Articles

by Dr Jack Rasmus
copyright 2022
This past week the US Senate rejected the pending Voting Rights bills that would provide some protection against the wave of state level legislation enacting Voter Suppression and Gerrymandering US House seats to protect incumbents in the Republican controlled \’red\’ states. As Voter Suppression and Gerrymandering measures accelerate, with serious implications for elections in 2022 and 2024, the green light has been flashed by the US Senate they can proceed. The Senate Voting Rights bills rejected by that body were defeated by a vote of 48-52 in that body, the deciding votes by Democrats plus all 50 Republicans. The article discusses some of the consequences for US Democracy decline and foreign policy, including the current growing confrontation of US and Russia over the Ukraine

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
Dr. Rasmus explains the Great Strike wave of 2021 now occurring in the USA. Why is it happening, mostly the non-union work force. What are the causes and forces behind the at least 5 million American workers refusing to return to their former jobs. Why the opening of the US economy in the 2nd quarter 2021 has hit a wall in the 3rd, declining from initially 900,000 a month April-June to less than 200,000 per month by September. Rasmus describes how the current strike wave compares to the two previous major strike waves in the US in 1970-71 and 1945-46. What\’s different and what\’s the same.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2021
The USA pullout from Afghanistan represents a general retreat from US military and political influence throughout central asia, to be followed shortly by further US pullback from the middle east as well. The US elites have decided the expenditure of $10 trillion in expanding US empire efforts in the region(s) has produced little for the effort, as America confronts more serious threats to empire by China, Russia, and climate change. The \’new\’ wars of technology-economic competition with China (AI, 5G, cybersecurity, etc.) will cost $10 trillion more over the next decade + costs of climate change + costs of economic instability at home. US elites have decided they can\’t maintain both spending on advancing empire into middle east and central asia AND finance costs of new \’wars\’ with China, Russia, and Nature itself. The US imperial project has therefore peaked and will (slowly) subside over next decade and beyond.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2021
The US celebrates Labor Day every year in early September, but this year its working class has little to celebrate once again. This article summarizes what US workers have experienced over the past year, from July 2020 through June 2021 in terms of jobs, wages, incomes and compares that to what owners of capital incomes have gained–i.e. stock market, corporations, billionaires, etc. It debunks several of the mainstream arguments that US workers reluctant to return to work are the cause of the latest faltering job numbers. It then summarizes what has happened with fiscal stimulus bills and programs, and documents the beginning of the withdrawal of many of the major measures of stimulus affecting households over the past years as well–i.e. creeping austerity. The piece concludes with a warning the current summer 2021 \’rebound\’ in the economy from reopening is showing signs of likely fading by 4th quarter once again, repeating the trajectory of second half 2020.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2021
Dr. Rasmus provides an analysis of the US departure from Afghanistan from the perspective of the costs of empire for America, which are rising and about to accelerate even faster due to new \’wars\’ looming on the horizon: 1. the next generation tech war with China; 2. the cybersecurity war with Russia and other players; 3. the war against Nature itself as US capitalists try to address climate change, global warming, and the growing destruction of the US environment, infrastructure, and society. The USA is currently \’behind the curve\’ in all the three wars of the 2020-2040. It will cost tens of trillions of dollars for US elites to fight these wars, and they cannot continue the cost of war in Afghanistan and elsewhere in the middle east any longer. Rasmus calculates that cost of middle east wars since 2001 amount to $10 trillion. Moreover, they\’ve been paid for not by taxes (as had all prior future wars in part) but totally by deficit financing and running up the national debt. Dr. Rasmus shares data on those deficits and debt, noting that since 2001 the US has actually cut taxes by $15 trillion while it spent $10 trillion on wars. War financing is also in crisis, as the US \’pivots\’ to new wars involving China, Russia & Nature over technology financing and mitigating the climate crisis.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2021
Comparing the consequences of the Covid precipitated great recession 2.0 in the USA, from the collapse of the \’long\’ 2nd quarter 2020 (March-June) during which US real GDP collapsed by -10.3%, to the April-June 2021 quarter one year later, Dr. Rasmus reveals how well stock markets, billionaires, bankers, and Fortune 500 US companies have fared compared to workers, small businesses, and renters. The role played by the central bank, the Federal Reserve, and the string of fiscal policy legislation enacted from March 2020 to the summer 2021 is examined. What\’s happened to America\’s \’Triple Crisis\’–economic, health & political–over the course of the 18 months?

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2021

Business media, Republican politicians and corporate PR departments are pushing the line to the public that the emerging inflation is due to excess DEMAND as result of household incomes boosted from fiscal spending programs of the Biden administration. The old \’too much money chasing too few goods\’ fiction of economic ideology. This article debunks that argument, showing how the nascent inflation is due to business SUPPLY problems, speculation in global commodities, the falling dollar (causing import prices to rise), global supply chain disruptions, and service sector businesses testing markets in order to recoup losses in 2020.
.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2021
US GDP estimates for 1st quarter GDP were published a week ago. To read the mainstream media, the US growth was a whopping 6.4%, suggesting the US economy is well on its way to a rapid recovery. But as the following article shows, the actual growth for the quarter over the preceding 4th quarter 2020 (when the US economy barely grew at all) was only 1.6%–well below the long run historical average. US GDP is over-estimated typically in a number of ways, discussed in the article. The current scenario as the US enters the summer 2021 is one of just a possible \’rebound\’ not a sustained recovery, similar to what happened in summer 2020. The differences between rebound and recovery are explained. Also discussed is the recent Biden administration fiscal stimulus. Why the actual spending in 2021 will be less than $1T, not the official media figure of $1.9T. It may not prove sufficient to generate a sustained recovery, especially should another wave of Covid impact the economy by year end.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2021
Recently US financial markets experienced turmoil as two groups of financial speculators battled over trying to \’corner the market\’ for a failing video game company called \’Gamestop\’ (as well as other similar zombie companies unable to pay their junk debts like the movie chain, AMC, and others). Big hedge funds were \’shorting\’ Gamestop\’s stock to drive in down and reap a capital gain. Opposed were an army of retail stock speculators using the social media platform, Reddit, the app \’WallStBets\’ to coordinate their joint action, and the no fee stock purchase company, RobinHood. The media has been spinning the speculator (day traders) vs. speculator (hedge funds) as a David vs. Goliath financial fight. But it\’s neither. Just a speculators driving stock bubble case as financial equity markets are driven higher by excess money injections by the Fed and super profits made by investors over the past year. Read my print analysis here. Listen to my hour radio show commentary as well on my show, Alternative Visions, on 1-29-21 at http://alternativevisions.podbean.com

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
A week ago new president Biden released his first proposal for a new economic stimulus bill, totaling $1.9 Trillion. This article describes the proposal in detail and argues why it will not pass due to Republican opposition. Why the total may be no more than half $1.9T, and why the US economy in 4th Quarter will show significant slowing and in 1st Quarter 2021 an actual contraction possibly. The half $1.9T will prove insufficient stimulus, and much of what is passed won\’t get into the economy until 2Q21. Why December 2020\’s $900B stimulus won\’t have much effect in 2021. Why political elites are betting Covid vaccine will mean full opening of US economy by summer and thus no need for stimulus

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2021
America\’s crisis of Democracy is about to take a turn to the negative even further. As Trump grows more desperate his reactions create an increasingly deeper constitutional and crisis of democracy. With 140 representatives and 12 senators in his camp, plus tens of millions of voters behind them, the initial plan on January 6 is to challenge the electoral college vote in Congress and attempt to overturn it. That date is also one where Trump will build his street forces and demonstrations on his behalf in Washington. It appears January 20 will be even more chaotic, as Trump refuses to physically leave the White House, this writer predicts. What\’s behind all the political crisis? Trump\’s preparation to continue the radicalization on his behalf after January 20. What are some of the scenarios? And what are the politics behind the 6th and 20th date events? Read

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2021
The two articles that follow constitute my analysis of the forthcoming so-called \’Covid Relief\’ bill passed by Congress and just approved by Trump. The first, written December 17, 2020, describes some of the elements of the bill amidst the growing deterioration of the US economy in the fourth quarter 2020 as the US economy slips toward a double dip recession, as in Europe and elsewhere, as the Covid pandemic deepens and impacts the US and global economy. 2. The second, written December 22, continues that economic analysis and concludes with predictions about the likely political maneuvers and scenarios to follow in January 2021

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
New wireless technology being trialed by the US Air Force will allow governments not only to track one\’s location via GPS (already able), but will permit \’jump off\’ from a cellphone tracked to nearby bluetooth and wireless devices in cars, household Internet of Things (IOT), and any wireless device with a MAC address. Some possible actual scenarios identified.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
The following is an extended article, \”Does the 21st Century\’s First Great Depression Lie Ahead?\’, which was written at mid-year 2020 as a contribution chapter for the recent book, \’When China Sneezes\’, edited by Cynthia McKinney, and published by Clarity Press, September 2020. It attempts to clarify how the current \’Great Recession 2.0\’ which commenced when the Covid 19 crisis impacted the economy in February 2020, compares to \’normal\’ recessions and \’great depressions\’, as well as to the great recession 1.0 that occurred 2007-09 and after. How to understand recessions, great recessions, and depressions. How the great depression of 1929-39 started as a great recession in 1929-30 and then transitioned to a great depression. How the great recession of 2008-09 was \’contained\’, only to set the conditions for another such event. And how the current great recession 2.0 of 2020 is still only in its initial phase and has yet to run its full course. What Lies Ahead? Some scenarios. (This is a lengthy 10k word essay)

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
Following the US national elections on November 3, 2020, Trump\’s US Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, informed Federal Reserve Bank chairman, Jerome Powell, he wanted $455 billion of the funds provided the central bank last March to provide loans to corporations and markets to be returned to the US Treasury. The \’claw back\’ of the unspent monetary stimulus funds from the March Cares Act created a so-called public \’rift\’ between the Treasury and Fed. Mnuchin demanded the return of the funds, but Powell balked at the request in a rare disagreement between the two key capitalist monetary institutions in the US. What\’s behind the Mnuchin move, why did Powell quickly capitulate to the request, and what does it signify for politics and policy in 2021 and for the US economy already fading in the 4th quarter 2020?

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
As Trump\’s legal challenges to get mail in ballots thrown out and elections in key swing states to show a majority of voters for him, continues to fail, Trump and his supporters are clearly moving to a new phase to overturn the recent presidential election. The new phase focuses around getting state legislature appointed \’electors\’ to the US electoral college to change the votes they are about to cast on Dec. 14 for Trump, instead of the popular vote for Biden. The US election process is being revealed for its anti-democratic institutional biases. The American public little understands the electoral college process–designed to thwart the popular will and vote for the president if powerful elites disagree with that popular vote. But even the electoral college itself is not the \’last word\’. What is happening in the \’new phase\’ is the revelation that even the electoral college process can be perverted. Whether Trump succeeds–as growing capitalist opposition rises–remains to be seen. The period between December 14 and December 23 will be determinative.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
Now that the 2020 US Election results are mostly concluded, media talking heads and countless Biden supporters raise the question of how could 70 million Americans have voted for Trump despite all his actions, statements, and public declarations during the past four years. His failed management of the Covid health crisis, his incarceration and separation of thousands of young kids of immigrants, the rampant income inequality, the trillions of dollars in tax cuts given to rich investors and corporations, his gutting of environmental and other regulations, failure to provide an alternative national health program, and, not least, his increasing attacks on the norms and institutions of what\’s left of American Democracy. The perplexed who raise the question don\’t understand the fundamental basis of Trump\’s support. Trumpism doesn\’t end with Trump who, regardless of what happens by next January 2021. Trump nor his supporters are \’going away\’. And if Biden repeats the errors of Obama\’s administration with similar programs and policies to check the deepening recession and Covid health crisis in America, Trump and his 70 million will return soon, rather than later. In 2024 or even 2022 midterm elections. The following article addresses the question of why the 70 million supported him in the recent election and will not soon disappear.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
A recap of the events of the 24 hours following the November 3, 2020 US elections. Why when the polls closed late November 3, the status of the election was almost an electoral college tie between Trump and Biden, as this writer predicted last week, at 244 to 248. Trump\’s initial TV appearance and declaration, as predicted, the evening of November 3 declaring himself the \’winner\’ prematurely. Why Biden should nevertheless win the \’swing states\’ of Michigan, Wisconsin, and likely Nevada and Arizona as well. Why the election could be very close in terms of electoral college votes. But why a close election will mean less likely sufficient, if any, fiscal stimulus in 2020. Why Trump is not going away, even if he should lose, and why progressives in the Democrat party will be the big losers as that party\’s corporate wing asserts a minimalist economic program in 2021 given the close election. The broader global implications of the US election, including the continuing decline of the American global economic empire.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
As the election on November 3 draws near, it is becoming increasingly obvious that Trump plans to stop the count of mail in ballots in any manner possible as a strategy to remain in office. He\’ll declare himself winner on November 3 or 4 based on direct in person vote tallies and an early lead in the Electoral College. His hundreds of lawyers now in place in swing states will seek injunctions to stop the count. Injunctions will quickly go up the court chain of appeals until the Supreme Court which, now with a 6-3 majority in Trump\’s favor, will stop the counting. Chaos in the streets may result, which suits Trump\’s plans as well: more chaos, the more the Supreme Court will intervene. This article looks at the status of both candidates in the electoral college voting in the states one week before the election. What reveals is that Trump & Biden are in a virtual tie in terms of states support in the electoral college, 248 to 244. Only 3 or 4 key swing states remain up for grabs. Trump is targeting them to prevent the counting of mail in ballots that strongly favor Biden. A critique of the Electoral College and Supreme Court follows, with suggestions for basic restructuring of both. A coup d\’etat may be in the works should the voting remain close on November 3.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
With the confirmation of Trump\’s 3rd nominee for the US Supreme Court Trump is now in position to implement his plan to stop the count of mail in ballots on November 3, targeting several swing states, create as much chaos in the aftermath, and then call on his 6-3 majority in the Supreme Court to legitimize it all. It\’s a rerun of the 2000 presidential election when George W. Bush was \’selected\’ by the Supreme Court when it halted the vote recount in Florida. This time it\’s \’many Floridas\’. The anti-Democracy character and role of the Electoral College in US elections is discussed. As well the similar role played by the Supreme Court, which was never given any such authority in the US Constitution of 1789 but usurped it in 1803. The US political \’powderkeg\’ is about to explode on and after November 3.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
With negotiations on a fiscal stimulus package between the Democrats in Congress, the Trump administration, and the Republican Senate\’s leader, McConnell, appearing to approach an \’endgame\’, the following article summarizes the history of stimulus bill negotiations since July. Evidence shows Trump and Republican Senate refusing to consider a deal, apart from maneuvering; Trump breaking off negotiations twice; and McConnell in the Senate progressively reducing his counter-offers. In the past week, however, as Trump\’s chances of winning Nov. 3 weaken, Trump has shifted and is willing to agree with Democrat leaders\’ Pelosi and Shumer, leaving the Republican Senate as the obstacle to a final deal. The article describes the positions of the parties over the past four months and how and why they\’ve changed. What happens to the US economy if \’no deal\’ is reached?

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
The latest events and developments in the continuing negotiations on a fiscal stimulus package between Trump and the Democrats is summarized, including origins in events of last August 2020 when Trump abruptly broke off negotiations after tricking Pelosi-Shumer to make a major offer. Trump\’s tactical 4 Executive Orders of August are reviewed, as well as events leading up to a second Trump scuttling of negotiations on October 5. A post-October 5 update on the very latest developments are added as an Addendum to the this article.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
While \’talking heads\’ in the media focus on the form of the 1st debate–which was dominated by Trump constantly talking over and interrupting his opponent, Joe Biden–far more interesting was the content of the debate; or precisely the lack thereof. The following analysis of the 1st debate emphasizes the lack of any clear program and proposals by either candidate for president of the USA to deal with the intensifying \’triple crisis\’ facing the USA today: the health crisis as a 2nd wave of Covid 19 is predicted for this winter; the economic crisis as more than 30 remain unemployed and the US economy \’rebound\’ shows signs of slowing in key areas; and the race relations crisis as almost daily new revelations appear. Dr. Rasmus argues there is a yet a fourth crisis maturing fast: a political crisis of dimensions not seen in the USA since the 1860s–both in the institutions and increasingly in the streets. The most likely scenario how Trump may plan to try to stay in office, with the help of his 6-3 Supreme Court majority, is discussed in closing

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
Two articles written this past mid-September 2020 on the growing evidence–and statements by Trump himself–that he will not accept the results of the November 3, 2020 US presidential elections should he lose. What then is Trump\’s \’Plan B\’ should he lose? The possible and most likely scenario by Trump is outlined in the article, \’A Most Dire Warning\’. Just a few days before, an earlier short commentary article on Judge Ginsburg\’s death and Trump\’s rush to nominate and get confirmed his third ultra-conservative candidate to the US Supreme Court. That article is entitled, \’Ginsburg\’s Death & Trump\’s Emerging Legal Coup D\’Etat\’.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
USA media and politicians consistently report that the unemployment situation in the US economy is rapidly improving. They cite the latest unemployment rate statistic of 8.4%. But even other government reports show unemployment rate of 14.2% and 18.4%. The differences represent a gap of 16 million more jobless. The gap is even greater when workers who failed to obtain unemployment benefits but who are nonethless jobless are considered as unemployed. So which is correct? This article debunks the oft-cited media numbers of unemployed–numbers promoted by politicians, business, the two political parties, and even progressives. It shows how there are at least 40 million still jobless in the US as of labor day 2020, and an unemployment rate of 25%. The article concludes with a discussion of a second permanent wave of layoffs coming soon that could raise the number beyond 25% and 40 million.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
In less than 24 hrs after Trump scuttled negotiations with Democrats over the pending fiscal stimulus bill, he immediately issued 4 executive orders bypassing Congress. The EOs were obviously prepared well before Trump broke off negotiations with Democrat leaders Pelosi and Shumer. The EOs were more PR events and provide very little in the way of fiscal stimulus, raising the problem of failed government response to an obviously faltering economic rebound of June-July. The 4 EOs covered a $300/wk jobless benefit, a Constitutionally illegal payroll tax deferral for workers (business already got its deferral in March), a further 3 mo. suspension of student loan payments, and a Trump request that states \’consider\’ extending the rent evictions moratorium. The article discusses the broader political strategy behind Trump\’s tactical move to follow up the breaking off of negotiations with 4 EOs, including plans to not accept the Nov. 3 election outcomes should he lose.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
On friday, August 7, Trump broke off negotiations with Democrats in Congress on the next economic stimulus package. What were his motives, given that more than 20 million US unemployed workers will lose $85 billion a month in benefits just as signs of the US economic rebound fading are beginning to appear? What is Trump\’s bargaining strategy and the political maneuvers behind it. What\’s likely now to happen with consumer spending, millions of growing rent evictions, and growing \’blue\’ state and local governments\’ fiscal crisis and pending mass layoffs. How does Trump\’s move confirm his plan to provoke a Constitutional Crisis before the November 3, US elections?

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
As Democrats and Republicans debate in Congress in early August about the scope, magnitude and details of an economic stimulus package and bill, the US economy\’s \’rebound\’ in May-June has begun showing signs, as of mid-July, of fading out. Unemployment claims are rising again as 30 states begin to partially shut down services once more, in response to the rising Covid 19 cases and death rates; Manufacturing continiues to register a slow recovery but with layoffs continuing through July; Construction activity, normally peaking in early summer, is still contracting, albeit more slowly. States and local governments have not increased spending to offset the deep fall in the private sector in April-June, 32.9% on an annual average and 10% for just the quarter–more than the pace in the worst quarter in the great depression of the 1930s! The following article notes early signs of slowing rebound in July. The relapse is \’normal\’ for a great recession, and the current event is contrasted with prior great recessions in the US in the 20th century.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
On July 6, 2020 I posted my extended view and analysis why the 3rd quarter US GDP would falter–and lead to a W-shape recovery, as is typical of all Great Recessions. The current recession’s scenario was compared with 1929-30 and 2008-09, and 8 reasons were given why the US current economic rebound (not recovery) would falter. In this follow-on post a somewhat longer term scenario is added to the prior shorter, 3rd quarter view. It’s an addendum and sequel to the prior post, focusing on the more permanent impacts on the economy that will continue well into 2021 and beyond. Here’s the addendum piece, “What Lies Ahead”

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
As the US economy reopened widely in June, an inevitable \’rebound\’ of GDP will follow. The article explains, however, that rebound is not the same as recovery. The current economic crisis qualifies as a second Great Recession. And like all Great Recessions will follow a \’W Shape\’, protracted weak recovery of modest \’rebounds\’ followed by short and shallow economic relapses of little or no growth, and even subsequent double (or even triple) dip recessions. The current contraction is compared to 2008-09 and the early years of the Great Depression of the 1930s as well. The article then reviews 8 specific reasons why Phase One (March-June) of the current Great Recession will fail to achieve sustained economic recovery in Phase Two just emerging, but rather fall into a typical W Shape recovery trajectory.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
In the last couple weeks evidence is growing of a second Covid-19 wave of infections in the USA, concentrated in the Southern and Southwestern states. Some say it\’s an expansion of the 1st wave. Whichever, 1st or 2nd, it represents a potential new danger to the US economy within the next few months, perhaps weeks. The article reviews the causes of the growing 2nd wave, and assesses the failure of the Trump regime to prevent it; in fact promoting it indirectly by administration policies or lack thereof. The idea that the US recession precipitated by the virus is being driven now by fundamental and independent factors, combined with the virus as a precipitating factor. The current 2020 US recession is compared with the 2008-09 prior event. Why the US capitalist policy response amounts to a pre-bail out of the system and a continuation of a decades long massive subsidization of capital incomes by both monetary and fiscal policies. The article concludes with the theme that should a financial crisis eventual follow in the wake of growing defaults, bankruptcies, and deflating prices, then the current crisis will likely morph into a bona fide economic depression.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
The following article comments on the recent police killing of George Floyd and some of the institutional elements of racism in America in the relationships between local police and local government institutions such as DA offices, coroners, and grand juries. The article proposes a list of measures to address and change political relations to begin to end institutional racism. It also comments on the mass protests and demonstrations erupting around the USA, and globally, and how they represent a deeper discontent and mobilization, especially as it applies to young generations of millennials and GenZers who have been impacted negatively by economic conditions in the USA in recent decades far more severely than older generations. How the demonstrations reflect the coming together of demands of race and class, in the younger generations.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
The US media and politicians, and even so-called progressive economists, keep touting the figure of 14.7% unemployment rate in the US by May 1, 2020. Yet 36.5m receiving unemployment benefits by end of April indicate a jobless rate of 22.4%. What\’s up? Why the official U-3 unemployment rate low-balls the actual jobless (more than even 36.5m since many workers haven\’t been successful in getting unemployment benefits despite having filed). The following article debunks the official 14.7% peddled by the media and politicians. Here\’s the various reasons why it is much higher and what\’s wrong with the official U-3 stat. (As of mid-May the total jobless now around 45 m and a 28% jobless rate).

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
The administration, its wing of the US media, and even liberal economists in mid-April bought into the fiction that the US economy will experience a \’V-Shape\’ economic recovery: the deep and rapid contraction of the US real economy in the 2nd quarter of 2020 (some forecasts to collapse from 30%-40% in GDP terms) will be followed by an equally rapid recovery. The US economy will return to a normal trajectory pre-virus sometime in the second half of 2020. This writer has rejected this scenario since February, predicting the US economy recovery will not prove \’V-Shape\’ but, at best, a \’W-shape\’, as in 2008-2016, as is typical of \’great recessions\’ with deep and rapid contractions. A relapse of the US economy is highly likely sometime later int he 4th quarter 2020 or early 2021. The current real contraction is even worse than 2008-09. Real economic forces are unleashed such that, even if the virus\’ economic effects are somehow abated in the 2nd half (very unlikely with a second wave infections coming), the real economic conditions set in motion will independently drive the economy into a long term stagnation. And should the financial system not contain forthcoming defaults and deflation, it will mean a subsequent financial system crisis that will exacerbate the real contraction and possible precipitate a bona fide great depression. (A subsequent article will describe why a \’W Shape\’ recovery is likely)

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
The following article was written for the \’Exploring Economics\’ group in Europe and is now available on its website. With an introduction written April 11, the article combines several of my initial analyses of the early origins and evolution of the Coronavirus impact on the US economy. The themes include a focus on the critical longer term effect of collapsing financial asset markets on the real economy, a process now working its way through the global economy albeit still at early stages. (This theme was first offered in my 2010 book, \’Epic Recession: Prelude to Global Depression\’ and then further developed in my 2016 book, \’Systemic Fragility in the Global Economy\’). Other themes in the following article were stated in several shorter articles written for my blog, jackrasmus.com since early March. The initial article \’within the article\’ posted here included my predictions, made in September 2018, of a severe economic crisis forthcoming by 2019-20, although evolving more slowly in absence of the virus effect. The 4th and last \’article within the article\’ is my most recent written piece, \’Why a V-Shape Recovery Will Not Happen\’.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
As the contraction of the US economy accelerated through the last two weeks of March, the Trump administration appeared increasingly in disarray with solutions. Trump\’s daily press conferences updating government efforts to deal with the health crisis and to explain why the emergency Acts and programs to aid businesses and households alike were floundering as well. Trump often brought in CEOs of major companies to explain what the \’private sector\’ was doing to address the crisis. Lots of words, as little action took place. A big commercial real estate speculator himself, Trump pumped up markets as solutions to the crisis, both health and economic. This article criticizes how the \’markets\’ were doing, as well as explains how \’markets\’ over the past decades are responsible for much of the deep problems in health care system functionality as well as the US economy\’s problems

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
As the economic contraction in the US accelerated rapidly by mid-March 2020, it became clear that the current, emerging recession would not be a \’normal\’ one, but would almost certainly share more characteristics with the 2008-09 so-called \’great recession\’. The evidence of something more serious underway prompted the US Congress to quickly pass a $2.2T emergency spending bill, full of mostly loans, grants and tax cuts for businesses large and small, and with $500B for income maintenance to households. This write argued, however, it would be too little and poorly composed, favoring business subsidization rather than households. This article provides an early, mid-March 2020 look at the US economy as it was about to slide into a much deeper still, and faster, contraction in the second half of March, during which at minimum 10 million workers would lose their jobs.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
Read my latest, just published piece summarizing and analyzing the US Senate\’s just passed Bill (to be approved by US. House on Friday) to provide stimulus to a fast contracting US economy. The elements of the $2T bill: $1,027B for business & $500B for households + misc. for local governments, hospitals, farms, etc. With a third of US economy shutdown and unemployment now rising 3m per week, why the $2T (which includes a \’multiplier\’ effect) is insufficient. Why a new stimulus bill is necessary, and $4T in spending required (my proposal). See my prior Phase 1 initial proposals (\’Their Stimulus vs. Mine\’) this blog.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
As talk began to rise in around mid-March Washington about the likely need of a major fiscal stimulus, the central bank, the Federal Reserve pumped $1.5 Trillion in one month and two month liquidity into the Repo markets and another $700 billion in new \’QE\’ bond purchases. Stock markets swung back and forth in 2,000 pts a day drops and recoveries. To confront the virus, workers were sent home and businesses began to shut down large scale in the US. In this 4th in the series on the virus contagion effect on the economy, the 4 channels by which the health crisis was driving the economic and financial crises are described (supply chain, consumer demand, financial asset deflation, and the rising prospect of defaults in corporate bonds and leverage loans and spreading currency foreign exchange collapse. Trump raised his fiscal stimulus response and Democrats raised theirs. $700-$800 billion stimulus was talked about, to offset the collapsing income and consumption and business spending. This writer argued the amount was not nearly enough and was not targeted to those who needed it most. My own fiscal spending program, phase one, is offered in a series of measures targeted to restore income loss by those workers forced to leave work due to illness, company layoffs, or just to care for K-8 children sent home due to school shutdowns. How to Pay for these proposals of initial fiscal stimulus is offered as an \’Addendum\’ to the 10 proposals.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
A few days later, circa March 11, the economic impacts on the US economy–both financial and real–began to become more clear. Financial markets–especially stock markets and oil futures markets–were plummeting. Trump was forced to address some action by the US government. In a TV address to the nation he outlined 3 tepid proposals aimed at business, and offered working and middle class families \”relief soon\”, as he put it, but without details. The financial markets crashed again. Yields on bonds, corporate and govt, fell in tandem, oil fell to the low $30s per barrel. Talk of default and the financial asset deflation provoking a credit crisis grew. Companies accelerated their \’dash for cash\’ and cash hoarding. A Fed rate cut of 0.5% was met by the markets imploding. Talk of fiscal stimulus returned to the US after a 10 yr. hiatus. This article, 3rd in the series, critiques Trump\’s speech and how politicians were way \’behind the curve\’ in their response. It reveals how and why US monetary and fiscal policies since 2008-09 have deteriorated as stabilization measures, as a result of the use of the policies to subsidize capital incomes during the last decade.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
The following is the first of several published articles written in the past two weeks on the economic effects of the Coronavirus on the US and global economy. Here the theme is on how the economic effect will prove very severe on working class households. At this point, March 8, early in the evolution of the economic contagion, US policy makers, in particular Trump, downplay the effects and even deny it. Within two weeks they\’ll be calling for emergency measures to pre-emptively bail out the banks to prevent a 2008-like crash and even for income replacement for workers suffering escalating job and wage loss (articles to follow)

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
The US and global economies this week began to experience a synchronized financial asset market and real economic contraction not seen since 2008. Financial asset market prices tumbled, first with equities prices, then forex, then oil and commodity futures. By week\’s end fears of impact on credit markets (especially junk bonds, repos, and even US Treasuries) entered the public discussion. At the same time supply chain disruption of production and spreading demand shocks increasingly impacted the real economy. The US and world entered recession most likely in March, as stock markets unwound in less than 30 days the gains of the past 3 years. The following article, written at the beginning of the week on March 9 predicted the trajectory, and reasons therefore, for the rest of the week. (A following update will be provided for the week beginning, March 16)

by Dr. Jack Rasmus

Listen to my hour long radio show presentation on the global coronavirus and the economic contagion channels for its spread from China to the rest of the world economy.

GO TO: http://alternativevisions.podbean.com

SHOW ANNOUNCEMENT:

Alternative Visions – Global Economic Contagion Channels: From China to Rest of World

Feb 21st, 2020 by progressiveradionetwork

Dr. Rasmus provides an update on latest developments of past week on the Coronavirus and its growing impact on China’s economy, and the contagion channels to the rest of the global economy. Media and business ‘consensus’ that effect and recovery will be ‘V-shape’ in China is now collapsing. Ditto that the economic effects will be largely contained to China itself. Multiple sources of evidence emerging the virus is spreading faster, and outside China now. Five channels of economic contagion are discussed: trade/supply chain channel; currency channel; commodities and commodity futures channel, financial asset market channel, consumption channel (tourism & luxury goods). Why Japan (and So. Korea) economy is most fragile and susceptible to China contagion. Other Asian economies at risK: Honk Kong, Singapore, Thailand, Australia. (Why no reporting coming from Taiwan?). Goldman Sachs, IMF, S&P forecasts. Review of Japan’s current recession underway and deepening due to sales tax hike, Trump trade war, China-Japan supply chain & tourism impacts. Why monetary and fiscal stimulus won’t work. The show concludes with brief analysis of the recent Democrat party candidates debate and why the ‘traditional middle’ of the party is collapsing in favor of Sanders & Bloomberg.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2019
In my January 2020 book, \’The Scourge of Neoliberalism: US Economic Policy from Reagan to Trump\’ (see book icon this page and review page), I write of the material origins of Neoliberalism as the latest phase in the capitalists restructuring of the US economy, critiquing most accounts of it to date as too focused on ideas (and ideological) and insufficient of consideration of material forces such as technological change, financialization & globalization of capitalist markets, change in nature of money, and requirements of US expansion and retention of its global economic empire. In the two articles that follow, much of the book\’s main themes are summarized and explained. (A third article explaining how Neoliberalism has been restructuring the US political system will follow). The themes of the book, and the summary articles that follow, address: How US neoliberalism has evolved since the late 1970s decade, how its evolution lost momentum in the 2008-09 crash, why Obama\’s regime failed to restore it, why Trump policies represent a new more aggresive, virulent form of Neoliberal policy regime, and why Trump\’s restoration will fail.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020
This past Tuesday Trump gave his State of the Union Speech, on the eve of the US Senate vote on his impeachment. It was a very un-traditional speech, mostly feeding \’red meat\’ t0 his political base with what they wanted to hear and saying little of where he saw the country going. In typical Trump fashion, it was full of melodrama and \’reality show\’ appeals to the gallery watchers. Often repeated lies about the economy and foreign policy were heard. Notably, how Trump planned to split off the black vote from the Democrats was also evident. But most notable was the symbolic rejection of House Speaker, Pelosi\’s, extended handshake, followed by Pelosi\’s tearing up his written speech at the end of the presentation on national TV. The personal conflict portends what will be an increasingly nasty US 2020 election campaign for the remainder of the year. The political crisis in the US will now deepen.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2020

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
While both the US and Iran appear to \’stand down\’ in the recent escalation toward War, in the election year 2020 for Trump more US provocations of Iran will continue. Trump\’s strategy is to try to provoke Iran to more aggressive military or proxy action, in order to enable and justify Trump further escalation. It\’s all about the US election. If Trump provocations result in Iran like response, Trump wins support from his political base in the US election by looking tough; if Iran does not \’take the bait\’ and escalate in kind, Trump again wins with his base by showing US aggressive action results in Iran \’standing down\’. The closer to the US november 2020 election, the more likely the US provocations, especially if Iran refuses to negotiate which it will not before the election.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
The following are 2 recently published articles explaining how and why Trump has decided to try to provoke a war with Iran in the election year in the US and as a distraction from impeachment and his pending impeachment trial in the US Senate. In the first article, \’Trump\’s Deja Vu US Wartime Playbook\’, it is shown that Trump\’s strategy is an old US playbook to go to war: by a provocation based on a lie, followed by a US demand the target country cannot accept; the second article compares the role of a reckless, high risk taking, unstable personality that is often associated with the precipitation of war. Here Trump is in 20th century company of Germany\’s Kaiser, Japan\’s Tojo, Hitler, So. Korea\’s Syngman Ree, and US president Johnson.

A REVIEW by David Baker
December 2019 + Preliminary Commentary by Jack Rasmus, January 1, 2020
As Trump\’s regime enters the last year of his first term, and economic and political conditions in America, show signs of intensifying, Dr. Jack Rasmus\’s latest book provides a deep historical background to the emerging crises in the USA, and their confluence. A more \’materialist\’ analysis of the origins of Neoliberalism in the late 1970s, the evolution of its American variant through four decades, and the now growing contradictions in the Neoliberal policy regime are addressed in the book. Emphasis of analysis is on the current Trump form of Neoliberalism–a more virulent 2.0 form of Neoliberalism, its achievements and failures to date, and why Trump\’s Neoliberal restoration will fail. Concluding chapters focus on those material forces as well as the growing incompatibility between them and the US political-democratic system. David Baker\’s review of the book addresses several of the book\’s major themes

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2019
Why did British Labour lose so badly in last week\’s UK election? How much a role did respective strategies and tactics of the various parties play in the electoral outcome? How much did rising Nationalist appeals (English, Scottish)? Why are Social Democracy parties in a general decline–in the UK, Europe, and the \’weak variant\’ in the USA, the Democrats? Read my analysis of the short term and longer term trends behind the election.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2019
With impeachment of Trump hearings underway in the US House of Representatives, and a likely vote next week, attention has been focused on Trump\’s attacks on democratic norms and practices since his election. A constitutional crisis is brewing in the US, reflected in part only in the US House of Representatives\’ impeachment hearings. What\’s the broader picture of Trump\’s chipping away at democracy in the US, a process now bumping up against Constitutional guarantees and the Bill of Rights itself. Is Trump just an aberration in that sense or representative of a longer term and broader decline of democratic institutions in the US political system? And what\’s the relationship of that decline to the crisis of Neoliberalism post-2008 as well?

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2019
Europe\’s job growth since 2008 has been overwhelmingly contingent-precarious (e.g. part time, temp, contract) work. Employment gains and rising minimum wages still leave rising economic and political dissatisfaction by European workers, according to recent surveys. But worse is coming in new business models that intensify precarious-contingent work and Artificial Intelligence that will devastate labor markets even more than has contingent employment. Meanwhile attempts to put a positive spin on it all with claims of a sharing economy and a \’new capitalism\’ increasingly abound. Why Europe–the sick man economy of global capitalism–is about to get much sicker.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2019
This past week Trump announced a \’mini\’ trade deal with China. What\’s in it and what\’s not. Trump decides to take China offers on the table for the past year–China purchase of more US farm goods and allow US businesses 51% ownership in China operations. US foregoes its long standing demand China slow its nextgen technology development (5G, Cybersecurity, AI). Slowing US economy and rising complaints from US farm sector and manufacturers behind the Trump decision to \’take the money and run\’. Not yet a written agreement, Phase 1 agreed to last week will take 5 more weeks to sign off. Phase 2 will produce little to nothing more, as the US 2020 election approaches. After 15 months of trade war with China, US trade deficit at record levels globally at $55b/mo. Trump trade wars a failure. Read my predictions of what comes next.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2019
The following is the first a several part interview given in spring 2019, summarizing my views on the state of Europe\’s economy, why it\’s policies have failed to generate a solid recovery, why it will soon slip into recession, and why even more challenges are on the horizon with next generation technologies, and changes in product and labor markets. Here in Part 1 the discussion addresses UK, Italy, France, ECB and devaluation. (In Part 2 of the interview to follow, the discussion focuses on the coming impact of Artificial Intelligence and the so-called \’sharing\’ economy (Uberization) on jobs and working class incomes).

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright September 2019
The following are three recently published articles on the actual state of wages, jobs, and the measurement of the US economy. Referencing alternative surveys and studies from banks and other legitimate independent research sources, the articles show that wages are not rising at the rate declared by the Trump administration, job growth was grossly over-estimated in 2018 and is now being revised down by 500,000, unemployment is actually more than 10% (not the official 3.7%), and US GDP is over-stated in several important ways.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2019
Trump brags about the \’wall of money\’ now flowing into the US from offshore. He thinks that\’s great and a positive. But it represents a growing decline of the global economy and approaching global recession, that has begun to spill over to the US economy now as well. What are the many consequences of the \’wall of money\’ flowing to the US?

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2019
Financial asset markets collapsed this weekend in Argentina on the results of the primary presidential election which showed current president, Macri, about to lose the October general election by wide margins. Stock markets fell 38%, the peso 20%, and warnings of yet another Debt default began to spread among global investors. Read my latest analysis on Argentina as a canary in the global financial coalmine, and the connections between it and global financial asset deflation now underway.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2019
The recently passed G20 meeting in Osaka, Japan witnessed the return to \’happy talk\’ by Trump, promising the US and China would again get together and continue negotiating on trade. The Osaka G20 sounds almost a repeat of the December 2018 G20 in Buenos Aires. Trump promises a return to negotiations. The actual result, however, was a blow up of US-China negotiations this past May 2019. Will the \’post-Osaka\’ results also be the same as the post-Buenos Aires? Both negotiating teams reportedly will meet again. But it appears China won\’t play the same game. Read my analysis of events around China-US negotiations over the past year, from mid-2018 to the present. Why there\’ll be no agreement in 2019, and only possibly in 2020.

Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2019
Recent news of Deutsche Bank\’s major restructuring raises the prospect of whether, should it fail, what might be the contagion effects, given its current $45 trillion in derivatives contracts. Raising the specter is the rapidly deteriorating condition of Euro banks in general, not just in Italy but area wide, and given the trillions of Euros in non-performing bank loans and 65% of all Euro sovereign bonds now trading in negative territory and more to come as the ECB plans to boost stimulus again. Read my exchange with a reader and my assessment of Deutsche and the banks. + My follow up second exchange with another reader on why China debt is not as dangerous to global economic instability as is Europe\’s.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2019
How has global capitalism changed since the 1970s. What are the origins of financial and economic crises like that which occurred in 2008-10 in the US, and the long term stagnation of economies like Europe and Japan in the aftermath? What are the major contradictions faced by capitalism int he 21st century, generated by the major structural changes in financial and labor markets. Why is traditional fiscal-monetary policy failing? What\’s financial imperialism? What must be done to resurrect unions and progressive parties in the face of the global rightward drift?

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2019
What\’s behind the Fed and other central banks in their growing rush to cut interest rates, and why central bank rate cutting will prove ineffective as global economies contract again? Listen to my 2-part hour long interview update on my 2017 book, \’Central Bankers at the End of Their Ropes\’

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2019
This week special counsel, Robert Mueller, held a press conference and clarified for the record his Report on Trump collusion with Russia and Trump obstruction of the Mueller investigation. The following article focuses on the three most important \’takeaways\’ from Mueller\’s presentation to the press and his 448 page report. Contrary to Trump\’s \’spin\’ on the Mueller Report, declaring it absolved him of all charges of collusion and obstruction, the Report and Mueller clearly state there was lack of evidence re. collusion. Trump may have colluded but evidence was withheld by the Trump administration to prove it. In contrast, Trump was found to have obstructed the investigation many times, which is a felony and crime. So why did Mueller not indict Trump of criminal activity while in office? Read and find out. And find out why Trump satisfies the classic definition of a tyrant.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2019
The US-China trade negotiations broke down this past week. Trump claims China tried to change the agreement. Read why it was the US that changed the agreement and how, the week before the China negotiators were due in Washington for what was to be the conclusion of an agreement. How the neocons behind Trump want a China capitulation on technology, or will scuttle any deal.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2019
The 3 articles combined and posted here provide commentaries on recent US government statistics for 1st Quarter 2019 US Gross Domestic Product and US April 2019 employment numbers. Problems and contradictions in the stats are pointed out. How US GDP was driven by excess business inventory buildup and net exports (in turn due to big drop in imports). Both inventory and net exports are likely caused by US-China trade war, and thus temporary. Real forces behind US GDP–business and consumer–spending are shown to be very weak. US job numbers are critiqued in articles 2 & 3, noting contradictions that show weak growth in one survey despite, in the second report, hyped job creation of 263,000 jobs last month. Other problems with US job numbers are noted as well.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2019
US GDP for 1st Qtr. 2019 came in at 3.2%, a surprising difference from the 1.1%-1.5% forecasted by research depts. of several major US banks and other independent sources. Why the large gap? The following article dissects the major components of US GDP to show the gap is due totally to a temporary surge in business inventories and net exports–both the consequence of Trump\’s trade wars–plus US defense spending escalation. The big elements of business structures & equipment investment and household consumption, in contrast, continued weak and point to further slowing. Conclusion: the US GDP does not indicate strength but long term trends of slowing consumer spending and business domestic investment (and decline in government social program spending).

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2019
The following article is a sequel to the just published \’Trump v. Powell: How Independent Really is the Fed\”. In March 2019 Powell confirms the Fed\’s January \’pause\’ on Fed rate hikes is really a \’no more hikes\’ in 2019 and almost certainly as well in 2020 election year. Powell signals as well no more \’QT\’ (sell off of Fed balance sheet debt). Trump continues his attack, appointing Steven Moore (who advocated firing Powell in December). Pressure now mounting for Fed rate cuts by year end 2019 or sooner, as US economy clearly slowing and Trump re-election campaign gearing up. How central bank monetary policy is now clearly in service of financial asset markets, and subsidizing capital incomes. So much for myths of central bank independence, Fed\’s real economy mission of 2% inflation and employment, and monetary policy as real economy stabilization tool.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2019
A common theme among economists is that the central bank, the Fed, is independent of government or private banking interests pressures. The Fed makes its decisions based on its own based on expert analysis and decision making. Nor does the Fed decide based on conditions in financial markets. Its mandate is the real economy, inflation and employment levels. Recent events in the US conclusively reveal these are just myths about the Fed (and other central banks). Clearly since December 2018 the Fed has changed 180 degrees in policy, in response to both president and private banking pressures to halt rate hikes to stop financial markets severe contractions. At the time, there was no data or indicators suggesting the real economy was fragile–in contrast to financial markets that were plummeting.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2019
After years of using financial means to undermine the Venezuelan economy, with success, the US president and Neocons running his foreign policy now (Bolton, Abrams, Pompeio, Lighthizer, etc.) have \’crossed the Rubicon\’ and decided to escalate pressure until the Maduro regime breaks and is replaced by the US \’selected\’ president replacement, Juan Guido. War is imminent in Venezuela in 2019. The article here examines the ways in which the US uses financial measures to crush states and economies that attempt to break out of the US economic empire and go more independent. The various financial measures are described, focusing on destroying the country\’s currency by preventing it access to dollars with which to pay global debts and buy critical import goods necessary for its economy and society to function. The US global economic empire\’s primary financial tool of control is its currency, the dollar, that functions as the global trading and reserves currency. How the US uses it to destabilize governments is explained.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright Jack Rasmus & Other Voices Video

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2019
Indications of the global economy slowing are becoming so numerous that banks, business, big capitalists and the media have been joining in raising red flags of a likely global recession coming. In this article, note is made of some of the more well-known representatives of global capital now raising those red flags: Ray Dalio, Paul Tudor, Jones, Seth Klarman, Christine Lagarde of the IMF, chairs of US and other central banks, and research departments at a growing list of big banks in Asia, Europe and the US. Their objective is to raise the warning on the eve of the World Economic Forum meeting being held at Davos, Switzerland this week. Their warnings will likely fall on deaf ears, however, as the world\’s capitalist elite gathers to play and prepare, they hope, for another banner year of returns to their incomes.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2019
Throughout the 2018 evolution of US-China trade negotiations, as both countries drifted toward a bona fide trade war, the major issue has always been nextgeneration technology and how might US policy slow China\’s drive toward new industries (and military capabilities) based on Artificial Intelligence, cybersecurity, and 5G wireless. This part 2 of the analysis of Trump trade policy focuses on this issue since March 2018, through hundreds of billions of dollars in mutual tariffs, the US midterm elections, the G20 meeting of Trump and Xi in Buenos Aires last November, and China concessions and negotiations underway during January 2019. Predictions of the likely outcomes and forces and factions driving US-China trade negotiations conclude the following piece.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2019
The past three days US and China negotiators have met in Beijing to try one last time before a true trade war erupts between them in March 2019. Higher level trade negotiators will follow up in Washington in coming weeks. This writer was asked to write a comprehensive article on the Trump trade ‘war’ in general, and specifically in relation to China. That article is appearing in the latest edition of the World Review of Political Economy, published and edited in Beijing. It’s entitled ‘Trump’s Deja Vu China Trade War’. What follows is the first part of that article, which addresses events from the initiation of Trump’s trade offensives in March 2018. Part 2 will be posted as well subsequently. Both parts trace US trade policy evolution under Trump in 2018, compared with similar US trade offensives under Nixon in the 1970s targeting Europe and Reagan in the 1980s targeting Japan. The historical parallels are interesting, and situate US trade policy as an important element in the evolution of US Neoliberalism.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2018
Trump-Xi met at the G20 meeting in Buenos Aires December 1, 2018 in what was described as a threshold meeting that would determine the future direction of the US-China trade dispute that had been escalating since March 2018. The press has characterized the \’agreement\’ reached between Trump-Xi as a \’truce\’ in the emerging US-China trade war. Is it a trade war armistice? A compromise by both sides to back off from the imminent actual trade war that would have erupted January 2019? Or was it the peaking of the conflict, which will deflate hereafter in 2019. In the following analysis, my view is that Trump \’blinked\’ at the G20. The US has retreated from its prior hard line positions, suspending its further tariffs and accepting China\’s offers already made this past summer 2018. Over the nine months since Trump launched his China (and other) trade war, economic and political developments have forced Trump to retreat. The China-US trade dispute will now follow the template of the phony trade war initiated by Trump with NAFTA, So.Korea, Europe, and elsewhere. Trump\’s trade wars were always mostly about the US November 2018 midterm elections.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2018
Global oil prices have deflated 30% in just the past few months. What does it mean? Where are they going in 2019? What are the potential effects on other financial asset markets (now also deflating) and the global and US economies now slowing? My analysis goes beyond mere supply and demand as determinative forces. Read how debt financing, politics, and the structure of financial markets in the 21st century are related to global oil deflation. (An excerpt from my 2016 book, \’Systemic Fragility in the Global Economy\’ on the experience of global oil deflation in 2014-15, follows as an addendum to this article).

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2018
Democratic Party leaders predicted a \’blue wave\’ sweep of the US midterm elections, implementing a strategy focusing on \’suburbia (targeting independents and college educated women, attacking Trump\’s personality, and pushing \’Russians\’ intervention in elections. The result was a \’wavelet\’ at best and a deeper \’red tide\’ by Republicans solidifying their base in red states America. The Democratic takeover of the US House of Representatives was no historic win, however; and greater losses in Senate and governorships occurred as well. Consequences of the results in likely legislation and a new \’bipartisan\’ approach by Dems and Trump. Trump\’s likely new aggressive attacks on Mueller\’s investigation and widespread voter suppression in key states are also addressed. (Part II analysis will follow, further critiquing the Democrats\’ \’Suburbia Strategy\’ and predictions for 2020 elections to come)

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2018
The following article describes the real condition of America on the eve of the 2018 midterm elections. Conditions that candidates of both Republican and Democratic parties consciously refuse to discuss. Conditions include growing murders from guns, suicides, opioid drugs; further accelerating income inequality; out of control technology; growing cultural decadence; decline of civil liberties and democratic institutions, and rise of \’white nationalism\’ appeals to a growing popular angst that things are growing wrong in America. How the \’great distraction\’ is underway by media and politicians–substituting \’enemies within\’ and \’enemies without\’ for the real problems. (This article is a prequel to following analyses of the 2018 US midterm election and its consequence, to be posted here as well).

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2018
The upcoming November 9 US midterm elections may prove yet another threshold in consciousness about the direction and state of the US political and social system. Should the Democrats fail to take a clear majority of seats in the US House, all the current media spin of a \’blue wave\’ (pro-Democrat vote) will be a shock to anti-Trump forces. Should the Democrats win and prevaricate and avoid impeaching Trump (the likely scenario) that too will demoralize anti-Trump forces in 2020. As well as embolden Trump\’s supporters, Bannon, Breitbart and the right. Should Trump retain the House, that too will embolden the right. Either way, a shock may be coming. And in its wake the possibility of a mobilizing of the Bannon-Breitbart right and may mark the start of confrontations \’in the streets\’, as the right physically begins attacking demonstrators and protestors trying to defend democratic right and civil liberties and calls for Trump\’s impeachment. Is the US drifting toward a \’Weimar\’-like Germany confrontation? The parallels are beginning to emerge.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2018
In his speech at the UN Trump claimed the US economy during his two years has been the best ever in US history–another gross misrepresentation and lie. The UN audience laughed. Here\’s the truth about Trump\’s claims regarding US jobs, wages, GDP, the stock market bubble, etc.. How US official statistics leave out important data and information that makes it easier for Trump\’s to ignore the facts.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2018
How are the causal forces which prepared, enabled, and precipitated the 1929 US market crash, the 2008 banking crash, and the coming next financial crisis similar and different? Rasmus explains the common role of excess liquidity & credit, leverage & debt, collapsing financial asset values, and defaults across the major events of 1929 and 2008. How US government policy responses differed and the consequences. Why the economy boomed after Roosevelt\’s New Deal but stagnated after Obama\’s Phony Deal. How financial crises propagate and precipitate real economic contractions, like the great depression (1930s) and great recession (2010s). Trump as the consequence of 2008-16. The stakes in the coming 2018 November US elections. The possible loci of the next likely financial crisis in 2-3 years: US stock markets; US leveraged loans, junk bonds, & BBB high grade bonds: Italy or India non-performing bank loans; emergnig markets collapsing securities, dollarized bonds & stock markets; China stocks & SOE debt; exposed Euro banks (Deutsche, Credit Agricole, Raffaisen, Banco Popolare); political tail risks (trade wars, hard Brexit, Latin American revolutions, US war on Iran…).

By Jack Rasmus
copyright 2010
(Excerpt from \’Epic Recession: Prelude to Global Depression\’, by Dr. Jack Rasmus, Pluto Books, 2010)
On the 10th anniversary this weekend of the 2008 collapse of the Lehman Brothers bank–which accelerated the 2008 crisis across all credit markets in September 2008–the US media and press have produced a flood of articles on the bank\’s collapse and the crash of 2008 in general. The general theme is the US Treasury and Fed \’saved\’ capitalism from another 1930s-like depression. But the haunting question is that in 2008 both the Fed and Treasury partnered with US big banks in ways that precipitated the crash and crisis. The two \’bookends\’ to the crisis were the bailout of Bear Stearns investment bank in March 2008 and the collapse of Lehman Brothers investment bank in September 2008. Was the Bear Stearns collapse, then bailout by the Fed, engineered by the bigger bank, JP Morgan Chase, with the assistance of the Fed? Was Lehman Brothers collapse (and no bailout) engineered by the US Treasury to benefit the big competitor of Lehman Brothers–i.e. the Goldman Sachs investment bank? Read here the excerpt from my 2010 book, \’Epic Recession\’, that explained how the Fed and Treasury aided Chase and Goldman to absorb the assets of Bear Stearns and Lehman at pennies on the dollar. How the US government thus often partners with the most powerful banks to help them devour their smaller competitors–even at the cost of exacerbating a general crisis as in 2008. (A new book by Laurance Ball, \’The Fed and Lehman Brothers\’, in 2018 concludes the same; I raised the thesis in 2010)

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2018
The US media and press are hyping the latest government statistics showing that wages in America are now rising at a 2.9% annual rate. But their narrow definition of wages, unadjusted for the real inflation rate, and inclusive of CEO, executive, managerial salaries and bonuses, and business proprietors\’ profits–and skewed by gains in pay of the best paid 10% of the workforce in tech and similar high end occupations–shows that wages gains for 133 million workers in the US are actually negative. Real wages for the 133 million continue to fall by 1%-2% annually, not rise by the misleading reportage of 2.9%.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2018
Amazon is heralded as a major job creator in the press. But how true is that? In net job terms, Amazon has been destroying jobs at an alarming rate and has plans to automate most of the jobs in its own warehouses in the next few years. But the big job destruction is still coming around the corner, beginning in 2020 and accelerating rapidly thereafter by 2030. Amazon the tech company (not the warehouse or retail company) will be a leader in developing and expanding Artificial Intelligence, AI, technologies throughout enterprise businesses and industries. Per a McKinsey Consultant recent study, that will amount to more than 30 million US jobs eliminated or hours dramatically reduced by 2030.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2016
This month, August 2018, marks the \’end\’ of the 3rd bailout of Greece, 2015-18, by the \’Troika\’ institutions of the Eurozone (European Commission, European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund). If one were to believe the press, it means Greece has now emerged from its debt crisis of three bailouts, in 2010, again in 2012, and again in 2015-18. But \’emerged\’ is hardly an accurate description. All that has changed is that the Troika–which paid off private investors in 2012 and charged Greece with new debt–is now no longer lending Greece more credit and debt. Greece can now turn, once again, to private investors for debt to pay off the Troika. It\’s back to 2010 and the first bailout. Greece has only changed its creditors and the locus of its debt. Instead of borrowing from the Troika to pay off the private investors and banks, it can now borrow from those investors and banks to pay off the Troika creditors. It\’s only switched its debt from the Troika to the private sector once again (as it had switched in 2010 & 2012 from the private to the Troika). Regardless to whom the debt is owed, Greece will be expected to continue austerity to squeeze its own citizens to pay off the bankers. It\’s just that the middleman of the Troika, which funneled Greek debt payments to the Euro banks in 2015, is again in the background. My 2016 book, \’Looting Greece: A New Financial Imperialism Emerges\’, Clarity Press (see reviews this website), described the Greek debt crisis as a new, 21st century form of Financial Imperialism now emerging, with Greece as harbinger of things to come. Posted here now is the complete final 12k word chapter of that book, describing the evolution of forms of imperialism historically, debating traditional definitions of imperialism influenced by early 20th century debates, and describing how Greece represents a new form of financial imperialism in which State institutions now play an increasing central role in extracting wealth and value from the exploited.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2018
Turkey\’s emerging currency crisis raises growing concerns throughout the global economy that, as its crisis deepens, it will precipitate contagion effects across other already weakening EME currencies and, through the transmission mechanism of Italian and Euro banks, to the advanced economies as well. This very scenario was predicted in my 2016 book, \’Systemic Fragility in the Global Economy\’, in chapter 3: \’The Emerging Markets Perfect Storm\’, offered complimentary to readers here, with a current update intro on the Turkey LIRA and related debt crisis. It is not just a currency crisis, but a bank debt crisis as well. Read how it is ultimately \’made\’ in US interest rate and dollar policy shifts. Why the delay in the crisis circa 2013-15 is now re-emerging once again. (see \’reviews\’ this website for reviews of the book, \’Systemic Fragility in the Global Economy\’.)

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2018
Trump is following a two-track trade war strategy. The one track, with NAFTA, Europe, and trading allies is phony. The war with China, in contrast, is real. Despite Trump bombast and hyperbole, deals with allies follow a \’trade war of words\’. So. Korea was the template. Mexico deal is imminent. Trump backs off threats with Europe in exchange for talk of EU buying more soybeans and natural gas. Trump\’s trade wars are about pandering his \’economic nationalism\’ to his political base in the upcoming midterm US elections. What Trump wants from China is quite different, but he won\’t get it. Read the factions behind the US trade strategy. Likely US and China tactics as the trade war US-China escalates. How a tariff tiff can escalate into a currency war, and go worldwide. How Trump\’s deficits from massive investor tax cuts and rising defense spending result in rising Fed rates and the dollar, devaluing China\’s Yuan and other emerging market currencies. Trump\’s currency war is rooted in Trump\’s deficits and fiscal policy.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2018
What\’s the connection between Trump\’s deals with Russian Oligarchs and the recent resignation of US Supreme Court Justice Kennedy? The resignation will now ensure Trump a super majority of 6-3 on the US Supreme Court, just as the Mueller investigation will soon reveal Trump\’s deals with Russian Oligarchs and lead to Mueller (and other) firings by Trump. It will lead to impeachment debate in Congress. Trump will pardon himself and his 6-3 Supreme Court will uphold his self-pardon. What\’s the connection between Trump-Justice Kennedy and the Russian Oligarchs?

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2018
This week in June 2018 the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, and European Central banks will meet and make a momentous decision that will have grave implications for emerging market economies in Latin America, South Asia and Africa. The US will continue to raise interest rates and the ECB will decide whether to abandon its \’QE\’ program and start down the road to rate hikes as well. Rising rates and prospects for more in the advanced economies of US and Europe are already having a devastating impact on emerging market economies like Brazil, Argentina, Turkey, Indonesia and soon others, including India. For my current analysis of these impacts, see my blog, jackrasmus.com, and the latest entry there, \’South America\’s Made-in-the-USA\’ Growing Crisis\’. Before doing so, however, read the selections here that follow, \’Emerging Markets Perfect Storm\’, chapter 3 from my 2016 book, \”Systemic Fragility in the Global Economy\” by Clarity Press. Here, two years ago I summarized the conditions in emerging markets that would result in what is now unfolding as the US, UK and Europe central banks began raising interest rates. As central banks continue raising rates, it will deepen the crisis of currency collapse, capital flight, recession, inflation and political unrest in countries like Brazil, Argentina, Turkey and others, where the process has already begun. Rising rates will ensure the crisis in EMEs then spills over to the US and advanced economies. 2019 is the likely timeframe for eruption.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2018
An Italian Debt crisis erupted this past week. The conditions have been present since 2010. Only now, with the ascent of a populist party coalition in Italy–5 Star and its League ally–has it made global headlines. Why now? Because the new government\’s election program challenged the Eurozone fiscal rules and even Euro currency-monetary policy framework. Like Greece in 2015, a populist party is threatening the basis of the Eurozone as Italy\’s $500b in nonperforming bank loans and 130% of government debt to GDP further roil discontent in Europe\’s southern periphery growing more unstable from Spain to Greece, as the Eurozone economy begins to stagnate once again. Will 5-Star go the way of Greece\’s Syriza populist party and cave in to \’Troika\’ pressure? Or will it truly challenge the pan-state based financial imperialism that lies at the heart of the Eurozone experiment–enabling Germany and Northern Europe economies to exploit via austerity its southern Europe periphery members? Read the latest analysis on Italy\’s crisis as Greek crisis \’writ large\’.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2018
This second in a three part series on Trump\’s trade offensive focuses on China-US trade events of recent weeks. Unlike Trump trade policy toward US allies, which seeks token adjustments to US trade relations with US allies trading partners, the Trump offensive against China seeks more fundamental objectives. However, US elites are split on what to prioritize: trade deficits, access to China internal markets, or technology transfer reduction. China strategy has been to maximize the divisions within the US trade interests. Looming large as well is Trump\’s objective of \’America First\’ and seeking some kind of trade success to tout to his domestic US political base. Will the current negotiations result in some quick token gains for the US, or more fundamental gains? If the latter, a trade war is inevitable; if the former, more Trump bombast and little to show that will be exaggerated for domestic political purposes.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2018
First of three parts analyzing Trump\’s trade policy. Why it\’s not a bonafide \’trade war\’. Why US allies trading partners will make only token adjustments to US in negotiations. Why domestic US politics are a major driver of US trade policy that is often overlooked. Why the real US trade target is China and the prime objective is China technology transfer, not reducing China imports to the US or the US trade deficit with China. (In part 2 to follow, the China-US \’almost\’ trade war. In part 3, US trade offensives in the 1970s and 1980s and how and why the Trump trade offensive is different)

by Dr. Larry Souza

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2016
The following is the 5th, and last, in a series on why the global economy is growing more \’fragile\’ and thus prone to another major system-wide financial instability event. The 5th in the series concludes the final chapter of my book, \’Systemic Fragility in the Global Economy\’, Clarity Press, 2016. It summarizes the 9 key variables and their interaction that explain financial fragility. How debt, credit, income, and terms and conditions of debt repayment lead to instability in households, business, and government entities and how the three sectors mutually interact. How transmission mechanisms between them exacerbate and accelerate crises when they occur.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2018
Read my just published article in the World Financial Review on the policy direction of the new Federal Reserve Bank under its new chair, Jerome Powell. How the raising of interest rates at 3-4 per year for 2018 and again 2019 will soon lead to precipitating another general credit and liquidity crisis that will lead to recession and financial instability in 2019-20.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2016
The following is the 4th in a series summarizing my theory and views why the US and global economies are growing more \’fragile\’ (and thus prone to financial instability events like 2008). The series is from the concluding chapter of my 2016 book, \’Systemic Fragility in the Global Economy\’. This 4th in the series summarizes how excess liquidity by central banks creates the massive debt, public and private, that forms the foundations of fragility and instability in the corporate, household, and government sectors. This 4th except then discusses how and why monetary and fiscal policies since 1980 contribute to the instability, and don\’t stabilize the system as is argued by mainstream economics. It also discusses how US and global labor and financial markets have been restructuring since the 1980s, and that restructuring is rendering monetary and fiscal policies ineffective in re-establishing growth and stability.

The following is the third installment from the concluding chapter of my 2016 book, \’Systemic Fragility in the Global Economy\’, where my theory of how debt and income interact to create financial crises as the economy grows more \’fragile\’ (i.e. prone to financial instability). That process has been continuing since the last crisis in 2008. In this third in the series, the discussion focuses on the relationship between financial and real asset investing and how price plays a role as a transmission mechanism. The \’two price theory\’ is explained, and Keynesian and Classical economists\’ views that money causes inflation are debunked.

by Jack Rasmus
Read why Trump\’s recent $5 trillion in business, investor, wealthiest 1% tax cuts, together with $hundreds of billions in new war spending, will result in annual government deficits of $1 trillion a year for the next decade. And more if recession occurs anytime in the next 10 years. Why the central bank, the Federal Reserve, is raising rates not because of inflation but due to the need to finance the multi-trillion dollar deficits that area now coming. And why they can\’t do so–without precipitating another recession, most likely in 2019 if the Fed raises rates more than twice more in 2018.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2018
Two articles written this past week on the US and global stock market contraction. Is it more like the Tech stock bust of 2000, or more like the derivatives driven crash of 2008? Or both? What are some of the precipitating, enabling, and fundamental causes of the implosion?

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2017
The Janet Yellen era at the US central bank ended this past week. What is the assessment of it (her) performance as chair of the Fed since 2014? Did the Fed attain any of its announced targets? Why did it continue to inject billions in virtually free money into the banking system, and keep interest rates near zero, after banks had fully recovered by 2010-11 under her predecessor, Ben Bernanke? Has the Fed under Bernanke-Yellen adopted a new function: continued subsidization of the banking system long after bailouts? Read my complimentary chapter 10 (Yellen\’s Bank: From Taper Tantrums to Trump Trade) of my latest published book, \’Central Bankers ats the End of Their Ropes\’, Clarity Press, August 2017)

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2018
My analysis of Trump\’s State of the Union address this past week. Except for misrepresenting the facts re. his $4 trillion plus tax cuts for corporations and investors, it was mostly attacks on immigrants and new threats aimed at Venezuela, Cuba, N. Korea, UN funding, and proposals to expand nuclear weapons, the US Guantanamo concentration camp, and further limits on civil liberties in the US. State of the Union addresses reach new low, more theatrical events than any serious assessment of programs and policies.