ implied view that ‘trickle down’ (i.e. Keynesian & Neoclassical) economics would not work.

US 1st Quarter 2021 GDP + Biden’s ‘American Families Plan’, Alternative Visions Radio, April 30, 2021 (59 min 11 sec)

In today’s show Dr. Rasmus dissects US GDP for January-March just reported and explains why the media’s hyping of 6.4% is actually less than 1.6%. What’s really happening with consumption, business spending, government spending, and the trade balance drag on the economy. Next addressed is President Biden’s recent speech announcing his 3rd leg of his fiscal spending stool, the American Families Plan. How much of the three fiscal programs—American Rescue Plan (see previous show), American Jobs Infrastructure Plan, American Families Plan—will actually impact the US economy this year 2021? What are the major ways Biden proposes to pay for the spending and how much of Trump’s $4.5 trillion 2018 tax cuts be rolled back in the Biden plan

American Union Labor’s Great Detour: 1947 to 2021, Alternative Visions Radio, April 19, 2021 (59 min 01 sec)

Dr. Rasmus follows up last week’s analysis of the Union defeat at Amazon by placing it in historic context, from the growth of union membership in the 1930s and 1940s to the great strike wave of 1970-71 and the Great Detour and decline of unions under Neoliberal industrial parties that began with Reagan in the 1980s and continues to this day. How the 1947 Taft Hartley and 1959 Landrum Griffin Acts stopped union strikes for recognition in their tracks and how Employer-State strategy cooperation in the 1970s and beyond have rolled back union membership in the private sector from its peak of 35% (80% in basic industries like auto, steel, transport, etc.) to its barely 5% today. Rasmus explains the strategies and tactics used by employers, with aid of government, to prevent unionization in NLRB elections, such as recently occurred at Amazon. How these strategies and tactics—along with offshoring, free trade, onshoring of H1-B visas, outsourcing, contingent, gig, and other work—have together resulted in a near collapse of private sector unionization in America. Rasmus concludes with a comment on the failure of Obama administration do reform the problem of de-unionization and pass ‘card check’, as well as a review of the Biden administration’s recent PRO Act bill recently passed by the US House of Representatives but all but dead in the US Senate committee.

Biden’s Infrastructure ‘American Jobs Plan’, Alternative Visions Radio, April 2, 2021 (57 min 06 sec)

This show focuses on Biden’s just announced Infrastructure Plan. Called a jobs plan, it will produce few jobs in 2021-22 and have virtually no impact on the near term 2021 economic recovery effort. Estimated by the Wall St. Journal at $2.3T, over 8 yrs., very little will hit the US economy in the much needed early stage of recovery in 2021. At best it will be passed no sooner that 3rd quarter 2021 and not then if filibuster in Senate is upheld. Composed of two phases, the second will not likely be passed (if at all) until 2022. Combined with the Biden prior Covid 19 Relief bill (American Rescue Plan) which projects less than $1T spending in 2021, the combined two fiscal spending bills (ARP and now American Jobs Plan, aka Infrastructure bill) will provide roughly $1 trillion stimulus to US economy in 2021, as it reopens aggressively in coming months. Dr. Rasmus discusses the outlines of Biden’s Tax plan, designed to cover part of the cost of the two stimulus bills. (see last week’s show for more details on Biden’s tax proposals).

Biden’s Tax Plan, Alternative Visions Radio, March 26, 2021 (58 min 36 sec)

Dr. Rasmus provides a first look at President Biden’s Tax proposals, designed to roll back the worst of Trump’s $4T tax cuts in 2018 for businesses and investors. Rasmus describes the 40 year historical tax shift in favor of the 1% wealthiest households, their businesses and their investments—a key hallmark of Neoliberalism policy since 1981. Biden’s 3-part economic recovery program—the $1.8T recent stimulus, the $2T-$3T infrastructure bill to be announced next week, and the tax proposals to help pay for both—are described in context of a struggling US economy and a global deterioration in Europe and elsewhere of the fight against Covid 19 and another economic downturn in many economies. What’s happening in Europe and the prospects of a third wave of Covid based on new and more dangerous variants from UK, So. Africa, and Brazil.

Wall St., Financial Bubbles & Financial Instability, Revolution ‘Z’ Media, February 14, 2021 (52 min 45 sec)

Recently I was asked to explain by Michael Albert and ‘Revolution Z’ media how Wall St. stock markets work, what’s up with the recent Gamestop bubble, what’s financial speculation, what causes financial instability and crises–and how they are all related to, or unrelated to, the real economy. Presented in simple terms, the interview clarifies for laypersons how the current capitalist financial system functions to make investors ever richer, while the rest of the real economy experiences periodic great recessions, wages stagnate and fall, and the quality and quantity of jobs deteriorates.

Trump’s Political Legacies, Alternative Visions Radio, Jan. 22, 2021 (62 min 29 sec)

Today’s Alternative Visions show discusses Trump’s Political Legacies: 1) first, the deep change in political consciousness among all sectors of US society that Trump’s regime—and in particular his last year in office—have generated; 2) the second Trump political legacy is the radical takeover of the Republican party under Trump and the forthcoming fight over who will run that party—traditional elites or Trump forces. A split in its structure is likely before 2024; 3) the third legacy is the failure of government and institutions in addressing the US Triple Crisis: Covid, Economic, Political, the effects of which will carry over into 2021-22; 4) US global hegemony and alliances are in shambles. Former allies will never return to status quo ante pre-Trump again and will cautiously pursue independent relations with China and other countries; 5) the fifth legacy is Trump’s legitimization and organizing of the radical right forces in America, in and out of Government. Trump may be temporarily gone, but Trumpism as a form of emerging US neofascism remains and will continue to grow.

Biden’s $1.9 Trillion Stimulus Package, Alternative Visions Radio, Jan. 15, 2021 (59 min 55 sec)

Dr. Rasmus unpacks the details of Biden’s just announced first economic stimulus package of $1.9T, called the ‘American Rescue Plan’. The four sections of the package are explained in detail: the $400 billion for Covid, vaccine distribution, PPE, emergency paid leave, and schools reopening; the $1 trillion additional for direct family relief in the form of $1,400 checks, extended unemployment benefits, rent-food-child care assistance, child tax credits, vets health, and other assistance; and the added $440 billion for community and local governments support and to help women and minority business reopening. Dr. Rasmus raises the important provisos of how much of the $1.9 trillion will get into the US economy and how soon in order to stabilize a now rapidly declining 1st quarter US economy slipping into a double dip recession. Also addressed is how much of this $1.9T proposal will actually get through Congress in coming weeks and how much unnecessary further tax cuts for big business and investors will be tacked on to it by Republican friends in Congress. (For print analyses of these discussions, visit Dr. Rasmus at http://jackrasmus.com)

Trump’s Toxic Economic Legacies, Alternative Visions Radio, Jan. 8, 2021 (58 min 23 sec)

Dr. Rasmus sums up the major economic legacies of Trump’s 4 years in office, discussing Trump’s accomplishments on behalf of big corporations, investors and the wealthy 1%: At the top of the list are 1) Trump’s $4T tax cuts in 2018 largely benefiting investors and business groups; 2) the gutting of regulations across the board; 3) Trump’s trade wars--and the deep disruption of global trading relationships; 4) the US vs. China tech war that will continue now for years; 5) Trump’s successful intimidation of the Federal Reserve to force it to lower interest rates and continue free money while tax cuts simultaneously pumped up available money capital in the hands of investors and corporations; 5) the bubble in stock and financial markets made possible by the Fed and $4T tax cuts; 6) the increased funding of military industrial complex; 7) record budget deficits and rise in US national debt due to tax cuts and defense spending; 8) Trump’s gross mismanagement of the Covid health crisis which has intensified the second Great Recession on his watch and in turn has accelerated structural changes in the US economy that will have continuing negative impacts on labor markets, wage incomes, and inequality.

America’s Triple Crisis (Alternative Visions Radio Show, November 20, 2020 (58 min 8 sec)

Dr. Rasmus explains the triple crisis in America today and why it is intensifying once again. The economic crisis and lack of fiscal stimulus to rescue the economy as it slows in the fourth quarter compared to the third; the Covid health crisis worsening. And the US political crisis as Trump tries to get the electoral college to change votes or leave a ‘scorched earth’ economic condition in the country should Biden take office.

Debunking 3rd Quarter US GDP (Alternative Visions Radio Show, October 30, 2020 (59 min 4 sec)

Today’s show covers US GDP preliminary numbers for the 3rd quarter 2020, showing a quarter on quarter rebound of 7.4% after a 10.5% March-June collapse. Rasmus explains why US 3rd Qtr GDP is really in net terms only 2% not 7.4%, and why annualized growth numbers should be totally disregarded as statistical exaggerations. What’s behind the 3rd quarter growth, industry by industry, is covered. Also why late 3rd quarter shows signs of a slowing momentum for the economy, not growth, and why the fourth quarter (and late 3rd) indicators are beginning to show a possible negative 4th quarter. Should fiscal stimulus not occur in 4th and Covid worsen, a double dip recession in 1st Quarter 2021 is likely. Dr. Rasmus explains why this general scenario is definitely a ‘W-Shape’ trajectory which he has been predicting since March 2020.

Trump’s ‘Plan B’, the Supreme Court & Coming Political Crisis, An Interview with Parallax Views Host, J. Michael, Sept. 25, 2020 (45 min 15 sec)

In the following interview with Parallax Views host, J. Michael (our 2nd), I and the host discuss at length the possible–and most likely–scenario to unfold after November 3 and the US elections. Michaels and I discuss, and go beyond, my views set forth in my Sept. 22, 2020 article, ‘A Most Dire Warning’, in which I briefly described the most likely scenario Trump will follow immediately following the November 3 election results. The role of Trump’s 6-3 majority Supreme Court, the stopping of mail in ballot vote counting in key states, voter suppression on going in red states, and other political maneuvers.

The Covid Great Recession Explained (August 28, 2020 Interview with James Kunstler) (1 hour 8 min 50 sec)

The following is an hour+ interview on various topics related to the current Great Recession as it reached an end to its Phase 1 period with the mostly full reopening of the economy. Discussion ranged from what constitutes a bona fide fiscal stimulus, how the current contraction compares to 2008-09, 1929-30, and 1907-13 similar great recessions, how the March Cares Act hasn’t been spent by big business, nor has any real fiscal stimulus passed to date as yet. The three ‘tail risks’ of a more serious ‘relapse’ and descent into a continued, and potentially even greater, crisis: inadequate fiscal stimulus, political instability in the US around a contested election, and forces developing toward a potential major financial instability in 2021 as defaults and bankruptcies rise is discussed.

America’s Triple Crisis:
Covid 19, Great Recession, Political Crisis (August 21, 2020 Interview with ‘Parallax Views’ (1 hour 14 min 58 sec)

An hour long interview on August 21, with J. Michaels on Parallax Views podcast on the current state of America’s Triple Crisis. How Covid 19, the recession, and coming US Constitutional crisis and conflict are inter-related and mutually exacerbating. Why all 3 are about to get worse. Why together they may precipitate a financial crisis in 2021.

Trump’s Election Plan ‘B’?
Alternative Visions Radio, Hosted by Dr. Jack Rasmus, August 14, 2020 (1 hour 0 min 0 sec)

As Congress goes home it now appears negotiations on a stimulus plan have collapsed, not just broken off. There may be no stimulus package before the November 3 elections. Severing negotiations means Trump’s plan not to negotiate with Democrats and Congress is no longer tactical but strategic. What’s the bigger strategy behind the growing triple crisis in America: Health, Economic and Political? Dr. Rasmus speculates on the elements of Trump’s strategy for November now taking form. How it assumes a continuation of the Covid, Economic, and Constitutional confrontation with Congress. What’s the possible role of a foreign policy crisis in October in a ‘Plan B’? With a deepening Constitutional challenge with the US House of Representatives. What are some scenarios possible after November 3?

2nd Quarter US GDP Collapses & June Rebound Fading
Alternative Visions Radio, Hosted by Dr. Jack Rasmus, July 31, 2020 (58 min 39 sec)

Dr. Rasmus dissects the just released data for US economy’s 2nd quarter GDP stats, confirming his March prediction of W-shape recovery and no 2nd half recovery. 4 myths of current economic recovery are discussed: 1. There’ll be a quick V-Shape recovery in 2020; 2. The US economy was strong in 2019; 3.) US consumer households were doing great in 2019 and will do again in 3Q20; 4. Congress’s March 2020 Cares Act is enough stimulus for recovery and therefore no need to rush to another massive stimulus bill. 3 ‘wild cards’ that could throw the US economy into depression in 2021: Failure of Congress to pass adequate fiscal stimulus in August, Trump precipitated political-constitutional crisis after Nov. 3, and growing defaults, bankruptcies & financial instability in 2021.

What Lies Ahead
Alternative Visions Radio, Hosted by Dr. Jack Rasmus, July 17, 2020 (58 min 49 sec)

Dr. Rasmus discusses his latest blog piece, ‘What Lies Ahead’ (see jackrasmus.com). The 8 factors that may mean the current Great Recession experiences a major economic relapse: permanent 2nd jobless wave, weak fiscal stimulus, unemployment benefits loss and rent evictions, child care and education system crisis, state & local government defaults, permanent transformation of industries and drop in hours worked, return to austerity in 2021, business and government defaults, bankruptcies and financial instability in 2021, and US political instability circa Nov. 3 and after may push the US (and global) economy over the edge into deeper economic contraction.

Gaming the Economic Bailout
Alternative Visions Radio, Hosted by Dr. Jack Rasmus, June 19, 2020 (59 min 56 sec)

Dr. Rasmus reviews the various ways the Cares Act and $2.7T Congress bailout since March has been ‘gamed’ by big business and investors. How big corps have taken the funds and not invested, or refused to take up the loans altogether. The same applies to the Federal Reserve’s $3.3T in loans to banks and investors via its QE and 11 ‘facilities’ to provide free money capital to banks and others. A second theme of the show is Dr. Rasmus explanation that the nearly $5T in Congress and Fed stimulus is not really a stimulus.

The Fed’s Historic Gamble: Pre-Bailing Out the Capitalist System
Alternative Visions Radio, Hosted by Dr. Jack Rasmus, May 1, 2020 (58 min 4 sec)

The US central bank, the Federal Reserve (Fed), is in the process of throwing trillions of dollars at the economy, most to businesses and corporations, in an historic effort to bail out the banks and now non-bank businesses as well (for the first time). The objective is to head off and prevent the deep and rapid contraction of the US economy from spawning a wave of defaults and bankruptcies among non-bank businesses that will soon fail to ‘service’ their massive accumulated debt loads run up since 2010. Broad sectors of US business heavily laden with corporate debt—corporate junk bonds, junk loans, and related debt amounting to several trillions $ in the US alone—are on the verge of failing to make principal & interest payments on that massive debt. The Fed is feeding them free money to continue to do so. As well as pumping up bank balance sheets to provide a cushion for the defaults and bankruptcies and avoid a banking-financial system crash in the event of defaults when they come. Rasmus explains how the capitalist drive to return workers to their jobs now gaining momentum is also about business revenue restoration to avoid defaults. Industries most prone to defaults: travel, oil and energy, retail, entertainment will be the leading edge. Rasmus explains the magnitude and composition of the Fed’s $9T commitment to ‘pre-bail out’ the banks and business, and how the US working class will be required to pay the bill—a present on this May Day to workers.

Global Stock Markets Crashing–What’s Next?
Alternative Visions Radio, Hosted by Dr. Jack Rasmus, Feb. 28, 2020 (58 min 34 sec)

The big news of the past week is the collapse of global stock markets, now having fallen by nearly 15% and continuing. Dr. Rasmus explains why, and why such a fast rate of contraction—comparable to what happened in 2008-09. Also, an update on the various ‘channels’ by which the virus impacts stock and other financial markets, and in turn how both propagate by means of various channels to the ‘real’ US and global economy. Discussion next examines the weak state of the US economy in fourth quarter 2019, driven by ‘weak’ indicators like inventory build-up and faster fall in imports than in exports. Why business investment, manufacturing, commercial building are all falling, and why the household consumer spending picture is especially weak for the middle class and below. How the virus effect will depress the real US economy in coming weeks. A review of the rest of world economies’ markets and emerging recessions.

Coronavirus & Global Economic Contagion Channels
Alternative Visions Radio, Hosted by Dr. Jack Rasmus, Feb. 21, 2020 (58 min 55 sec)

Dr. Rasmus provides an update on latest developments of past week on the Coronavirus and its growing impact on China’s economy, and the contagion channels to the rest of the global economy. Media and business ‘consensus’ that effect and recovery will be ‘V-shape’ in China is now collapsing. Ditto that the economic effects will be largely contained to China itself. Multiple sources of evidence emerging the virus is spreading faster, and outside China now. Five channels of economic contagion are discussed: trade/supply chain channel; currency channel; commodities and commodity futures channel, financial asset market channel, consumption channel (tourism & luxury goods). Why Japan (and So. Korea) economy is most fragile and susceptible to China contagion.

US-China 'Mini' Trade Deal + Revisiting the Repo Market
Alternative Visions Radio, Hosted by Dr. Jack Rasmus, Oct 11th, 2019 (59 min 11 sec)

Business and mainstream media today talking up a likely 'mini' deal on US-China trade. What's behind it and what's likely to be covered. China's call for a 'fair' deal means a mini deal, minus any agreement on the nextgen tech issue. Trump's 'big deal' will mean no tech issue resolution. So why is Trump now willing to take what's on the table (same as last May 2019) and forego his 'big deal'? Rasmus discusses the various economic reasons Trump may settle for less today, and continue attacking tech issue by other means. Is the 'mini' deal pending with China another 'softball' deal per So. Korea, Japan, USMCA, EU trade agts? Trump's trade war is already a dismal failure, as US trade deficit hits record $55b in August. The second half of show revisits the Repo Market instability topic once again, provides updates on Fed's $400 billion money injection, discusses whether it's 'QE' again, and reviews just released BIS and FSB studies showing role of shadow banks in the Repo market may be part of the problem. The show closes with comments on 7m US auto loan defaults, and the chronic problem of a rising US dollar.

Repo Market Crisis As Financial System Instability 'Red Flag'. What's Next?
Alternative Visions Radio, hosted by Dr. Jack Rasmus, Sept 20th, 2019 (59 min 21 sec)

Dr. Rasmus dissects this past week's spike in Repo (Repurchase Agreement) bank to bank lending market and what it means for growing financial instability in the US and globally. Candidate for financial market instability in US and worldwide are reviewed (junk bonds, BBB, leveraged loans, CDOs, etc., as well as India-Europe banks, China markets, Argentina, etc.). In the midst of all this, the US Repo market rates spiked to 10%. Official short term explanations not acceptable. Longer term more fundamental causes: Fed pulling money out of bank reserves via bond operations and balance sheet sell off in order to finance US $1 trillion plus budget deficits. Fed will now restart 'QE Lite' via Repo market injections. Fed and central banks policies no longer functioning as economic stabilization tools but as main conduits boosting capital market incomes. Fed and central banks now secretly planning even more radical innovations next year.

Labor Day 2019: Debunking Myths of Rising Wages & Jobs
Alternative Visions Radio, hosted by Dr. Jack Rasmus, Aug 30th, 2019 (50 min 03 sec)

What's the condition of Labor this Labor Day 2019? The official Trump estimate of 3.1% increase in wages this past year is really between -0.8% and 1.1% according to independent bank and other research companies. 3.1% is unadjusted for inflation, is an 'average' skewed by big gains for professionals and managers, and refers to only full time workers-leaving out the 60m plus 'contingent' part time/temp/gig workers. Independent surveys by Bankrate, Payscale, McKinsey Research, and EPI paint a different picture: 60% of labor force say they got no pay increase at all last year. 45% say they are working 2nd and 3rd jobs to make ends meet. Rasmus debunks with data the Neoliberal lie that business-investor tax cuts create jobs, as US Labor Dept. just announces adjustment of 500,000 fewer jobs last year than previously reported so that monthly job creation no different 2018 than 2017 after tax cuts.

US Recession Next (This) Time
Alternative Visions Radio, hosted by Dr. Jack Rasmus, Aug 16th, 2019 (59 min 45 sec)

As more and more independent research arms of banks, big investors, and even economists are now predicting recession is coming (as I have been for the past year), what we hear increasingly from the Trump administration and its apologists is that 'the US economy is strong and doing fine'. Other sources less optimistic are increasing saying recession is coming, 'but it will be mild this time'. There's no housing bubble on the horizon and no tech dotcom bust is imminent (2000) so the coming recession will be mild. In today's show we examine and discuss both themes-'the US economy is strong' and 'the next recession will be mild', providing contrary evidence and arguments to both. New market sector candidates, contagion channels and transmission mechanisms for the next financial crisis are noted, and monetary and fiscal policies will prove far less effective this time in trying to slow a contracting economy.

How Central Banks and Governments Subsidize Capital Incomes: the USA Case
Interview with Deep State Teleconferences, Host Cheryl Chercurt, January 30, 2019 (2 hr 8 min 57 sec excerpt from 2 hr 44 min 31 sec)

Dr. Rasmus provides an in depth critique of US monetary and fiscal policy evolution since 2000 showing how it increasingly is about subsidizing capital incomes and not about stabilizing or growing the economy, as mainstream economic theory maintains. Trump policies are the particular focus, but understood in the context of a longer period trend. Rasmus explains the emergence and now dominance of a new global finance capital elite and the growing shift toward financial asset market investing at the expense of real investment and job creation at reasonable pay and benefits.

Dollar Imperialism & Trump’s Proxy War on Venezuela
Alternative Visions Radio, February 1, 2019 (57 min 46 sec)

Dr. Rasmus explains how the US employs financial imperialism to destabilize regimes, using the US dollar, sanctions, freezing of assets, cutting off access to trade and markets, denial of loans by US and world banks, and other measures as a prelude to creating an economic crisis in the target country to foster domestic political unrest and opposition forces to topple existing governments. Rasmus explains how this has been developing in Venezuela, and why it has recently intensified over the past six months. Guest Alan Benjamin describes recent political developments in Venezuela and the growing potential for military intervention there using US proxy governments, Brazil and Colombia. Efforts by Europe and Mexico to mediate. Possible responses by Russia and China. And solidarity movements emerging in the US to avoid a US proxy war against Venezuela. (go to jackrasmus.com blog for 2016 article: “How the US Destabilizes Argentina, Brazil, & Venezuela). For emerging US solidarity movements, check outwww.USlaboragainstwar.org)

Debt & Its Role in Recession & Financial Crises
Alternative Visions Radio, January 4, 2019 (59 min 23 sec)

Dr. Rasmus explains the role of debt in generating financial asset price bubbles in 21st century capitalism, and globally since 2008-09 last crisis. How debt may play a positive role in generating real investment or how credit and debt may divert into financial asset markets instead, creating bubbles and eventual financial asset markets deflation. Global debt escalation since 2008-09. How debt acceleration has been responsible for the record levels of stock markets, bonds, foreign exchange speculation, oil and commodities speculation, property prices, etc. from 2010 to 2017. Rasmus explains why there’s an emerging global manufacturing recession underway, as well as declining construction, and how it’s spilling over to tech sector and later will as well to services, creating a recession by late 2019 or early 2020 in the US and globally. The causal consequences of financial asset price deflation and global manufacturing and construction recessions now emerging.

Review 2018 & Predictions 2019
Alternative Visions Radio, December 28, 2018 (59 min 15 sec)

Dr. Rasmus reviews the major economic developments of the past year, 2018, and offers his predictions for 2019. Major topics of 2018: Trump tax cuts, Trump trade war, Fed rate hikes. Obamacare dismantling, US $trillion dollar annual deficits emerge, 'Emerging Market Economies’ currency crises and recessions, global oil price deflation, UK Brexit, European central bank and Bank of Japan policy shifts, the slowing global economy, and growing financial fragility. Areas of potential political tail risks’ that may impact the economy negatively in 2019 are noted. Rasmus’s 10 economic predictions for 2019: US recession late 2019; US-China trade deal by mid-year; oil prices fall to $30; Fed halts rate hikes; Europe and Japan central banks continue QE policies, UK Brexit talks drag on past deadline; 1st quarter US GDP and job numbers weaken dramatically; US stock markets continue to decline by at least 10% more; emerging market economies crisis abates as Fed rate hikes halt & dollar appreciation slows; and China’s GDP slows below 6%. Rasmus’ adds his political predictions for 2019.

Europe—‘Sick Man’ of Global Economy
Alternative Visions Radio, December 14, 2018 (59 min 5 sec)

Europe’s economy is stagnating again. Dr. Rasmus reviews the 3 key elements of its growth strategy: (1) free money from its central bank, (2) internal devaluations (aka labor market ‘reforms’) to drive down wage costs to make EU exports more competitive, and (3) fiscal austerity. Rasmus explains how all three are now breaking down as Europe’s GDP recently stagnates at 0.2% for 3rd quarter 2018 reveals and as economic and political problems promise to intensify in 2019 as the global economy slows. The European central bank’s QE bond buying, the ‘hard Brexit’ looming, Italian banks’ instability, rolling recessions emerging in Italy and elsewhere, and continuing internal challenges to Eurozone policies—all represent the unraveling of Europe’s economic recovery strategy, making it the ‘sick man’ of the global economy as the world (and US economy) slows heading in 2019.

Yield Curves & Recession Late 2019
Alternative Visions Radio, December 7, 2018 (56 min 49 sec)

Dr. Rasmus explains the importance of the Yield Curve (currently flattening or inverting) and its role as a predictor of recession in 2019. Why critics of yield curve are wrong. What causes short term rates to rise while long term rates slow or fall. The Fed’s role in short term rate changes and the global-US economy slowing role in long term rates converging with short term. Why the Fed continues raising (short term) rates but cannot do so more than 1-2 times more in 2019 without provoking a crisis in emerging market economies, causing further slowing of Europe and Japan economies, or provoking further financial markets price deflation. Overview of the forces converging to produce recession 2019.( In the first half of the show, updates on china trade war, global oil price developments, and GM layoffs are discussed—and what’s behind the arrest of Huawei’s Co-CEO, Meng Wangzhou, by Canada at US request).

US & Global Stock Markets Plunge — What’s Next?
Alternative Visions Radio - October 12, 2018 (58 min 16 sec)

Today’s show focuses on the past week’s turmoil and decline in US and global stocks (Japan, EME, China, Europe), as Fed rate hikes and the ‘wall of money’ tsunami provided to investors by the Fed and Congress since 2008 now begins to recede. Dr. Rasmus explains why US stock and financial markets accelerated to record levels between 2009-2018 (i.e. Fed $5T plus QE free money, 6 years of near zero interest rates, $1T year in corporate bond issuance, another $1T a year in corporate stock buybacks and dividend payouts, a tripling of corporate profits, $15T in tax cuts for businesses and investors from Bush to Trump—have all converged driving up stock prices. Now investors realize, except for Trump tax cut subsidy to profits (20% this year), all the other ‘drivers’ of stock prices will decline in 2019 and after. Rasmus explains further how structural changes in stock markets (ETFs, passive investing, dark pools, algo trading, etc.) have exacerbated the US stock run-up, but will now accelerate the stock declines as well. Other related discussion in the show focuses on the IMF bailouts of Argentina, Pakistan and IMF’s coming funding crisis, Italy’s new government’s break from EU austerity rules, and latest developments in Trump’s US-China trade war.

Global Economic Instability Rising + Trump’s NAFTA 2.0
Alternative Visions Radio - October 5, 2018 (59 min 18 sec)

With the US Fed rate hikes accelerating, and US and global bond selloff accelerating this past week, Dr. Rasmus looks at signs of growing financial instability in the US and abroad. Bond interest rates accelerating and more Fed rate hikes coming. The impact intensifying again on emerging market economies. Stock markets and recessions deepening. Italian bonds and banks (+ Euro, Greek, Turkey, India banks). Signs of corporate default problems rising (India’s IL&FS, GE, Deutsche bank, etc.). US hedge funds closing shop. Junk bond ‘zombie’ companies’ problems rolling over debt as rates rise. Pension funds. Corporate ETFs, Argentina and IMF, US deficits and debt (including $900 billion in interest on US debt prediction by CBO). Global financial asset prices beginning to turn and decline. Rasmus next discusses the phony trade agreements with Mexico and Canada. The coming intensifying trade war with China. The mysterious China ‘microchip’ affair (the new ‘yellow cake’?) as pretext for conflict with China. And while preoccupied with Kavanaugh affair, US NATO ambassador threatens to send US missiles to ‘take out’ Russian missile bases, while US threatens to attack Russian air bases in Syria. (For more on topics, go to jackrasmus.com blog).

China-US Trade War: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back
Alternative Visions Radio - September 21, 2018 (59 min 35 sec)

Dr. Rasmus analyzes in depth the past week’s further trade tariffs announced by Trump against China ($200b) and China’s response in kind ($60b). Big retreats in both cases in terms of tariff rates and composition (tariff exemptions) show that real trade war not yet begun but getting closer. US investors and stock markets agree, and surge. Trump objective in latest moves: bring China back to bargaining table before US elections. Trump reduces tariff rate, from prior 25% to 10%; China also reduces, from 25% to 10% and 5%. Plus both sides exempt key products: US cuts 300 from prior list, including Apple, tech and car industries; China exempts or reduces rate on US agriculture and consumer goods (toys) for upcoming holidays. Some interesting facts re. China imports to US: 90% of $529 billion from US and foreign corporations’ and foreign-Chinese joint ventures producing in China and importing to US. (Apple and mobile phones = $40billion of the $529b. All US tech corps= $90 billion. US car makers and minerals tens of billions more). Updates on Turkey, Argentina and other emerging markets, and financial markets that are growing more fragile. Global weak spots: Emerging markets, Italy, China stocks, and, in 2019 the UK if ‘hard Brexit’, now appearing more likely. Rasmus describes the ‘wall of money’ now driving US stock markets to historical highs, including $1.5 trillion in 2018 stock buybacks and dividend payouts.

Lehman Brothers 2008 Crash & Emerging Markets 2018 Crises Compared
Alternative Visions Radio - September 7, 2018 (59 min 22 sec)

Dr. Rasmus explains the financial crash of 2008, from the collapse of Bear Stearns investment bank to the Lehman Brothers collapse of September that set off the general financial crisis. Are we seeing something similar beginning in Emerging Market Economies like Argentina, Turkey, So. Africa, Brazil, Indonesia, India perhaps? Rasmus explains the 2008 crisis was not simply a subprime mortgage crash, but was a contagion across credit markets enabled by financial derivatives securities created at the time. How contagion was propagated and accelerated across financial markets and institutions in 2008 is explained; How a similar contagion effect may be emerging across economies like Argentina, Turkey and others in 2018. Rasmus explains contagion channels: currency to currency; currency to stock markets; stocks to stocks; stock to bond markets and how contagion processes work is poorly understood by mainstream economists today. Why understanding financial crises must distinguish between fundamental, enabling, and precipitating causes. How the Fed and the US Treasury politics also played a key role in allowing the 2008 crisis in bailing out Bear Stearns in March and then allowing Lehman to collapse in September. Who benefited from the 2008 bail out.

The New Phase of Global Capitalism Post-2008
Alternative Visions Radio - July 7, 2017 (58 min 36 sec)

Dr. Rasmus explains how the global capitalist economy entered a new phase of evolution with the 2008-09 global financial crash and recession, and how central banks have become the primary economic policy institution for the advanced economies. Central banks have been transformed since 2008 from institutions designed to bail out the private banks in periods of crises, into institutions that permanently subsidize the capitalist banking system by means of constant, massive liquidity injections to the private banks, shadow banks, and their investors. About $15 trillion in central bank liquidity has been provided by means of QE alone, and capitalist banking has become addicted to, and chronically dependent upon, central banks’ free money. Rasmus notes corporate debt has not been removed but only transferred to central banks’ balance sheets, and the global financial and real economy remains fragile and in the late phase of a real growth cycles that are now ending.. Rasmus explains the Great Contradiction of central bank monetary policy, as the only policy game in town, is that the subsidization of the banking system since 2008 is providing the conditions for the next financial crisis of that system. The 5 major themes of his just released book, Central Bankers at the End of Their Ropes?: Monetary Policy and the Next Depression, Clarity Press, July 2017, are reviewed. For more book information, go to: www.kyklosproductions.com/homewar.html

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US Federal Reserve's Rate Hikes: The Impact on US & Global Economies
Alternative Visions Radio - December 16, 2016 (58 min 47 sec)

Dr. Rasmus reviews the US central bank's decision this past week to raise rates, with three more hikes coming in 2017 (and more after in 2018-19). What’s really behind the Fed's rate hikes' decision? Why US economic elites have decided to shift policy to boost corporate and investor incomes more from fiscal policy in 2017 and after than from monetary policy over the past eight years, 2008-2016. What's the impact on the US real economy from the shift and why it may not be as great as pundits predict. Why rising rates for the rest of the rest of the US economy may destroy more jobs than infrastructure spending may generate, and the former happen faster than the latter. The outlook for US housing, autos, retail sales. Why real wages may fall. How the euphoria of US stock markets conceals areas of real economic weakness that continue and may grow worse. Jack further reviews the effects of US Fed rate hikes on Europe, China and emerging market economies in Latin America and South Asia. How emerging markets are already now experiencing currency declines, capital outflows, financial instability, and will experience deeper recessions in the year ahead; why Europe will continued slow growth and stagnation and why China's currency, the Yuan, will devalue beyond its trading band in coming months due to US rate hikes and dollar rise, and may intensify a US-China trade war.

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Jerry Mead Lucero, Host of Chicago's Labor Express Radio,
Interviews Jack Rasmus on the Meaning of
the Recent Trump Election - November 20, 2016 (43 min 41 sec)

Jerry Mead Lucero: On tonight's episode of Labor Express Radio we take a look at the presidential election and ask what happened, why and what can we expect in regards to the impact on working people in the next 4 years. While much of the mainstream press is rightly lamenting the level of racism, sexism and xenophobia in this country that was revealed by Trump's victory, few media outlets have focused on a class perspective and analysis of the election. This despite the fact that much like the Brexit vote in Britain last Summer, the vote from Trump was primarily rooted in the white working class. It is therefore essential that we understand why so much of the white working class was willing to take such a dangerous gamble on such dangerous candidate. Luckily friend of Labor Express Radio and regular guest, economist Dr. Jack Rasmus has taken on a class analysis. And he was willing to discuss his interpretation of the election results by phone yesterday. Tonight's program will be devoted entirely to that interview.

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Trumponomics 1.0: Initial Economic Effects of Anticipated Trump Policies
Alternative Visions Radio - November 18, 2016 (53 min 21 sec)

Dr. Rasmus reviews the early effects of anticipated Trump policies, which are already significant: How the rising value of the US dollar and long term interest rates, in expectation of Trump proposals for infrastructure fiscal spending, are already having major consequences for the US and global economies. Jack explains how the current rise in the dollar and long term rates ensure rising Fed short term rates, lower global oil prices, will result in a decline in US net exports and thus manufacturing production and jobs in the US. Why rising rates may negate Trump fiscal-infrastructure spending and job effects? How the rising dollar and US rates will have negative effects in Europe and Japan; will force China's currency to devalue and accelerate a global currency war; and why Latin American other emerging markets economies destabilization will now intensify with more capital flight, currency collapse, inflation and recessions. Jack concludes with a discussion of Trump tax proposals to repatriate US multinational corporations' $2.5 trillion offshore cash hoard by reducing their tax rate from 35% to 10%, explaining how that was tried with disastrous results already in 2005. How Trump tax proposals are a continuation of established Republican neoliberal tax policy since Reagan and will mean another $4.5$ trillion in corporate tax reduction -- following Obama's $6.1 trillion corporate-investor cuts 2009-2013 and GW Bush's $3.4 trillion handouts in 2001-04.

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Trump's Election and Economic Consequences -- US and Global
Alternative Visions Radio - November 11, 2016 (54 min 12 sec)

Jack Rasmus discusses the economics behind why Trump won the election, and the economic legacies of the Obama regime behind why the white working class in the great lakes region -- from Pennsylvania to Wisconsin -- abandoned the Democrats and voted against the political elites and Clinton. Jack refers listeners to his shows earlier this year and predictions this would happen. (See also articles on his blog, jackrasmus.com). The no-college white working class vote was key, along with lower turnout for Clinton among Latinos, youth, and even African-Americans compared to 2008 and even 2012. The show then reviews the areas of economic consequences expected from a Trump election, including: booming stock markets, rising bond interest rates, big corporate tax cuts coming quickly, Infrastructure spending, more price gouging by pharmaceutical companies and health insurers, the early dismantling of Obamacare and Dodd-Frank bank regulation acts, likely repeal of alternative energy credits, restoration of the Keystone pipeline project, gutting of the EPA's funding, suspension of proposed industrial plant emissions, refusal to implement the Paris climate accords, boosted production of gas fracking, pipelines, and coal production, an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike in December and more likely in 2017 now, renewed attacks on social security, surging government deficits and debt, general deregulation of business and across the board repeal of Obama executive orders and passage of anti-Latino immigration legislation. The consequences for the global economy are also considered, with focus on emergency markets currency collapse, capital flight and further recessions, rising US dollar and falling oil prices, China's currency devaluation, Europe and Japan QE policies, and likely measures addressing free trade including NAFTA, TPP, and TTIP.

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On the Anniversary of the Greek Debt Crisis of 2015:
Part 1 (Neoliberal and German Origins of Greek Debt)
Alternative Visions Radio - August 16, 2016 (57 min 10 sec)

Dr. Rasmus discusses the first of a two part series on the nature of Greek debt crises, and how they are the consequence of Euro neoliberalism, dominance of the Eurozone's 'Troika' (European Commission, European Central Bank, IMF) by German bankers, allies and politicians, and the continuing insolvency of European private banks. Citing recent studies that show 95% of Greece’s debt payment to the Troika since 2010 have gone to European bankers, Rasmus argues the recycling of debt and interest payments represents an emerging new form of financial imperialism that is built into the Eurozone's very structure since 1999. The deeper analysis is available in Dr. Rasmus's new book, to be released in September, Looting Greece: An Emerging New Financial Imperialism, by Clarity Press. Rasmus discusses the origins of the 2010, 2012, 2015 (and April 2016 mini) debt crises in Greece, and concludes with the Greek Syriza party's main strategic error. Next week, Part 2: Why Syriza's Strategy (and Tactics) Failed and Why the Troika's Prevailed, plus more on the new financial imperialism taking form in the Eurozone periphery and its prospects globally elsewhere.

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Japan’s Perpetual Recession Economy:
QEs, Negative Rates, and Helicopters
Alternative Visions - August 12, 2016 (57 min 43 sec)

Jack reviews the current condition of Japan’s economy, after 8 years of virtual perpetual recession despite record QE central bank injections, negative interest rates, and talk of helicopter money. Japan’s history of monetary policy first, plus austerity, since 1991 has doomed it to perpetual recessions — 8 since 1991 and 5 since 2008. Japan as innovator of QE and negative rate policies. The results in creating trillions of non-performing bank loans (NPLs) and more than $13 trillion in negative bond rates since 2014 are reviewed. Jack also reviews why global economies are about to shift in 2017 to more fiscal infrastructure spending—but will do so ‘too little and too late’ to prevent recessions in 2017.

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Europe's Central Bank Expands QE and Negative Rates
As Currency Wars Escalate
Alternative Visions Radio, Mar 11, 2016 (57 min 25 sec)

Last month the Bank of Japan (BoJ) expanded its QE program and negative interest rates (NIRP) in a desperate attempt to reboost its stock market and Yen exchange rate. This past week the European Central Bank (ECB)went a step further, as both the ECB and BoJ continue to engage in dueling QEs that are intensifying global currency wars and slowing global trade. ECB chairman, Mario Draghi, lowered the Eurozone's negative rate on government bonds another notch, now to -0.4%. Reportedly half of all government bonds in Europe now trade at negative rates. In addition, the ECB raised its monthly buying amount from $66 billion to $88 billion, and now will buy corporate bonds as well. The move subsidizes Euro corporations, lowering their costs of borrowing and insurance (CDS) on bonds, a move to offload the $1.5 trillion in corporate non-performing loans in Europe. Jack Rasmus explains why this won't have any effect on the Eurozone real economy but will temporary boost stocks and currency. Jack also reviews why global oil prices have risen recently to $40 a barrel, Japan's official return to recession after doctoring GDP numbers last 3rd quarter 2015, China's latest mini-stimulus, the US deepening control of Ukraine's economy, and the significance of the Socialist government in France new attack on eliminating the 35 hour workweek, where 90% of all jobs created in 2015 were part time and temporary, and the mass protests now emerging there. Jack concludes with brief introduction to his forthcoming May 2016 book, Looting Greece: The Emergence of a New Imperialism, and his next book out October 2016 entitled, Central Bankers on the Ropes, both from Clarity Press. (See his blog, jackrasmus.com and Clarity Press for more information).

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China's Unwinding Stock Bubble and Contagion Effects
Alternative Visions Radio, Jan. 15, 2016 (58 min 25 sec)

Jack Rasmus continues analysis of China’s unwinding stock bubble and explains how it is connected to China currency devaluation, slowing real economy, and currency speculators in Hong Kong markets. How currency devaluation exacerbates stock decline and vice versa and how real economic slowing in China, now no more than 5% GDP annual growth, interacts with the other forces. China’s revolving bubbles, from property markets to entrusted loans and WMPS, to stock markets is explained. China’s $1 trillion capital flight in 2015 and government policy makers spending of $500 billion to prop up stocks and currencies. How China’s massive credit-debt and liquidity buildup since 2009 is behind it all. And behind that the rise of shadow banks and the new global finance capital elite. Jack concludes with exploration of possible contagion effects from China’s continuing bubble unwind—on US corporate profits, stock investor contagion, on emerging market economies, and the parallel bubble deflation in global oil prices that continues. Jack concludes the global economy is moving faster now toward another financial crisis and global recession, which will be precipitated, he predicts, by China and then centered in emerging market economies. US and other advanced economies are far less prepared or able to contain the next crisis. (For deeper analysis, see Jack’s chapter 6 on China in his new book, Systemic Fragility in the Global Economy, January 2016, available from his blog at jackrasmus.com and on Amazon.

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Systemic Weakness in the Global Economy
Progressive Radio Network, New York, 13 Jan. 2016 (30 min 47 sec)

Gary Null interviews Dr. Jack Rasmus about failings in our economy. Dr. Rasmus is the author of several books, the most recent being Systemic Fragility in the Global Economy which explores why mainstream economic analysis repeatedly fails and why we have been incapable of producing a sustainable recovery and economy. In this interview, Jack explains the problems with debt and federal quantitative easing.

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China's Financial Crisis Erupts While US 'Pivots' to Destabilize South America
Alternative Visions Radio, 8 January 2016 (35 min 55 sec)

Jack Rasmus takes a look at this past week's major event in the collapse of the China stock market, as well as the resurgence of Neoliberal policies in South America and the US pivot to that continent and destabilization of economies in Venezuela, Brazil and Argentine now underway. What's behind the most recent stock decline in China? Jack explains its relationship to the slowing real economy there, and the pressure to devalue its currency, the Yuan, that is growing. Devaluation coming in China is reflected in investors attempting to take their money and run, thus the stock decline now underway. China government efforts to slow it via 'circuit breakers' is not working as well as before. The real economy-currency-stock nexus will continue. How this all has contagion effects on the rest of the global economy is explained. Jack then looks at the US 'pivot' to South America, and specifically how the US destabilizes economies by wrecking its currency. Global oil and commodity crash, slowing China, and US interest rate hikes are all having major negative effects on South American economies. In this scenario, the US is now attempting to exacerbate Venezuela's currency collapse even further, while attacking it politically and legally. Venezuela is a model of how the US destabilizes a country's currency and therefore economy, as a prelude to re-establishing more friendly Neoliberal governments and policies.

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Transpacific Partnership Free Trade Analysis
Alternative Visions Radio, 9 October 2015 (57 min 56 sec)

Jack takes a look at the leaks concerning provisions of the TPP trade agreement signed this past week. Why the TPP will mean loss of jobs with little or no job creation in the US in return. Why it means reduction in wages will continue. The phony statements by Obama and pundits about its effects, and the verbal maneuverings by Clinton and Republicans. Jack explains how China is not the currency manipulator, but Japan and now the other Asian members of TPP. Special focus on the treaty’s effects on pharmaceutical and health, autos, agriculture, manufacturing, Boeing Corp., and other sectors in the US. Negotiation maneuvers between the US, Australia, Japan and others. Why a vote next year, during election cycle, is more likely to pass rather than less likely. Why Congress will talk the talk, but then pass it. How TPP and free trade is really about US corporations’ foreign direct investment and less about goods exchanges between countries. Jack concludes explaining that the global trade recession now beginning will result in currency declines accelerating in the other countries that will more than offset the tariff cuts. The net result will be no gains for the US and big losses as a result of currency manipulation by other members of the treaty.

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Is the Global Economy Heading for Another Financial Crisis?
Alternative Visions Radio, 8 August 2015 (57 min 51 sec)

Jack Rasmus follows up the previous show on the global economy with an assessment of financial instability that appears to be growing globally as well. Jack briefly discusses how excess debt and income decline and stagnation basically cause financial instability, and explains how the new 200,000 or so global finance capital elite continue to create financial asset bubbles worldwide and how those bubbles appear to be converging. Financial bubbles that appear most unstable include China’s stock markets (Shanghai and Schenzhen), but also global oil and commodity futures, emerging market equity and bond markets, US and global bond ETFs sold by mutual funds, the US and Euro corporate junk bond markets, tech stocks, Eurozone banks, and currency exchange markets that are becoming much more volatile. Also noted are potential serious secondary effects of a lack of liquidity in bond markets in general and effects on US repo markets in turn. The show concludes with a in-depth look at causes behind the current China stock market collapse which, Jack argues, has yet to run its full course and could destabilize financial markets worldwide in the near future. The role of China government policies in causing a runup of 120% in China stocks in just one year is explained, as well as government measures introduced since June 12 of this year to stop the stock slide.

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Is the Global Economy Recovering or Slowing?
Alternative Visions Radio, 25 July 2015 (59 min 35 sec)

To read the public and business press, it appears the US economy is about to accelerate, the Federal Reserve will soon raise interest rates, unemployment is at pre-recession lows, wages are about to rise, housing is recovering. Meanwhile, Europe is growing again now that the Greek crisis is resolved; China has stabilized its stock marke;, and the rest of the world is on a recovery path. But this public spin to the current US and global economic scene does not conform to reality. Jack Rasmus takes listeners on an ‘economic tour’ of the realities in the US and global real economy, where the US continues on a sub-par ‘stop go’ recovery, where China is really growing at 4-5% GDP, not the announced 7%, where China’s stock market collapse, begun in June, has only paused before another turn lower, where Europe QE is failing to generate a sustainable recovery and the ‘Greek Crisis’ is far from over, where Japan’s real economy has stalled (again for the fifth time since 2008), and where emerging markets from Indonesia to Brazil to Turkey are slowing and slipping into recessions. The global oil deflation is entering another decline, global commodities prices and sales are falling further, currency instability is rising, and money capital is flowing back to the US from everywhere, raising rates in the US and slowing economies elsewhere as the US dollar rises.

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Greek Debt Final Negotiations
Alternative Visions Radio, June 27, 2015 (57 min 18 sec)

Jack Rasmus reports on the final positions of the Greek government and the Troika (IMF, ECB, EC) as they enter negotiations this weekend, June 27-28, before the expiration of the current debt payments on June 30 and a possible default on the debt. Jack reviews the most recent positions of the Greeks, provided last week in a comprehensive 11 page document, which was rejected by the Troika on June 24 in toto, the failed negotiations at the highest levels on June 25-26, and the two sides’ demands as last minute negotiations occur June 27-28. The highly class nature of the negotiations are noted—with pensions (deferred wages), sales taxation (impacting workers more), Troika opposition to tax the rich, and Troika demand for full privatizations. The Troika’s emerging Plan B is described (i.e. push Greece to default and maneuver a regime change) vs. the missing Greek Plan B (establish a parallel currency to the Euro) are contrasted. The five major negotiating errors that the Greek government has committed since March are described. The most likely scenario to the final deal on June 30 is outlined—based on extending the negotiations for months more, Troika paying itself for debt with funds it has been denying Greece, in exchange for more concessions still from Greece. (Listeners are encouraged to listen to the Alternative Visions shows of the two preceding weeks as background to the current show.)

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Greek Debt Negotiations Intensify
Alternative Visions Radio, June 20, 2015 (57 min, 46 sec)

Dr. Jack Rasmus provides an update on Greek debt negotiations since last week’s Alternative Visions show and discussion on the origins of the Greek debt. Updates include Troika scenarios outlined at its June 12 meeting in Bratislava, the IMF walkout after, the failed meetings that occurred in Brussels over the weekend of June 13-14, and Greece’s proposals of June 15 rejected again by the Troika. Also discussed are the sabotage of the Greek government negotiators by their own Greek Central Bank, which on June 17 publicly declared Greece should sign the Troika’s latest package; Greek prime minister, Tsipras’, warmly welcomed visit to Russia on the same day; and the failed meeting of June 18 of Euro finance ministers in Luxemburg at which it was expected Greece would concede to the Troika’s position but didn’t. Jack notes the growing statements by German and IMF representatives that a managed default and Greek exit is preferable to continuing Greece’s unresolvable debt crisis. Were Greece to agree to the Troika’s position, and generate a $2-$3 billion a year surplus (by cutting spending and raising sales taxes) that it would take Greece 150 years to pay off the Troika debt. Greece cannot pay and cannot grow out of the crisis, Rasmus argues. Rumors continue to grow that Greece may rearrange its cabinet, replacing hardliners with more amenable cabinet members should it agree to more Troika cuts in exchange for some debt restructuring. The political and economic risks for both sides of continuing negotiations and of default are noted. Default is quite possible, Rasmus notes, but the most likely 60-40 scenario is some kind of more concessions by Greece for some kind of debt restructuring over the next 90 days, as the current extension is extended yet again.

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Origins of the Greek Debt Crisis. Will Greece Default?
Alternative Visions Radio, June 13, 2015 (58 min, 12 sec)

Jack Rasmus discusses the latest events of the past week in the Greek debt negotiations, with the IMF ‘walking out’ of negotiations and both sides, the Troika and Greece appearing to issue ultimatums as to what is unacceptable. Three choices remain as negotiations come down to a June 30 deadline: either Greece defaults (fails to make payments due on June 30 to the IMF when the current extension of the debt agreement expires; the Troika (IMF, ECB, European Commission (finance ministers) continue to insist on a ‘take it or leave it’ position, or both parties—Greece and Troika—agree to extend both the agreement and debt payments due for another 30-60 days and continue negotiating. Jack explains how the latter is most likely, but may not happen nonetheless. Consequences of a default for Greece, the Eurozone markets, and the global economy and banking system are considered. In the second half of the show, Jack explains in detail how Greek debt rose to its current $300 billion, unsustainable levels. The explanation is to be found in the US twin deficits (trade and budget) policies introduced successfully by US capitalists and government in the early 1980s to resurrect the US economy and solidify its global hegemony once again after the crises of the 1970s. Twin deficits were a key element of US neoliberal policies that have worked since 1980 to ensure US dominance. With the creation of the Euro in 1999, northern European bankers and governments attempted to create a similar arrangement within the Eurozone. It worked until the 2008-09 crash, the second European recession of 2012, and the chronic slow growth ever since in Europe. Greek (and Euro periphery) debt rose ever higher with each event, to its unsustainable levels today. Why the Euro twin deficits neoliberal strategy failed.

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Bernie Sanders and the Organizational Question in US Politics
Alternative Visions Radio, May 23, 2015 (59 min, 15 sec)

Jack Rasmus invites seasoned political activists, Steve Early and Alan Benjamin, to discuss the strategic significance, pro and con, of Bernie Sanders' recent announcement of his candidacy for US President and run in the Democratic Party primaries against Hillary Clinton. Both Steve and Alan go back to working with Sanders on campaigns in the 1970s when Sanders entered politics, and then spent 40 years in union and local progressive politics in Richmond and San Francisco, California. Steve and Alan take slightly different positions in offering qualified support to Sanders' just announced presidential run. Commentaries by Steve, Alan, and Jack range from applauding Sanders for raising desperately needed new ideas re. income inequality, taxing the rich, minimum wage, money in politics, free trade, college tuition and debt. In supporting Sanders more directly, Steve critiques the failed history of independent challenges from outside the Democratic party, from Jesse Jackson to Ralph Nader and the Green party. Alan provides a more qualified approval of Sanders' ideas and issues he's raising, but argues Sanders' declared support for the eventual Democratic Party candidate (most likely Hillary) is a political dead end for working and middle classes, as recent history also shows. Jack argues independent candidacies -- whether within the left wing of the Democratic Party or just outside it (Sanders strategy) have not changed anything for decades, as conditions have actually gotten worse as Democrats increasingly support Republican-Corporate positions on free trade, destruction of unions, attacks on public workers, money in politics, business tax cuts, etc. All agree change must come from below, in real independent grass roots movements. Jack raises the question, if 'inside and outside' Democratic Party strategies have both failed, why haven't grass roots movements come together to discuss new strategies and form new 'bottom up' challenges to the status quo.

• Steve Early is a retired, long time CWA union organizer and staff rep, who has been active in local Richmond, Calif., political organizing and fights against Chevron oil. He is author of the recent book, Save Our Unions, by Monthly Review Press.
• Alan Benjamin is a delegate to the San Francisco Central Labor Council, a member of OPEIU, editor of The Organizer progressive socialist newspaper, and a member of the executive committee of the Labor Fightback Network in the US.

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US Economy Stalls Again -- 4th Time in 4 years!
Alternative Visions Radio, May 1, 2015 (1 hour)

Dr. Jack Rasmus analyzes US 1st Quarter GDP numbers, where US economic growth flattened out to a mere 0.2%--the fourth such collapse in the US economy in as many years. Is it due to the weather, as some argue? Is there something wrong with US statistics, showing four collapses since 2009 all occurring in the winter? Or are there real economic explanations for why the US economy periodically surges in the summer then stalls out in the winter, as it has since 2011? Will this winter 2015's stall be followed by another 'temporary surge' in growth this summer? Jack looks beneath the numbers for real explanations for the US economy's continuing 'stop-go' trajectory, identifying patters of one-off, temporary factors that typically have occurred in the 3rd quarter (July-September), only to dissipate in the winter quarters, in turn leading to an over-correction and decline in US GDP and growth repeatedly. It's not the weather. It may be outmoded statistical methods by the US government. But it certainly is due to temporary events that don't result in a sustained economy recovery, Jack argues. Government pre-election spending, restoration of defense spending, business inventory buildups, the global oil glut and US oil shale boom & bust, the US dollar decline and surge effects on US manufacturing-exports, diversion of US business investment into financial assets and offshore markets better account for the US stop-go trajectory, Jack argues. What's missing is steady wage and income growth for 90% of US households and real job creating investment by business in the US.

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How the Rich Get Richer in America
Alternative Visions Radio, April 25, 2015 (1 hour)

Jack Rasmus discusses the recent report that the wealthiest 1%, who own most of the stock in US corporations, will receive more than $1 trillion in stock buybacks and dividend payouts in 2015. Buybacks-dividends delivered $3.8 trillion since the end of the recession in 2009, with another trillion coming this year. And that's only for the largest S&P 500 corporations, Jack explains. Net profits for US corporations totaled more than $5 trillion since 2009 as well. Jack explains how that $5 trillion in profits derived from cost cutting, mostly labor costs, and rising corporate financial asset investment and speculation as well. $5 trillion in profits minus $3.8 trillion in buybacks and dividend payouts, leaves about the $1.3 trillion remaining in undistributed profits still on corporate balance sheets, Jack explains. That's how the rich get richer in America. But that's not how business, politicians and even liberal economists explain income inequality-choosing instead to focus on productivity, tax, CEO pay as causes. None dare touch the corporation as the real source and the conduit for distribution of income and wealth to the 1%, Jack argues. Jack concludes the show with another look at US GDP numbers that will be announced on April 29 for first quarter GDP, following up his comments on a prior April 4 show. There may be a big surprise, he warns, with GDP collapsing again (for the fourth time) to near zero growth, as the USA continues on its 'stop-go' economic scenario and as the current 5-6 years of 'recovery' since the last recession reaches its final years.

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Debunking the Myth of American Economic Exceptionalism
Alternative Visions Radio, April 4, 2015 (1 hour)

Dr. Jack Rasmus turns the focus of today's show from the global economy to the USA economy specifically. Is the USA economy 'exceptional', i.e. growing robustly while the rest of the global economy slows or stagnates? Rasmus explains that assumption of US Economic Exceptionalism is a myth. The myth is based on US GDP growth last summer 2014 of 4-5% in GDP terms and the creation of more than 200,000 jobs a month throughout last year. Rasmus looks at the data and economic forces behind the two arguments of exceptionalism -- 2014 GDP and jobs -- to show the arguments were based on temporary factors which have already come to an end: GDP growth in fourth quarter 2014 already fell to 2.2%, and Rasmus predicts it will decline to well less than 1% GDP when first quarter 2015 GDP numbers are reported in May. Today's latest jobs report for March is also a return to a sub-par 126,000 jobs created, when forecasts by economists were for 248,000. Rasmus explains that 2014 temporary economic effects from manufacturing exports, government defense spending before elections, another business false inventory buildup, the shale industrial boom, and household retail and auto sales have dissipated in the past three months, with the result of the US economy returning to its longer term, below average, long term growth trajectory of 2% or less in GDP terms for the rest of 2015 -- i.e. more of the 'stop-go' scenario that has been the US case the past six years. First quarter GDP data, and lagging job data to come, will show US recovery has once again failed to 'take off'. A scenario basically no different than that for Japan and Europe (and now emerging markets that are sliding into recessions as well). The USA economy is simply continuing to 'stagnate' at a 1%-1.7% long term growth level, while Europe and Japan stagnate and a lower growth level, Rasmus argues. There's nothing at all 'exceptional' going on going on with this US economic scenario; just more of the same that has been occurring for six years -- and not unlike the stop-go in Europe and Japan.

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The Bomb, the Fuse, and the Dud: Part 2
Eurozone's New QE Will Make Economy Worse
(Greece’s Syriza vs. Euro Bankers)
Alternative Visions Radio, January 31, 2015 (56 minutes, 19 seconds)

Jack Rasmus continues the three part series (last week: the ECB’s QE ‘Bomb’), this week focusing on last week’s election of Greece’s Syriza party, which has promised the Euro ‘Troika’ (IMF, ECB, European Commission-SFSF Fund) forgive at least a third of Greece current 317 billion Euro debt. How is it that Greece ended up with 317b of debt? Why is 270b of that (85%) in hands of the public entities, i.e. the Troika, and only 15% held by private investors? How did Germany, Holland, and northern Euro banks benefit the most from creating the debt? And why have they been insisting on continued austerity, and therefore depression, in Greece? Jack explains how the origins of Greece’s debt lie in policies that followed the creation of the Euro currency union in 1999 and how that union specifically benefited the northern Europe economies at the expense of Greece and the rest of the Eurozone periphery. The arrangements, Jack explains, constitute Eurozone’s version of Neoliberalism, a now failing caricature of the USA created global neoliberal policy answer to the crisis of the 1970s. The USA’s ‘twin deficits’ and global money capital circular flow neoliberal solution after 1980 was replicated in Europe on a smaller scale after 1999, but Eurozone neoliberalism began to fail after 2010, as Germany and northern Europe abandoned providing capital to Greece and the Eurozone periphery in favor of focusing on China and emerging markets after 2010. The residue left is unsustainable debt levels in Greece and elsewhere and the prospect of never ending austerity that ensures decades more of a debt driven depression in Greece. The current negotiating positions of the northern Troika and banks vs. Greece’s new Syriza government are explained, and possible scenarios in coming weeks. Meanwhile the ‘fuse’ is lite in Greece for the Euro economy, as a 10 billion euro payment comes due in 90 days. Which side will ‘blink’? How will the standoff be resolved? Listen this week’s show for some possibilities to come.

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The Bomb, the Fuse and the Dud (Part 1)
Eurozone's New QE Will Make Economy Worse
Alternative Visions Radio, January 24, 2015 (1 hour, 27 seconds)

Jack Rasmus discusses yesterday’s big announcement of a massive $1.5 trillion Quantitative Easing (QE) money injection program by the European Central Bank, and its consequences for the Eurozone and global economy. After nearly $9 trillion in total QEs by US, UK, Japan and now the Eurozone, the global economy continues to slowly drift into recession and deflation. Claims by central banks and politicians that QEs are about growing the economy, lowering unemployment or raising inflation to a stable 2% are debunked as empirically false. QEs are about bailing out financial institutions and the new finance capital elite and then ballooning their balance sheets well beyond bailout as well. Jack explains the several flaws and consequences of QE: it doesn’t result in lending for real investment, leads to financial speculation and bubbles, accelerates incomes of super wealthy (via stock buybacks, dividend payouts, etc.), raises global private debt by business, reduces incomes of middle classes, sets off competitive devaluations and currency wars, leads to real goods deflation and financial asset market inflation (stocks, junk bonds, forex, etc.), and accelerates global income inequality trends. Jack explains the connections between QE and fiscal austerity policies. And represents a growing desperation by financial capital elites and their institutions to ensure growing incomes for themselves by artificial means (free money) and at the direct expense of incomes of the rest of society. The linkage of QE and ‘labor market reforms’ (attacks on wages) are noted.

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Economic Consequences of the Global Oil Price Crash
Alternative Visions Radio, December 13, 2014 (59 minutes, 40 seconds)

Dr. Jack Rasmus discusses the current global oil price deflation that began in earnest last June and is now accelerating, driving global oil from a prior 2014 high of $115/barrel to a recent low of $59. Jack explains how the net effect on the global economy will likely prove to b significantly negative overall, and that the price decline could fall as low as $40/barrel in coming months. The impact on Emerging Market Economies, already seriously slowing or in recession, will also prove significant-causing their currencies to collapse even further and in turn generating capital flight, declining credit availability, slowing investment, rising inflation, and inability of emerging market businesses and governments to finance previous incurred debt. Oil price deflation will almost certainly push Europe and Japan into general deflation and further recession, and toward more QE money injections that will further generate asset price bubbles. Rasmus predicts China's current economic slowdown will continue in turn as Europe, Japan and Emerging markets slow their purchases of China exports. The contrary popular USA notion that lower oil prices mean lower gasoline prices and therefore more spending by USA consumers and businesses is challenged. In conclusion, Jack discusses how oil deflation globally could set off another round of financial instability worldwide, and how it will likely mean the 'shale gas/oil fracking' boom in the USA will now stall and could potentially set off a 'junk bond market' crisis in the USA similar to the subprime market real estate bust of 2007-09. Will the global oil glut and deflation lead to another 'Asian Meltdown', this time even more geographically dispersed; and, in the USA, will it lead to another 'oil patch' crash that occurred in the US southwest in the 1980s-this time affecting North Dakota-Wyoming, Alaska, and Pennsylvania as well as Texas and the southwest?

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Economic Predictions Review 2013-14
and New Predictions 2014-15
Alternative Visions Radio, August 23, 2014 (57 minutes, 47 seconds)

Dr. Jack Rasmus reviews his predictions for the US and global economy made June 2013 in Z magazine, and makes new predictions for the US and global economy for the coming 12 months. Review of 2013-14 include forecasts for global economic crisis recessions, US Federal Reserve policy, US tax legislation, housing recovery, manufacturing, jobs and wages, Europe's bank and debt crises, China GDP, global trade, Japan's Abenomics policy introduction, the convergence of capitalist policy worldwide, and the Ukraine economy (made in early 2013). For the coming year: Federal Reserve interest rates, US tax cuts, US stock and junk bond markets, Europe's Central Bank and QE, Euro banking instability, wage compression and austerity policy in Europe, China stimulus, currency and challenges to the USA, the future of Japan's Abenomics and instability in Emerging Market economies.

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Shadow Banking Concerns Growing: Part 1
Alternative Visions Radio, June 21, 2014 (56 minutes, 28 seconds)

Dr. Jack Rasmus reviews the growing role and influence of shadow banks in the global financial system, amidst recent growing concern in official circles of the need for their regulation and control to avoid another even deeper financial crash in the future. Rasmus addresses the recent editorial of Mark Carney, chair of the UK's central bank, the Bank of England, last week on the need to quickly regulate the shadow banking system, and the daily feature stories in the global financial paper, The Financial Times, on shadow banks following Carney's editorial. Dr. Rasmus argues that "money capital is like water flowing downhill and cannot be regulated in the long run". Jack documents the explosion in liquidity and investible financial assets in the global shadow banking system since the 1960s and since the crash of 2008 in particular, and explains the fundamental linkage between the new global financial elite-the global high net worth individual investors (HNWIs)-and the shadow banks as their now preferred investing institutions as they shift their wealth recently from traditional banks to the shadow sector. Referring to recent reports by the Boston Consulting Group and Capgemini, Jack shows how investible assets of HNWIs and the shadow banks have grown faster since 2008 than during the decade preceding the crash of 2008. While global total private wealth has risen by more than $40 trillion, from $111 trillion in 2008 to more than $152 trillion today, the top 200,000 HNWIs share has risen even faster and now exceeds $53 trillion. Jack explains how the growing concentration and acceleration of liquid, investible assets within the HNWIs and Shadow banks is building the preconditions for another, perhaps even greater, financial crash, as debt-leverage based investing and securitization grows again. Jack notes that Bank of England Carney's recent editorial represents a growing awareness among central bankers that their influence over the shadow banking system may be eroding even further than pre-2008, laying the ground for even greater central banks' difficulty in
re-stabilizing the global capitalist system in the event of another crash.

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Europe's Continuing Epic Recession
Alternative Visions Radio, May 24, 2014 (59 minutes, 22 seconds)

Jack Rasmus explains how Europe's 'stop-go' recovery and its version of an 'Epic recession' (i.e. short, shallow recoveries followed by economic relapses and double dip recessions) is proving even worse than the USA's experience since 2009. While the USA's economy has slowed to zero or less on three different occasions since 2009 (in 2011, 2012, and now 2014), Europe's economy experienced an even worse bona fide double dip recession, even weaker recoveries between, and now appears headed to another slowdown after only a year of a paltry 0.2% GDP growth. As Depression conditions continue in Southern Europe and the Euro periphery economies, Northern Europe economies (France, Netherlands, Finland, etc.) are also now beginning to experience declining real investment, falling exports, and slowing household consumption as well. Meanwhile, governments continue 'austerity' policies, struggle with a continuing fragile banking system and government debt, and continue to 'talk down' the crisis. Jack explains the role of European Central Bank monetary policies in Europe and their connection to continuing fiscal austerity policies. Jack also explains the effects of changing China and Japan policies on Europe, the Ukraine crisis effect on Europe, and why the drift toward deflation Eurozone-wide will continue. He concludes with discussion of why the United Kingdom's is experiencing an artificial recovery based on an induced property bubble in London and south England, with Cameron policies echoing George Bush-Alan Greenspan USA policies of 2002-03, in what represents a desperate attempt to engineer a short term, unstable recovery before an upcoming national election, that will inevitably collapse afterward with serious economic consequences.

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The USA and Global Economy Today:
A 3rd Phase of Economic Crisis
A.P.A.F., April 12, 2014 (1 hr 6 min 15 sec)

At the Alameda Public Affairs Forum, Dr. Jack Rasmus reviews the major trends and forces driving the US and global economy today: the Slowing of the China economy and growing shadow bank instability, Emerging Markets' volatility, currency decline, capital flight and slowdown, the Eurozone's stagnant drift toward deflation, the failure of Japan's new Abenomics policies to generate sustained real economic recovery, and the USA's continuing 'stop-go' economic recovery. Jack explains how global problems of real investment, real job creation, and policymakers' preoccupation with monetary solutions will mean growing tendency toward global economic slowdown at best, and rising potential for new global recession.

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The Ukraine Crisis: Political & Economic Dimensions Update
Alternative Visions Radio, March 15, 2014 (54 min 12 sec)

Dr. Jack Rasmus and guest, Steve Lendman, revisit the latest in the Ukrainian crisis, discussing its political and economic dimensions. In the first half hour, Dr. Rasmus raises 10 Unanswered Questions about the political coup of February 22: Who were the snipers, why is no investigation underway, what is the composition of the neo-fascist parties on the street (Svoboda, Right Sector, UPA, etc.), what official positions have they assumed in the new interim Ukrainian government, why did U.S. undersecretary of State, Virginia Nuland, admit to $5 billion spent by the U.S. on Ukrainian politics, what are Nuland’s ‘Neocon’ credentials, and is there a deep government in the U.S. driving U.S. foreign policy? Dr. Rasmus also raises the question about what are the crony capitalist connections in the Ukraine with US business sectors? Rasmus identifies the key neo-fascist and crony capitalists and their current roles. Steve Lendman then gives his view of the Crimea referendum and perspective on the Ukrainian crisis, which he calls the worst and most dangerous since the 1962 Berlin crisis. In the second half of the show, Dr. Rasmus discusses economic issues, focusing on who benefits and who pays from the current economic crisis, including western Europe, the U.S.A., Russia, and the Ukraine itself.

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China’s Slowing Economy and Rising Financial Instability
Alternative Visions Radio, March 1, 2014 (51 min 15 sec)

Dr. Rasmus takes a deep look into China’s economy, asking if it is heading for a hard landing? Will its growing financial bubbles soon burst? Rasmus discusses reasons why China’s economy is slowing, and its potential impacts on emerging markets, Europe, and the rest of the global economy. China’s growing financial instability is also explored, including the role of global shadow banks and the 200,000 richest Ultra High Net Worth Individuals (aka biggest global finance capitalists and their primary financial institutions) stoking the financial bubbles and instability in China. How are they together driving China’s currency and real estate bubbles? What’s China trying to do to slow speculation in its currency, local housing, and local investment markets? Why is China total debt is now well above crisis levels? Are they driving China toward a Lehman Moment financial crisis? Rasmus concludes with discussion of China’s recent shift to lower the value of its Yuan to reign in the shadow banks and global speculators, and what that could mean if it loses control not only for China’s economic hard landing but for the world economy as well

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An Emerging Global Economic Perfect Storm? by Dr. Jack Rasmus
Alternative Visions Radio, Feb 19, 2014 (53 min 28 sec)

Dr. Jack Rasmus explains why the global economic crisis that emerged in 2007-08 may now be entering a 3rd Phase. Dr. Rasmus discusses what's happening now with the economies in China, Japan, Emerging Markets (India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, So. Africa and others), and Europe. Why is China on a long term growth slowdown path? Why is Japan's USA-like central bank QE money injection policy failing to stimulate Japan's real economy and leading to Japan's fourth dip recession since 2008? Why is Europe drifting toward deflation and its recovery stagnating, with France now the bad boy economy of Europe? Why are the emerging market economies locked into a growing crisis, with massive capital flight flowing back to the west, falling currency values, and inevitable slowing economies? What are the possible contagion effects between the three stormfronts-China, Emerging Markets, Eurozone-and how are mutually amplifying feedbacks about to exacerbate problems in each-creating a three front global economic perfect storm? Finally, what might this Emerging Economic Perfect Storm mean for the USA economy, once again slowing in 2014 after its latest false start last summer? (For more on this topic, read Dr. Rasmus' forthcoming March 2014 'Z' magazine article, The Emerging Perfect Storm and his last October 2013 'Z' article, The Slowing Global Economy, as well as shorter entries on his blog, jackrasmus.com, since January)

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The Unraveling of Obamacare: A Progressive Critique,
On Dr. Rasmus' radio show, Alternative Visions
November 13, 2013 (54 min 21 sec)

Dr. Jack Rasmus and guest, Dr. Margaret Flowers, provide a progressive critique of Obamacare and its growing problems of implementation and coverage. Dr. Rasmus explains how, and why, Obamacare will continue to unravel in 2014-15 and potentially implode, in whole or part, by 2016. Rasmus explains in detail how Obamacare has delayed and exempted businesses from participation in the program; why business penalties for failure to participate are insufficient; why subsidies for individuals to participate are inadequate and won't work; why enrollment will continue to seriously lag projections by wide margins in 2014; why the Act is the death-knell for union negotiation health plans; how businesses and health insurance corporations area increasingly 'gameing' the system. Rasmus also explains how the Act is really a scheme for 'moving the money around', from those who now have coverage to those who don't -- where the money is moved first through the health insurance companies that skim off excess profits in the process -- and how Obamacare should be understood as the extension of prior attempts to privatize health care via George W. Bush's Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) in the past decade and Bill Clinton's 'Managed Health Care' before that.

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The Coming Debt Ceiling Deal 2.0,
Alternative Visions Radio, October 16, 2013 (55 min 36 sec)

Dr. Jack Rasmus focuses on the latest debt ceiling-government shutdown negotiations in Washington, and his prediction of the past weeks that a deal would be reached. That deal appears will occur today, October 16, 2013—at least the first phase. The real negotiations now begin, Rasmus predicts, involving trading off major spending cuts targeting social security and medicare—plus more corporate tax cuts in the pending "Tax Code Overhaul" bill moving through the US House—for a still longer term debt ceiling and government budget agreement that will all occur early next year. Dr. Rasmus explains how Obamacare was never a real issue in the negotiations, and how the real strategy was deficit cuts for debt ceiling. Also explained is how the current settlement is a repeat of the August 2011 debt ceiling 1.0 agreement, cutting spending by $1 trillion, and the 2012 fiscal cliff settlement cutting spending by another $1.2 trillion (the sequester) along with $4 trillion in permanent extension of the Bush tax cuts. It represents what Dr. Rasmus calls the "Well Orchestrated Dance" (2.0) between the two wings of the ruling capitalist party. (see Dr. Rasmus’s blog, jackrasmus.com, for prior articles on the fiscal cliff of December 2012 and debt ceiling 1.0 deal of August 2011).

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The AFLCIO Convention & New Union-Community Partnerships
Alternative Visions Radio, September 18, 2013 (57 min 13 sec)

Dr. Jack Rasmus welcomes two long-time union officers, Steve Early of the CWA and Carl Finamore of the Machinists, who attended the recent AFLCIO convention where delegates recently discussed and voted on whether to bring community groups (NAACP, La Raza, Sierra Club, etc.) into the union federation as a new kind of membership. Both Steve and Carl have more than 30 years each of experience in the US labor movement, which they bring to the discussion. Jack introduces the show and discussion with an explanation of the dimensions of the deep decline in union labor in the USA, its failing organizing and bargaining strategies at the company level and the political level with its alliance with the Democratic Party, as well as the consequences of both. Steve and Carl discuss the resolution and scope of the decision at the AFLCIO convention to forge a deeper partnership with community organizations. How can union labor stop and reverse its slide? Jack and guests debate whether some kind of new grass roots organizational structure uniting labor and community organizations must occur if union labor in the US is to survive and grow.

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Jack Rasmus Presentation on the Global Economy,
Alameda Public Affairs Forum,
September 14, 2013 (1 hr 10 min 9 sec)

Update on the Current State of the US & Global Economy

Dr. Jack Rasmus presents his latest update on the condition of the US and global economies as of late summer 2013. Addressed are the struggling US economic recovery, the stagnating Eurozone, the slowing of the Chinese economy, and prospects for the BRICS, the BITTS, and Japan. Jack provides a critique of monetary policies of central banks worldwide, led by US quantitative easing (QE) and zero-bound interest rate policies. Jack argues that global QE is now proving increasingly counter-productive to growth, generating more speculative bubbles, and, as it continues, is rendering investors increasingly dependent upon and addicted to free money policies of central banks. On the fiscal policy side, various forms and degrees of 'austerity' continue to hold back global growth and recovery as well. Future scenarios for the US and other key sectors of the global economy (China, Eurozone, UK, Japan, Emerging Markets) are offered and predictions made.

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Will the AFL-CIO Decide to Add Community Groups as Members?
Alternative Visions Radio, August 7, 2013 (55 min 6 sec)

Recently, AFLCIO President, Richard Trumka, announced that the AFL-CIO, the largest union federation in the US, was in discussions with national community organizations like the NAACP, La Raza, Sierra Club to discuss membership of community organizations into the AFL-CIO. Reportedly, the matter is scheduled for consideration at the upcoming September 2013 convention of the AFL-CIO. According to a recent article in the July 27 Wall St. Journal, the potential organizational change will include granting community groups "decision making power" within the AFLCIO. In the following, Dr. Jack Rasmus interviews 3 long time unionists active in labor-community protests to discuss the strategic significance of the possible decision and organizational change at the top level of the AFL-CIO, raising the question: Is this a major shift in the AFL-CIO and American Union Movement that portends greater cooperative action between organized Labor in the US and community groups? Or is it just a fascade for cooperating on lobbying and electing Democrats in the 2014 midterm elections? Jack's guests discuss not only the proposed changes at the coming AFL-CIO convention, but also developments at the local level in labor-community alliances and action-in California, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.

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Alternative Visions Radio Show
New York, June 12, 2013 (53 min 51 sec)

Dr. Rasmus Predicts the US and Global Economy for 2013-14

In his June 12 Alternative Visions radio show downloaded here, Jack Rasmus discusses his comprehensive updated forecast on the current state and future direction of both the US and global economy. Reviewing the outcome of his prior predictions made 18 months ago, January 2012, Jack explains why the global economy -- and the US economy -- are slowing and will continue to do so. Why more European economies are slipping deeper into recession and the southern periphery of Europe will remain in depression; why China is slowing and will fall below 7% in GDP; why Japan's recent monetary stimulus will fail; and why other BRICS are now stagnating or slowing as well. Jack then looks at US GDP trends, and key sectors of consumer spending, housing, jobs, manufacturing-exports, and government spending and explains why they are in decline, stagnating, or soon will do so (housing 'recovery'). Problems in global central bank monetary policies, emerging currency wars, and bond and stock market immanent corrections are explained. Jack concludes with 15 new predictions for the coming 18 months.

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Why Social Security & Medicare Are NOT in Crisis
San Francisco, February 28, 2013 (36 min 13 sec)

Dr. Jack Rasmus Presentation to the Progressive Democrats of America, San Francisco

Jack Rasmus exposes the lies perpetrated by Politicians and Media about the financial state of Social Security and Medicare today. He offers alternative small tax changes that would instead lower the retirement age, increase retirement benefits, fully fund Medicare Part B and D, and create a surplus to pay for Medicare for All (Universal, Single Payer Health Care). He explains how neither of these programs, nor the country itself, are 'broke' but that trillions of dollars are instead being hoarded by the rich and corporations, who are trying to make retirees pay for the economic crisis and deficits they created.

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Alternative Visions Radio Show
New York, February 6, 2013 (48 min 5 sec)

Jack Rasmus on GDP and the Slowing US Economy

Dr. Jack Rasmus offers an analysis of the current state of the US economy contrary to the hype of recent official and pro-business commentary. A closer look at the US economy at year end 2012 and projections for the next several months is the topic of discussion. Why did US GDP collapse last quarter? What will it look like going forward? Why the jobs numbers for January were in fact disappointing? Is there really a housing sector recovery underway? Dr. Rasmus will explain why the dual dangers of excess debt amidst declining household income for more than 100 million families is the real driver of the US economy and why the US economy will continue to 'bump along the bottom' and continue to stagnate.

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Alameda Public Affairs Forum,
November 10, 2012 (55 min 37 sec)

Predicting the Fiscal Cliff Outcome

Jack provides his analysis of the current 'Fiscal Cliff' negotiations underway in Congress between Obama and US House Republicans, that will determine the future of US 'austerity' programs in 2013 and beyond. Jack makes several specific predictions of the possible and most likely outcomes, none of which will change the basic trajectory of the US economy in 2013-14 and the drift toward a new global recession now occurring.

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Palo Alto Community Center Presentation on the Economy,
June 13, 2012 (1 hr 25 min)

"Jack Rasmus On the Current US Economic Slowdown and his Book, Obama's Economy"

Sponsored by the Peninsula Peace & Justice Center, Jack Rasmus provides a 1 hour, 25 minute, presentation on the state of the US economy three years after the recession officially was to have ended. Based on material in Jack's new book, Obama's Economy, Jack explains why US economic recovery will continue to lag and why risks of double dip in 2013 are rising.

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(Note: This audio presentation is also available on video DVD, along with a 66-slide Powerpoint slideshow, when purchased together with Jack's book, Obama's Economy. Click here to view the homepage of this website and the buttons for ordering the DVD + Powerpoint file with the book. All three -- book, DVD, and slides -- only $27.50 plus shipping.)

Alameda Public Affairs Forum, Alameda, CA,
June 9, 2012 (1 hr 13 min 38 sec)

"Why the U.S. Economy At Mid-Year 2012 Is Faltering Again," Rasmus's Predictions in His Latest Book, Obama's Economy: Recovery for the Few, Are Coming True.

Jack provides a full overview of his book, Obama's Economy, released this past April, that predicted the current phase of the U.S. and global economies' growing instability. He covers the reasons for the faltering recovery, the failure of policies to date, and predicts the likely double dip recession in 2013. He then explains how his own Alternative Program for Economic Recovery could solve the problems.

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Alameda Public Affairs Forum, Alameda, CA,
October 8, 2011 (1 hr 6 min 12 sec)

Jack Speaks Again at the Alameda Public Affairs Forum on the US Economy: Obama's Jobs Program, Emerging Double Dip Recession, and Global Economy on the Brink.

Jack provides an detailed explanation why the US economy has not, and will not soon, recover and why it is undergoing an 'economic relapse' that will eventually result in a double dip recession. He explains why Obama's three recovery programs have failed; who benefited and who didn't after 2009; why the recovery to date has been the weakest on record since 1945; and explains the real causes of the deficits and debt. He concludes with an explanation of the slowing global economy and the emerging banking crisis in Europe, and what kind of alternative recovery program is necessary.

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Why Is There No Recovery for Main Street?
A Talk Sponsored by the Peninsula Peace and Action Committee, Palo Alto, Calif., April 28, 2011 (1 hr 13 min 2 sec)

Jack explains why the Obama 'Recovery' of the past two years has benefited banks, corporations, and the wealthiest households but not workers, homeowners, and the rest of us.

He provides economic detail why Obama fiscal stimulus has not worked and why the Federal Reserve's monetary policies of QE1 and QE2 have benefited the stock market, global commodity speculators, and wealthy investors. There has been no jobs program or recovery, home foreclosures continue to rise, and States and Cities are cutting jobs and services. He warns of the coming right wing attack on social security, medicare and medicaid as the next corporate driven offensive and more tax cuts for corporations and the rich.

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An Alternative Program for Economic Recovery
A Presentation to Teamsters Local 808 in New York City
March 19, 2011 (46 min 17 sec)

Jack talks to the Teamsters Membership About What Programs Are Necessary for Recovery for All

Jack lays out specific proposals for creating jobs, saving homeowners from foreclosure, solving the fiscal crisis of states and cities, and the deficit that are not being discussed by Democrats and Republican politicians. He stresses it's time to take action, and not just more talk.

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Jack Rasmus Analyzes "Obama's Failing Recovery"
A Presentation to the San Mateo Peace Action Group
October 10, 2010 (59 min 34 sec)

In a major public presentation, Jack explains why the economic recovery clearly began to falter since this past summer. As predicted in his new book, EPIC RECESSION, the jobs and housing markets continue to decline, while the rest of the economy also is now slowing once again. Jack discusses the relationship of the slowdown to "Type I" epic recessions, the Fed's upcoming moves, and growing global currency competition.

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Jack Rasmus explains his new book, 'Epic Recession', and future
predictions for the economy:
A Presentation to the Alameda Public Affairs Forum,
June 12, 2010 (1 hr 43min 16 seconds)

Jack provides a full overview of his recent book, EPIC RECESSION: PRELUDE TO GLOBAL DEPRESSION, summarizing his predictions for 2010 and to come in 2011-13. An Epic Recession is not a normal recession and may yet descend into global depression. The emerging double dip confirms another step on the latter trajectory.

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Jack Rasmus Explains How His Book, 'Epic Recession', IS Predicting the Current Economy
A talk with TV Host Paul George, of Channel 27
May 4, 2010 (58 min.)

Jack explains how the current crisis is following the trajectory of what he calls 'Epic Recession', in his new book being released May 11, 2010. Jack discusses how the present 'recovery' in the US cannot be sustained without conclusively addressing the 25 million jobless and 7-10 million foreclosures, how US banks are lending to speculators again and not to create jobs,and what the emerging crisis in Greece and Europe (and soon China) will result in a renewed intensity of the crisis, which has many similarities historically to prior crises in 1907 and 1929, and unlike other post-1945 recessions. Jack predicts (on May 4) the stock markets will correct another 15-20% and housing prices will resume falling.

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Economic Crisis v. Economic Empire:
End of the Beginning and Beginning of the End
Keynote speech to Ecumenical Peace Institute, October 25, 2009 (43 min)

Jack Rasmus talks about the potential impact of the continuing U.S. economic crisis on the future of the American Empire. The possible effects of the coming multi-trillion dollar U.S. Budget deficits on U.S. dominance of international economic institutions and the role of the dollar as a global currency. Will it continue? Or collapse? Jack explains why and why not, and the centrality of the U.S.-China economic relationships.

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Origins of the Economic Crisis
And Program for Long-Term Recovery
May 16, 2009 (1 hour 19 min 55 sec)

As a follow up to the May 9 Central Labor Council Teach-In on the Economic Crisis, Jack Rasmus provides an hour-and-a-half follow-up workshop on the economic crisis, how it originated, where it's going, and what can be done. Jack traces the crisis from the 1980s and the growing income inequality, speculative investment, and growing financial and economic instabilitiy of the past thirty years in a comprehensive and broad overview of the crisis.

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Are We On the Brink of Depression?
Jack Rasmus Explains 'Why and Why Not' at the Left Forum in New York,
April 18, 2009 (23 min)

Jack Rasmus puts the current financial and economic crisis in historical perspective, explaining how the Great Depression of the 1930s is similar and different from the 'Epic' Recession of today. He clarifies various myths about the Great Depression and confusions among economists and the left today on the nature of the current economic crisis., why the Obama bank bailout will fail, and why official talk of 'green shoots' of recovery now allegedly emerging will prove wrong. Jack further critiques the Left for not focusing enough on proposals and program for addressing the crisis, and discusses some of his ideas about a new kind of banking structure that needs to emerge.

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Jack Rasmus Explains the True Economic Cost of the War
Presentation to US Labor Against War at SEIU Union Hall;
March 19, 2009 (30 min)

Dr. Jack Rasmus explains how the true cost of war since 2003 is now approaching $4 trillion. He compares that cost to an additional $6 trillion cost of bank bailouts since 2007 and a further $4 trillion hidden in offshore tax havens by corporations and wealthy investors. He explains how the same business groups benefits from the fourteen trillion dollars, while 90 million plus middle and working class American families earning less than $80,000 per year pay the lion's share of the bill.

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Will the Obama Economic Recovery Plan Succeed?
Presentation at the Alameda Public Affairs Forum, February 28, 2009 (57 min)

Dr. Jack Rasmus provides a comprehensive analysis and critique of the 5-Part Obama Economic Recovery Plan. Rasmus discusses the $787 Billion Stimulus Package, the PPIF and TALF Bank Bailout proposals, the Housing Affordability Plan, and the early 2009 Obama Budget and Tax proposals. Dr. Rasmus makes predictions for the U.S. and global economy for 2009 and beyond.

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Jack Rasmus speaks to the Labor Party about a Program for Economic Recovery, San Jose, CA, Nov. 13, 2008

Jack explains the broad picture of the current economic crisis and its root causes in growing income inequality in America, runaway financial speculation, and the policies of corporate America and its allies since 1980. He then provides a 15 point program for addressing the crisis and the rapidly deepening recession.

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The Speculative Investment Origins of the Financial Crisis,
Presentation to the San Mateo Peace and Justice, Unitarian Church

Dr. Jack Rasmus explains how the roots of the current financial crisis lie in the structural changes in Finance Capital since the 1980s, the shift toward speculative investment, and the accumulation of nearly $30 trillion in banking and corporate debt. The Debt unwinding is causing deflation, defaults, and a rapid descent into Epic Recession. Dr. Rasmus critiques the Obama program as fundamentally incapable of containing the deepening crisis.

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The Banking Panic of 2008 and Deepening Economic Crisis,
Presentation at St. Mary's College, Moraga, CA

Dr. Jack rasmus explains why the root causes of the financial crisis lie deeper than just financial deregulation or the past monetary policies of Greenspan-Bernanke — ie. in the changing structure of 21st century Finance Capital. global Income Inequality trends, and the explosion of Speculative financial forms. He explains why the current liquidity solution policies of Treasury Secretary, Paulson, and Fed Chairman, Bernanke, have failed to date and will continue to do so. Prof. Rasmus then presents his own 12-Point Program for containing the crisis and emerging Epic Recession.

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Financial Crisis & Epic Recession,
Presentation at the Alameda Public Affairs Forum

Dr. Jack Rasmus explains the current financial crisis, its historic origins going back to the 1980s as well as more recent origins since 2001 as a consequence of Bush policies. Hear how the crisis is much more than a housing market collapse, how it has spread to numerous credit markets in the U.S. and globally, and how it is being transmitted during 2008-09 to the real economy globally producing what Dr. Rasmus calls an Epic recession — a new event unlike any seen since the 1930s; not a typical recession and not yet depression. Hear how the ultimate origins of the crisis and recession lie in the $30 trillion plus debt accumulated by government, business and consumers since 1980 as the U.S. economy has entered a period of long term decline.

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Trillion Dollar Income Shift,
Presentation at the Alameda Public Affairs Forum

Dr. Jack Rasmus addresses the root causes of accelerating income inequality in the U.S. since the late 1970s. Hear how today more than $1 trillion in income every year is being shifted from the roughly 91 million American households earning less than $80,000 to the wealthiest 1 million households of millionaire and billionaire investors and their corporations. Rasmus shows how the $1 trillion annual income shift has been caused by the accumulated policies of corporate America and political administrations from Ronald Reagan, George Bush, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. The presentation identifies specific dollar amounts contributed by each of the policies and considers the long term consequences for the U.S. and global economies, financial instability, and global recession.

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The War At Home: Economic Class War in America
Presentation at the Alameda Public Affairs Forum

Dr. Rasmus describes the radical restructuring of the economy and polity in the U.S. by corporate America and its political allies, which began in the late 1970s and continues to the present. The fourth such restructuring in the course of the last century, Rasmus describes in detail, from 1978 to 2005, how fundamental shifts have occurred in corporate-government policies involving shifting of tax burdens, free trade, deunionization, industrial and financial deregulation, a thirty year pay freeze, replacement of regular with part time-temp jobs, job offshoring, health care benefits reduction and cost shifting, destruction of traditional pensions, and the theft of the $4 trillion social security surplus. Rasmus provides specific proposals for reversing the policies and discusses the organizational crisis of American unions.

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Million Worker March Forum,
Teamsters Hall, Washington D.C.

Jack speaks on the current Corporate Offensive against unions and workers in America to a gathering of Teamsters and other unionists on the eve of the Million Worker March, 2006, in Washington, D.C.

Jack discusses corporate and government policies that have been designed to effectively destroy the American trade union movement. Approximately 40 minutes presentation.

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Origins of the Economic Crisis And Program for Long-Term Recovery

Are We On the Brink of Depression?

Jack Rasmus Explains the True Economic Cost of the War

Will the Obama Economic Recovery Plan Succeed?

Jack Rasmus Speaks to the Labor Party About a Program for Economic Recovery

The Speculative Investment Origins of the Financial Crisis

The Banking Panic of 2008 and Deepening Economic Crisis

Financial Crisis & Epic Recession

Trillion Dollar Income Shift

The War At Home: Economic Class War in America