Articles

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2014
As thousands of Ukrainian Russians in the eastern breakaway provinces of Donetsk and Lugansk are killed by the new Ukrainian government\’s military forces, and hundreds of thousand flee as refugees from the eastern Ukraine to Russia, the question in the west arises again whether Putin and Russia will intervene directly in their defense. The recent destruction of the Malaysian airliner over the Ukraine complicates the question further. This piece written by Dr. Jack Rasmus prior to the downing of the airliner argues that Putin and Russia will not intervene militarily in the eastern breakaway regions, and sets forth the major reasons why. At the forefront of those reasons lies the real reasons for USA direct intervention in last February\’s Ukrainian coup d\’etat and its policies of the past six months which aim at provoking a Russian intervention to achieve bigger objectives for USA global policy with regard to pulling the Europeans back from a deeper economic integration and political cooperation with Russia (and China) which has been developing in recent years.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2014
In this article, Jack Rasmus explains how, beginning in 2013, the economic stagnation in the advanced economies (AEs), started to shift from the AEs to the emerging markets (EMEs), as a consequence of the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and other central banks\’ shift in policy from massive liquidity injections to policies that began raising AE interest rates long term in phases. This has resulted in a growing financial instability and slowing economies in the emerging markets, as EME currencies begin a long term decline, capital flight increases, foreign direct investment into EMEs slows, and EME interest rates rise to stem all the above–in turn slowing their real economies. In short, by reversing policies since 2009 in the AEs, central banks are in effect \’exporting\’ their economic stagnation at the expense of EMEs in a desperate attempt by AEs economies to address their 5 year long economic stagnation and slow growth recovery economies.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2014
Dr. Rasmus provides his detailed analyses of the just revised US GDP numbers for the 1st quarter 2014, which report a decline of -2.9% of the US economy this past January-March. He debunks the mainstream view that the major decline was due to \’bad winter weather\’, and the corollary mainstream argument dominating the public press that the US economy will soon experience a big 4%-5% GDP growth rate in the current quarter and rest of 2014. Jack shows that more fundamental factors are behind the 1st quarter contraction, and those factors appear to be continuing–not least of which is stagnating consumer spending, more cautious business spending, and a slowing of US net exports due to a slowing global economy and exchange rate volatility. While a bonafide recession is not on the agenda, a continuation of \’stop-go\’ recovery in the US economy and its related long run stagnation is very much the dominant scenario going forward. The US (and global) economy remains \’systemically fragile\’, according to Rasmus, far more today than in 2007.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright June 2014
Dr. Jack Rasmus debunks the view that \’bad weather\’ was the cause of the US economy\’s -1.0% GDP decline this past January-March quarter. Rasmus provides an economic explanation, focusing on deeper and longer term trends in the US economy, for the unexpected steep decline, and offers an alternative forecast for 2nd quarter 2014 GDP possibilities. Rasmus further traces the growing trend in the USA and other economies to create GDP growth by redefining it. Nigeria, China, and plans by Britain and Italy to start counting prostitution and drug dealing \’services\’ in GDP estimates are addressed, as economies unable to generate sustained economic recovery turn to defining their way to economic growth.

by Dr.Jack Rasmus
copyright 2006, 2014
As this writer has summarized in a recent article, \’A May Day 2013 Lament for American Labor\’, workers in the US and their unions today face a strategic impasse and a growing assault by corporations and politicians that is intensifying in recent years and rolling back wages, benefits, and union membership in never before witnessed historic dimensions. Host of the radio show, Alternative Visions, on the US Progressive Radio Network, Jack Rasmus has been interviewing long time US unionists for the past six months for their views of \’what is to be done\’ to prevent the continued destruction of American unions. On the May 10, 2014 show Dr. Rasmus and guest, labor historian Staughton Lynd, discuss specific solutions to the crisis, not just its dimensions. That discussion included what new forms of labor organization may be needed to halt the crisis. The following article was written by Dr. Rasmus back in 2005, as the conclusion to his then just published book, \’The War at Home: The Corporate Offensive From Reagan to George W. Bush\’. In the book, and attached article excerpt, Rasmus predicted the intensification of the destruction of American Unions and further, accelerated undermining of American workers\’ economic interests. A further, updated article \’An American Labor Balance Sheet\’ will follow the article here, this coming summer 2014, and will be posted on this website.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2014
On international labor day, May 1, Dr. Jack Rasmus, who was a union local president, organizer and negotiator in earlier life, steps back and reviews the condition of American Workers and their unions today. What the facts reveal is a near-desperate condition of declining job creation, stagnant and declining wages and incomes, and a fall in union membership of historic proportions despite polls and surveys showing workers want unions today more than ever before.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2014
The IMF deal for the Ukraine announced March 27, 2014 is reviewed by Dr. Rasmus. Analysis shows that the total IMF bailout of $27 billion over next two years will result in a net negative impact on the Ukrainian economy, after debt servicing payments to western banks and diversion of other funds to support current account deficits, foreign exchange reserves restoration, and central bank and currency decline are factored in. Other monetary and fiscal terms of the deal will mean household consumption declines from aggregate demand due to ending of gas subsidies, rising gas prices, government job and wage reductions, and pension reductions. Greater multiplier negative effects of the latter vs. the former IMF fund injections will result, Rasmus predicts, in a net decline in GDP of a minimum of 10%–much as in the initial years of the Greece IMF bailout, Rasmus argues.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright 2014
This second article in a series on the Ukraine crisis describes the likely terms of the EU/IMFs forthcoming rescue package for the Ukraine, and who will \’win\’ and \’lose\’ from the package and the coming deeper penetration of \’western\’ economic interests in the Ukrainian economy. Who will win and who lose in the Ukraine, gains and losses for Russia, for the European Union economies, and for the United States. Also discussed are what USA/EU multinational corporations \’want\’ from the Ukraine, and connections between the \’Ukrainian crony capitalists\’ and western corporate interests.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2014
What are the dimensions of the economic crisis in the Ukraine today? What are the origins of that crisis, in development well before the Yanukovich regime or the coup of February 20? In this initial analysis of the political economy of the Ukrainian crisis, Dr. Jack Rasmus looks at the economy\’s currency crisis, foreign exchange problems, the real economy\’s recession since 2013, and now likely descent into a \’Greece-like\’ depression and 5%-10% GDP collapse. An economy approaching $100 billion in debt by this summer, needing injections of more than $50 billion in liquidity over the next 12-18 months, it is highly unlikely either the IMF, Euroeconomies, or USA will provide that dimension of \’bailout\’, apart from immediate token injections and promises designed to influence the upcoming May elections in the Ukraine. The possible \’contagion\’ effects on Austrian and Italian banks, the role of \’crony capitalists\’ in the Ukraine in the coup and beyond is discussed, and the likely impacts of an IMF-led \’rescue package\’ on the average Ukrainian are considered.\”

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2014
Is the global economic crisis that emerged in 2007-08 now entering a ‘3rd Phase’. Dr. Rasmus discusses what’s happening now with the economies in China, Japan, Emerging Markets (India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, So. Africa and others), and Europe. Why is China on a long term growth slowdown path? Why is Japan’s USA-like central bank QE money injection policy failing to stimulate Japan’s real economy and leading to Japan’s ‘fourth dip’ recession since 2008? Why is Europe drifting toward deflation and its recovery stagnating, with France now the ‘bad boy’ economy of Europe? Why are the emerging market economies locked into a growing crisis, with massive capital flight flowing back to the west, falling currency values, and inevitable slowing economies? What are the possible ‘contagion effects’ between the three ‘stormfronts’—China, Emerging Markets, Eurozone—and how are ‘mutually amplifying’ feedbacks about to exacerbate problems in each—creating a three front global economic ‘perfect storm’? Finally, what might this ‘Emerging Economic Perfect Storm’ mean for the USA economy, once again slowing in 2014 after its latest ‘false start’ last summer? (For more on this topic, read Dr. Rasmus’s forthcoming March 2014 ‘Z’ magazine article, ‘The Emerging Perfect Storm’, his last October 2013 ‘Z’ article, ‘The Slowing Global Economy’, and shorter entries on his blog, jackrasmus.com, since January).

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2014
The following article is an assessment of the performance of the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, during the period of its current chair, Ben Bernanke, who will retire on February 1, 2014. It is also perspective on the history of the Fed on its 100th anniversary in 2013. The main conclusions about the Bernanke Fed, and the Fed in general, is that its primary function since its creation in 1913 has always been to bail out the banks. Secondary functions of money supply management and banking system supervision have, throughout the Fed\’s history, given way to bank bailout whenever the Fed has had to choose. Bank bailout (i.e. lender of last resort systemically) were the reason for the Fed\’s creation, in the wake of the financial crash of 1907-08 and banker concern of another imminent similar event on the eve of World War I. But by placing money supply and supervision behind bailouts, it is argued, the Fed has repeatedly created the need for bailouts again and again, in a cycle of bailouts, money supply mismanagement, and token ineffective bank supervision.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2014
Dr. Rasmus provides a deep look at the December Jobs report in the US, in which only 74,000 jobs were created. Contrary to official views that it is an aberration, he notes how the decline was predicted in his prior \’False Positives\’ analysis article on the October 2013 jobs report. A look at the \’raw\’ data on jobs–before statistical operations–shows a large decline in jobs. While both raw and statistical data show a massive drop out, the second in three months, of workers from the US labor force.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2013
The following article summarizes and analyses the terms of the recently passed compromise between Republicans and Democrats on changes to the 2014 US budget. The deal is the latest in the sequence of US austerity measures introduced since August 2011. Its main feature is the exemption of prior legislated $billions of spending cuts for the military, while cutting further non-military spending programs by means of legislative \’smoke & mirrors\’. The two year deal projects net non-defense spending reductions of $28 billion, while restoring more than $40 billion in defense spending cuts. Read the strategic significance of the deal, and the next likely steps in the continuing deficit cutting, \’Austerity American Style\’ social programs, unemployment benefits, and food stamps for the poor in the US

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2013
This article is the full published version, including material in the series of 3 on the corporate tax shift, and adding further material in the form of data tables, discussion on the \’four myths of corporate taxation\’, and more detailed proposals for corporate tax reform.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright November 2013
The following entry concludes the three part series on the Great Corporate Tax Shift (see preceding parts 1 and 2). The focus here is on how US corporations avoid tax payments to US states where the corporate income tax exists. Instead of the average nominal tax rate of about 10%, they pay \’effective\’ rates of no more than 2% on average. Combined with offshore effective tax payments of only 2.2% and US federal tax rates of approximately 12.7%, it adds up to US corporations\’ paying effective rates of less than 17%–and not the nominal tax rate of 35% (US federal), 10% (US states\’ average), or 20% (offshore country rates average rough estimate for OECD countries). Part 3 concludes with proposals for restoring corporate taxes and corporations\’ relative share of US federal-state tax revenues.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright November 2013
This following Part 2 of a three part series on how little US corporations actually pay in corporate income taxes focuses on how multinational corporations manipulate the various loopholes to avoid paying taxes on their offshore earnings (and US profits that are diverted to offshore subsidiaries). Manipulation techniques, like the \’dutch sandwich\’, the \’double irish\’, and \’bermuda on the side\’ are highlighted, as causes of the global corporate tax cut \’race to the bottom\’ now occurring worldwide.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright November 2013
A great misrepresentation by corporate media, pundits and political friends is underway in the US, as US capitalists and politicians attempt to create a message to justify massive additional tax cuts for US corporations via tax code change legislation working its way through the US Congress in recent months. The claim is that US corporations pay more taxes than their offshore capitalist cousins, therefore taxes on US corporations should be drastically reduced. Already Obama and Republicans have proposed to reduce US corporate top tax rates from current 35% to 25% or 28%. US multinationals are scheduled for an added, even greater feast allowing them to retain nearly $2 trillion of their current offshore profits cash hoard. What follows is the first, Part 1, of three entries (Parts 2, 3 to follow) exposing the facts regarding what US corporations really pay in taxes–to the US federal government, to state governments, and globally to other countries.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2013
Contrary to month to month economic data, the US and Global Economies reflect a longer run slowing of economic growth since the short, shallow recovery of 2009-10 following the financial crash and \’epic\’ contraction of economies worldwide in 2008-09. The following article reviews the current state and trends within the global economy, as of late summer 2013. Included are reviews of the US, Eurozone, UK, Japan and China economies. While recoveries appear in the short run, in this or that global region, the recoveries are short and shallow and thus unsustainable. The article explains why traditional fiscal-monetary policies, including a primary focus on QE and liquidity injections by central banks and reluctant and insufficient fiscal stimulus packages, have been unable to propel the global economy and its various regions onto a sustained growth path. Weak multiplier effects for fiscal policy due to excess debt and stagnant incomes and inverse elasticities and return to financial speculation in lieu of real asset investment, are offered as explanations for the growing failure, and contradictions, increasingly evident by traditional fiscal-monetary policies being employed worldwide.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2013
An in-depth analysis of the origins, evolution, and future consequences of the recently agree to interim US debt ceiling deal in Washington is available for downloading and listening from various websites. The commentary by Dr. Jack Rasmus is approximately 55 minutes. The audio commentary is a follow up to the preceding print article, \’The Coming Debt Ceiling Deal\’, published several days before the settlement. Click on this url for a summary of the radio show commentary. The show may be accessed at:

www.kyklosproductions.com/audiocds.html
or
www.alternativevisions.podbean.com

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2013
The following article was written on October 13-14, two days before the debt ceiling-government budget and shutdown fight was temporarily concluded in Washington. It predicted there would be a deal between Republicans and Obama–a prediction made repeatedly in preceding weeks and months. Read why the deal on October 16, 2013 is only a preliminary to the real negotiations that now begin, returning deficit cutting and \’austerity american style\’ back to the original track it has been on since August 2011, until temporarily diverted by the Tea Party faction in the Republican party this past September. Those \’real negotiations\’ will focus on cutting social security and medicare even more than Obama has proposed, injecting more corporate tax cuts into the coming settlement, in exchange for a longer debt ceiling agreement Obama and Democrats want.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2013
Teaparty radicals in the US House of Representatives and a growing minority of conservatives in the US are saying a debt default by the US government won\’t harm the economy. In this article, Dr. Jack Rasmus critiques that view and explains in what ways a debt default–or even the approximating of a default–would inflict serious harm on the US and global economies. Rasmus raises again his three \’conditions\’ (tail risks) which would ensure an already slowing US economy descending into a formal double dip recession even by the definition of GDP in the US that now grossly underestimates the weakness of the economy.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2013
Last week President Obama nominated Janet Yellen to replace Ben Bernanke as Federal Reserve chair. In the following article, Dr. Jack Rasmus argues that Yellen will not prove different in terms of policy than Bernanke or, for that matter, Larry Summers who recently withdrew from consideration for the position. This contradicts liberals\’ who promoted Yellen, who somehow believe she\’s a \’dove\’ and her policies would help employment and growth. Rasmus points out that QE and other Fed policies since 2009 have had little impact on the real economy, and instead benefited speculators, investors and bankers.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2013
The following is a transcript of a radio interview given by Dr. Jack Rasmus, October 4, 2013, explaining how the debt ceiling crisis in the US could negatively impact US financial markets and the broader economy.

by Jack Rasmus
In my forthcoming Nov. 1, 2013 \’Z\’ magazine article, entitled \”The Long Term Global Economic Slowdown\”, I discuss in detail how and why the global economy, USA and China included, is on a long term economic slowing trajectory. As a preliminary to this publication, readers are encouraged to listen to my latest two, hour-long public presentations on this topic. Listen to my recent public talk at the Alameda Social Forum, Sept. 14, and my \’Alternative Visions\’ radio show presentation on \’The Growing Convergence and Crisis in Fiscal-Monetary Policy\’. Click on this article above for the details how to access both.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2013
The US Fed\’s \’on again off again\’ policy to reduce its QE3 liquidity injection program–now more than $1 trillion at $85 billion a month over the past year–shows conclusively that capitalist investors have become \’addicted\’ to the free money policies of the US (and other global) central banks. The slightest indication of withdrawal of the liquidity life support results in financial fits that threaten global financial and economic instability and further real economic slowdown or worse. The Fed is losing control of its money supply programs and rendering its own \’forward guidance\’ approach a shambles. The Fed\’s dilemma: continue QE and push more financial asset bubbles worldwide vs. reduce QE and risk a destabilizing negative reaction. Fed plans to \’taper tomorrow\’ will result in an even sharper financial asset deflation response. Read why \’global monetary policy\’ is broken–amidst a global refusal to stimulate economies via expansionary fiscal policy.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2013
The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, has justified the continuation of its latest version of quantitative easing (QE3) program with the argument it is necessary to reduce the unemployment rate to 6.5%. This article provides evidence that QE3, so far amounting to about $1 trillion in subsidized purchases of mortgage and Treasury bonds from banks and investors, has not reduced the unemployment rate from 8.1% to 7.3% over the past year. Other factors have been responsible. Nor has QE in its prior versions (QE1, QE2, Operation Twist) had any success reducing the trend toward deflation or stimulating the real economy–its prior justifications. The Fed\’s retreat from \’tapering\’ of QE for the second time this summer will make it even more difficult to do so in the future, causing even more instability in the global monetary system to come. The article concludes with an example how a QE for jobs via a government job program like the 1930s WPA, instead of pushing financial asset prices, could eliminate up to 20 million jobs.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2013
The public press in the US appears to be preparing the public for an imminent announcement by Obama that Larry Summers is his choice for next Federal Reserve chairman. In the following article, I not only provide a full background of Summers\’ public \’service\’ record and decades long consistent support for bankers interests, but explain why a Summers appointment will not result in any major change (\’Summers Effect\’) from current Fed policies under Bernanke during the recent economic crisis–including policies of QE and zero bound rates.

by Jack Rasmus
Speculation on what the Federal Reserve will do later this month (Sept) with its \’QE\’ $85 billion a month free money injections that have artificially propped up stock, bond and other financial markets continues to intensify. Will the Fed \’taper\’ (reduce) its $85 billion or not? Meanwhile, emerging markets are descending into serious financial and economic instability, and domestic US interest rates continue to rise, threatening to choke off the housing and jobs markets and stifle consumer spending. The article provides a brief analysis of the issues, as President Obama moves closer to appointing Larry Summers as the new Fed chairman

by Jack Rasmus
The following article discusses the increasing attacks in the USA on democratic rights and processes. It then contrasts the fightback to defend the same in the Moral Mondays grass roots movement in North Carolina, with the empty rhetoric of politicians in Washington DC celebrating the 1963 Dr. Martin Luther King March on Washington that led to the expansion of democratic rights.

by Jack Rasmus
2nd Quarter 2013 US GDP numbers showed a meager growth rate of 1.7%. For the July 2012-June 2013 period, US GDP recorded a mere 1.4% annual growth rate. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis, BEA, revised US GDP in late July going back decades, redefining what constitutes \’Investment\’ to boost GDP figures and show greater growth than before as a result of redefinitions (not real activity). Dr. Rasmus reviews the revisions, the barely 1.5% US economic growth longer term, and recent economic indicators for July 2013 to provide an update to his May 2013 written, \’Predicting the US and Global Economies, 2013-14\’ (based on March 2013 data). Dr. Rasmus finds little to suggest a major shift to growth in the US is about to occur in the remainder of 2013. Imminent \’Federal Reserve reduction of QE, the upward drift of long term interest rates, the slowing of housing and auto sales, still stagnant business inventory spending, and the likely renewed Congressional fight over deficit cutting and debt ceiling extension–all further suggest no robust recovery. Global trends in China, the BRICS, and a still stagnant Eurozone add to the forecast.

by Jack Rasmus
In a potentially important development, the main US union federation, the AFL-CIO, recently announced it would decide at its upcoming convention in September on the proposal to add community organizations, like the NAACP, La Raza, Sierra Club, as members within the AFL-CIO with \’decision making power\’. Dr. Rasmus interviews 3 local union activists, deeply involved in ongoing labor-community actions at the local level, how they see the possible \’top level\’ decision by the AFL-CIO. Listen to the interview accessible from the podcast url in the article.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright August 2013
Jack Rasmus provides an update to the US GDP revisions announced on July 31 that boosted 2012 GDP by $559 billion, explaining the revisions focus largely on counting certain business \’expenses\’ as bona fide investment. Investment in GDP, steadily falling (and with it jobs in the US) as a percent of GDP for more than a decade, is now adjusted up significantly, creating the appearance of more investment than in fact has occurred. Intangibles are now counted as investment as well. Jack notes this is a \’slippery slope\’ and no different than counting corporate \’good will\’, brand name appreciation, expenses for mergers and acquisitions, and other financial securities as \’investment\’. Jack replies to liberals who publicly criticize his view in these two follow up articles.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2013
Jack predicts that this coming July 31, the US government will announce major definition changes and revisions to the way it calculates Gross Domestic Product, GDP. These changes will result in significantly boosting past GDP numbers, making the Obama \’recovery\’ since 2009 appear more robust than it really has been. Business investment, which has been declining relative to GDP for years as corporations have invested offshore at the expense of US based investment and jobs, is most likely the central focus of the coming redefinition of GDP.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2013
President Obama announced the kickoff of a new speaking tour, in which he promises to raise new proposals to defend the economic interests of the middle class. In this article, Dr. Rasmus explains the tour will be no different than other ideas he has raised the past four years. What\’s really behind the tour is the launching of the next round of deficit reduction and tax cut negotiations between the administration and the US House of Representative\’s radical Teapublican majority. This round is somewhat different, with the new element of massive corporate tax cuts on the fast track in the US House that Rasmus predicts will form the basis for a new deficit deal (see the prior article posted below: \’Austerity American Style\’, for a more detailed analysis.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2013
This article summarizes the deficit cutting in the US from 2010 through the present, with predictions for yet another phase to occur in late 2013 as part of the major revisions in the US tax code now working its way through the US Congress. The tax code changes will include massive corporate tax cuts, more taxes on the middle class, and hundreds of billions more in cuts to social security, medicare, and other social programs–many of which have been already outlined in president Obama\’s April 2014 federal budget. The article includes a detailed analysis of Obama\’s 2014 proposed budget\’s tax and spending programs. The article concludes with a call for independent political action by affected groups to protest and prevent the program cuts, tax hikes on the middle class, and more tax breaks for corporations. Neither the Democratic party or the leadership of the American unions, tied to the party, will take action to prevent the cuts. Forming independent \’social security defense clubs\’ nationwide and a march on Washington DC are offered as initial items for actions.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright June 2013
The following article reviews predictions of the economy made by this writer in January 2012 and their outcomes, and makes further predictions for the US and global economy for the next 18 months, through December 2014.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2013
The global conventional wisdom is that while Europe, China, the BRICS, and most of the rest of the global economy are either slowing in terms of economic growth rates, or descending deeper into recessions, that the U.S. economy is the \’bright spot\’ and accelerating in growth. But a more detailed analysis of the US economy shows a longer term slowdown in GDP and economic growth over the past 11 months, when special one-time events, real inflation, and population growth are adjusted for. The following article considers real and actual US GDP in the light of those adjustments. (A fuller and more detailed analysis of the US and global economies is provided by Dr. Rasmus in his forthcoming, July-August issue of \’Z\’ magazine, entitled: \”Predicting the US and Global Economy\”).

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2013
With the Obama administration and teapublicans in the Congress appearing at another deficit cutting impasse, the following article reviews and summarizes Obama\’s just released budget for 2014, commencing October 1, 2014. Focusing specifically on proposals for social security, medicare, taxes and defense spending, it predicts another round of major deficit cutting, aka \’Austerity American Style\’, before the end of 2013. Another trillion dollars in spending cuts could occur, composed largely of social security and medicare, according to Obama\’s budget, and even more business tax cuts. The key development, it is argued, will be the massive revisions in the US tax code being worked at present by the Republican House of Representatives, projected to cut corporate taxes by hundreds of billions more, as well as restoration of defense spending cuts called for in the recent \’sequestered\’ implementation last March 1, 2013. The tax code changes may well comprise the \’glue\’ for yet another episode of \’Austerity American Style\’.

by Jack Rasmus, copyright 2013
Both wings of mainstream economics (Hybrid Keynesian and Retro-Classicalists) have been unable to explain and predict the origins and current trajectory of the US and global economic crisis that still continues to unfold. Left (of Keynesian) and traditional Marxist economists have fared no better. Pluto Press in the UK, publisher of my books, has asked I participate in a debate on the causes and evolution of the crisis. What follows are my first two contributions to that debate. The first outlines why both mainstream and Marxist economic analysis consistently fails to predict the crisis. The second contribution is a brief summary of my alternative analysis in 20 basic propositions, which explain why the global economy continues to drift toward another financial crisis and, this time, a bona fide global depression.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2013
The following article, written just days before Obama announced his 2014 budget, summarizes the history of deficit cutting in the US (aka \’Austerity American Style\’) from the summer of 2011, when Obama proposed his $4 trillion \’Grand Bargain\’ to US House Republicans, up to his most recent budget proposals. From the beginning, Obama planned to cut Social Security and Medicare by $700 billion or more, and he continues to offer the same even though $2.8 trillion of the $4 trillion have already been \’deficit cut\’. What has appeared, therefore, as Obama\’s incredible poor bargaining skills since 2011 may, in fact, represent a collusion between Democrats and Republicans to cut social security and medicare all along.

by Dr. Jack Rasmus, Chair of \’Shadow\’ US Federal Reserve
copyright 2013
On April 22, 2013 a \’Green Shadow Cabinet\’ for the US was formed, comprised of nearly 1oo members. Unaffiliated with any political party, the purpose of the \’Green Shadow Cabinet\’, of which I, Dr. Jack Rasmus, am a member as the \’shadow\’ Chairman of the US Federal Reserve\’, is to produce, publicize, and promote alternative solutions to the dysfunctional and failed US government and two political parties, Democrats and Republicans. For more information on the \’Green Shadow Cabinet\’, read the statements of cabinet members at: http://greenshadowcabinet.us/statements. Access the video at: http://youtu.be/m3zNyEIR-Ww. And sign up for the newsletter at: http://greenshadowcabinet.us/subscribe-our-newsletter. The Following article, \’The Failures of Fiscal-Monetary Policy, 2008-2013\’ is my initial Oped Statement as the shadow chairman of the US Federal Reserve.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2013
In this second follow up article on the Cyprus government debt and banking crisis, the theme of conditions likely rapidly to deteriorate (predicted in the prior piece on Cyprus below) is considered. The possible \’contagion\’ of the Cyprus situation is being underestimated by Euro policymakers. The recent Dublin meeting of Euro Finance Ministers is analysed. As the situation in Cyprus further deteriorates, depression there is inevitable, leading to requiring even more Euro bailout funding, more Cyprus austerity (and thus deeper depression), and a revisiting of the scope of the \’bail in\’ of depositors savings. Either more than 60% of savings of depositors with more than 100,000 Euros will be necessary or those with less deposits, previously exempt, will be called upon to begin to forfeit their savings as well. as a condition of future bailouts to come. The piece concludes with noting that the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, FDIC, and the Bank of England, apparently also had a meeting last December to discuss the necessity of \’bail ins\’ and confiscation of depositors savings in the US and UK in the event of another banking crisis. As this writer raised in a piece months ago: \’Are central bankers globally preparing for another possible banking crisis\’? (see my blog, jackrasmus.com, for that analysis in 2012).

by Jack Rasmus
copyright 2013
Written in the days immediately following the eruption of the Cyprus debt and bank crisis, this article considers the possible significance of the crisis beyond Cyprus\’s borders, and in particular its potential meaning for growing instability in the Eurozone and UK banking system. The \’bail in\’ of depositors\’ savings may represent a harbinger of options being explored for future bank bailouts across the EU, as it becomes clearer that a true \’banking union\’ (and even a \’banking supervisor\’) is not on the Euro agenda as politically possible the remainder of this year, at minimum.

by Jack Rasmus
Available for public viewing and distribution is my recent 35 min. presentation to the Progressive Democrats of America in San Francisco on the true condition of Social Security and Medicare in the US, delivered on the eve of the March 1 sequester deficit cuts and Obama\’s subsequent budget calling for $620 billion in cuts to these programs. The video not only explains how social security and medicare finances are not part of the deficit but offers policy suggestions how minor \’tweaks\’ to the programs can provide funding until 2075, and how little it would \’cost\’ to convert these programs to \’medicare for all\’ and retirement at 62 with two-third pay. Readers are encouraged to view the video or audio versions of the presentation on this website, under the \’videos\’ page or the \’interviews\’ page (audio only)

by Jack Rasmus
The Following is the transcript of an Interview with Radio Russia Today\’s host, Carmen Suchansky, on March 1 on the topic of the Sequestration spending cuts, including why they will have a greater negative impact on the US economy than most mainstream commentaries estimate.

by Jack Rasmus
Z magazine, March 2013
Income Inequality in the US is not only growing but increasing at a faster rate. The implications of this trend as a cause of the faltering US economy are often overlooked. As the rest of the world economies follow the US federal reserve in relying more heavily on QE (quantitative easing) and monetary policy as the prime economic tool to boost a slowing global economy, the US in turn drifts toward the \’austerity\’ fiscal solutions that are failing as well in Europe and elsewhere. Austerity + QE is the current formula for capitalist global policy makers–and is failing everywhere. QE ensures recovery for financial markets and \’austerity\’ is argued will result in a return to business confidence and thus investment and jobs. Nowhere in the formula for recovery the recognition that consumption, the overwhelming largest part of the economy, is being undercut by both QE and Austerity. In the article that follows, publish March 1 in \’Z\’ magazine, I explain the full dimensions of inequality in the US and how it is contributing to the drift toward \’double dip recession\’ I have been predicting since 2010 would occur in 2013-14.

by Jack Rasmus,
copyright 2013
Europe is moving towards a FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS TAX as a counterpoint to continuing ‘austerity’ and budget cutting that is driving it deeper into recession. Read my latest article how a US robust version of the same could bring in $1 TRILLION of tax revenue EVERY YEAR by simply taxing stocks and bonds at 1%, derivative trades at 0.1%, and retail foreign exchange trading at 1%. No need for austerity programs. No need for incessant budget cutting. No need for gutting social security, medicare, and other programs. Just tax the banks that caused all the problems in the first place. Check out my proposal for a US-version FINANCIAL TRANSACTION TAX.

by Jack Rasmus, copyright 2013
Economic data in early 2013 show economies are either in recession or slowing across the globe. Monetary policies of zero interest rates and QE are failing to stimulate recovery, while creating speculative bubbles and precipitating a renewed currency war. Meanwhile, fiscal policies of \’austerity\’ are driving economies deeper into recession setting off deflationary pressures that policy makers use to justify still more failed QE and monetary injections. In the fourth quarter 2012 the US economy came to a standstill. Debate rages whether it is an aberration or whether the US is now on the same trajectory as Europe, Japan, and elsewhere, inexorably drifting into a global double dip recession this writer has been predicting for 2013-14 for the past two years. The following article reproduces this writer\’s past 15 months (5 quarters) of analyses of US GDP trends, through the most recent 4th quarter US GDP. Details of the components of GDP are examined quarter to quarter, showing the fundamental trend in the US is toward a slowing, a \’stop-go\’, \’bumping along the bottom\’ recovery that this writer has in previous works described as an \’Epic Recession\’.

by Jack Rasmus
\’Z\’ magazine, January 2013, copyright Jack Rasmus
In a 6,000 word feature article, Jack explains the historical signficance of Fiscal Cliff, as the return to \’Austerity American Style\’ deficit cutting of 2011 that was temporarily suspended by the 2012 election year. Fiscal Cliff (aka Austerity American Style) represents a retraction of fiscal stimulus of 2009-10 in the US, as central bank monetary policies take the lead in policy. Fiscal Cliff represents the phase in which taxation and incomes of wealthy are protected at the expense of the dismantling of social programs representing \’deferred wages\’ (social security & medicare). Income protection for the rich and corporations paid for by (deferred) wage reduction.

Seven radio interviews November-December 2012 on the Fiscal Cliff negotiations,
Follow Jack Rasmus daily on the Fiscal Cliff discussions on Twitter, at #drjackrasmus

by Jack Rasmus, copyright 2012
Following in chronological sequence are 6 articles published on my blog, jackrasmus.com, from mid-November to December 31, 2012, in which I forecast the evolution and predict the eventual outcome of Fiscal Cliff negotiations between Congress and Obama since the November 2012 elections, through the \’first phase\’ partial agreement on January 1, 2013. Read the 7 predictions in the lead article, and their eventual outcome in the remaining 2 through 6 entries.

by Jack Rasmus, copyright November 2012
With the national elections over, now the \’real economic program\’ of Obama and political elites is being forged, and soon to result in the \’American version of Austerity\’. Jack makes seven specific predictions about the content and timing of the current \’Fiscal Cliff\’ negotiations, providing arguments why this time a deal will be struck–but one that will mean more tax cuts for corporations, more spending cuts except Defense, more middle class tax increases, and a \’backloading\’ of the impact to 2014 and beyond. (For a background to the Deficit Cutting now culminating in the Fiscal Cliff negotiations, see the COMPLIMENTARY COPY of Chapter 7, of Jack\’s April 2012 published book, \”Obama\’s Economy: Recovery for the Few\”, which is also available on this website, \”Deficit Cutting on the Road to Double Dip\”. The book is also available for purchase on this website, singly or bundled with a video DVD presentation with a 66 powerpoint slide show. (For short updates on the \’fiscal cliff\’, follow Jack on twitter at #drjackrasmus.)

Jack Rasmus, copyright November 2011 & 2012
DEFICIT CUTTING ON THE ROAD TO DOUBLE DIP
With \’Fiscal Cliff\’ (i.e. \’austerity US style) negotiations underway in November 2012, readers may find the following COMPLIMENTARY CHAPTER 7, from Dr. Jack Rasmus\’s most recent book, \’Obama\’s Economy\’, of interest as background evolution from 2009-2011 to the current deficit cutting negotiations between Obama and Congress. The \’Obama\’s Economy Book may be purchased from this website, in individual copy, or bundled with a 66 powerpoint slideshow and video presentation of the book. See the icon for the book with DVD, or just book icon, below for ordering online via Paypal with a credit card. Listen also to Jack\’s recent public presentations on the \’Fiscal Cliff\’ on the \’Interview\’ tab on the toolbar of this webpaage.

by Jack Rasmus, copyright November 2012
Jack provides an analysis of the recent US national elections, indicating that it was the US working class voter who put Obama in for a second term; specifically, the minority voters (especially Hispanic), young workers 18-29 yrs old, and union labor in the key swing states of Ohio to Minnesota. Jack predicts Obama will \’repay\’ their vote with at best minimalist programs in his second term. \’Austerity\’ US style is coming, which here they call \’fiscal cliff\’.

by Jack Rasmus, copyright November 2012
Ohio and Florida are generally referred to by press and pundits as the \’swing\’ states up for grabs that will determine the election outcome. But the states to watch are Virginia and Colorado, if Ohio-Florida are split between Obama and Romney which looks increasingly like the case. Obama needs to win either Colorado or Virginia; Romney needs to win both. But the real wild-card is voter turnout. Everyone may be quite surprised of the final outcome, based on Obama\’s potential failure to turn out voters again who supported him in 2008.

by Jack Rasmus, copyright October 2012
Jack explains how the quarter\’s 2% GDP growth figure is grossly overestimated, once the quarter\’s one-time big surge in defense spending is backed out of the number. It appears the defense surge was planned by politicos for the eve of the election, given that prior quarters in 2012 registered deep declines and that government spending had fallen each quarter for more than two years. The real GDP rate 3rd quarter was likely 1.5%-1.7%, the average for the past year. More ominous is the recent trend of decline in business spending and consumer spending based on credit and dis-saving with no real income growth, now or on the horizon.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright September 2012
The following article, which appears in an abbreviated from in the October 1, 2012 issue of \’Z\’ magazine, summarizes the similarities and differences between Obama\’s and Romney\’s economic programs during the current election period. It considers how they compare in terms of jobs, taxes, budget deficits, healthcare, housing, trade, and other economic programs. While some definite differences do exist between the candidates, as in healthcare and some tax proposals, there are nonetheless disturbing and striking similarities in other areas between the two: cutting corporate taxes, an historic expansion of free trade, and little specifically new about how to create jobs and resurrect the homeowner.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright September 2012
The Federal Reserve, the US Central Bank, announced last week an \’open-ended\’ new Quantitative Easing 3.0 program of still more money injection into the US banking system. This time it was \’sold\’ by claiming the $40 billion a month program (with no defined end) would create jobs and boost the housing sector. Not explained was why more hundreds of billions would accomplish what the preceding $2.7 trillion in QE1, QE2, and QE 2.5 have not to date. As the following article shows, QEs are designed to boost stock and other financial securities and thus profits of banks and investors. The latest QE will prove no different. The hand outs to banks and investors just keep coming–while politicians debate how much of economic stimulus to \’take back\’ after the elections in November.

Beginning Wednesday, Sept. 19, at 2pm, New York time, and every wednesday thereafter, Jack Rasmus\’s Show, ALTERNATIVE VISIONS, on PRN.FM

by Jack Rasmus, copyright September 2012
On Monday, September 10, the state of California signed into law a new pension \’reform\’ bill, that will likely serve as a template for other states also intent on reducing their spending at the expense of the benefits and standard of living of its public employees. The following article looks at the real causes of pension fund shortfalls for states, which have little to do with the costs of benefits for the vast majority of state workers, and much to do with rip-offs by banks, investors, and negligence by fund managers and state politicians now for more than a decade.

by Jack Rasmus, copyright August 2012
Despite the current economic problems in Europe and the slowing China and global economy, the longer term trend for US global economic dominance is one of inevitable decline. In the following brief overview of this topic, Jack Rasmus focuses on relative currrency shifts, the twin deficits (trade and budget) in the US and their relationship, and domestic fiscal-monetary policy limitations as major forces long term, beyond the current epic recession, that will inevitably result in loss of the present degree of US global economic dominance.

The following are two consecutively placed reviews of Jack Rasmus\’ new book, \’Obama\’s Economy: Recovery for the Few\’, by Zoltan Zigedy and Carl Finamore, respectively. Zigedy\’s review reflects a progressive socialist assessment and Finamore\’s a long time local union president of the Machinists union.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright July 2012
Readers have repeatedly asked this writer why my forecasts for the US and global economic crisis have proven largely accurate, in particular those made last December that predicted the US economy would undergo a serious third \’relapse\’ (rapid economic slowing) this summer, that the Eurozone economy would experience a more severe banking crisis, and that the China economy was headed for a \’hard landing\’. The following piece summarizes in a very brief 1000 word article how my approach to economic analysis differs from mainstream economics, in both its \’Retro-Classicalist\’ and \’Hybrid Keynesian\’ schools of analysis. The summary was written on request of a OWS study group attempting to better understand the current course of the economy, which mainstream approaches have largely failed to explain.

Jack Rasmus
copyright July 2012
The June jobs report from the US Labor Department showed a third month of an average of only 80,000 jobs created–about a third of the monthly gains reported this past winter. The now obvious third \’jobs relapse\’ in as many years (predicted by this writer last winter) is being explained as due to exceptionally good weather last winter, that \’brought forward\’ extra jobs into the winter months, resulting in lower job growth this summer. But this \’weather hypothesis\’ to explain poor job creation again this summer is just \’spin\’ and an excuse for more serious analysis. That analysis is offered in lieu of weather \’metaphors\’.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright July 2012
This article provides a follow up to the first, \’Are Central Banks Preparing for a Global Banking Crisis\’, in June. Banking conditions in the Eurozone and in London are showing increasing instability. Central banks from Europe to the UK to UK and China appear to be moving toward a more coordinated effort to stabilize their banking systems, as instability indicators rise with JP Morgan\’s losses, the \’Libor\’ scandal affecting Barclays and others, the banks in Spain deteriorate, etc. But monetary policy cannot rescue the greater economy, even if it does temporarily the banks.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright June 2012
While the most pressing problem today for the U.S. economy and polity is the emerging 3rd economic \’relapse\’ in as many years that is now underway in the U.S. economy this summer 2012, in the long run the U.S. faces 10 Major Crises in its economic system and political structure. Articles by this writer on this website have largely focused on shorter run topics and issues; the following article represents the broader economic crisis confronting the US, including issues such as \’chronic inability to create jobs\’, \’an inverted tax system\’, a collapsing retirement system, a predominantly employer-insurance health care system that will implode beginning 2014, a clear decline of the US and its currency as the sole global economic power, historic and escalating income inequality, the corporatization of its education system, and the growing corporatization of democracy and accompanying decline of civil liberties, as well as other topics. Any one or two of these would constitute major challenges. The ten occurring almost simultaneously–in the context of inability to generate a sustained economic recovery in the short run–mean that social changes are coming in America that few now anticipate.

by Jack Rasmus
copyright June 2012
Central banks around the world appear to be moving toward a coordinated global effort to synchronize new multi-trillion dollar \’quantitative easing\’ moves, in anticipation of a major banking crisis emerging in the Eurozone. The U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan are all involved. Will further massive liquidity injections halt the accelerating deterioration of banks in the Eurozone, U.K. and U.S? Not likely, and certainly not stop the drift toward a global double dip in 2013.

Jack Rasmus, copyright June 2012
On Friday, June 1, reports for May jobs, revised 1st quarter US GDP numbers, and the Eurozone crisis were released. Together they confirm what this writer has been saying since last November in his book, \’Obama\’s Economy\’ (published April 2012) and numerous articles and blog contributions: namely, the US economy will fade this spring 2012, the Eurozone will descend into a deeper crisis, and China-India and the BRICs will head for a \’hard landing\’. The following article summarizes the points concerning jobs, GDP, and the Eurozone this writer has been emphasizing for the past half year. A third \’relapse\’ of the US economy is clearly underway this summer, to be followed by a bona fide double dip in 2013 (as predicted) as US elites will agree to cut deficits by several trillion dollars more immediately after the upcoming November 2012 elections.

by Jack Rasmus, copyright June 2012
The past four years banks, hedge funds, money funds and other financial institutions have been bailed out to the tune of $9 trillion by the Federal Reserve and Congress. Pension funds are also financial institutions, but now that some are in trouble due to risky financial speculation and partnering with hedge funds and private equity firms since 2006 there is no talk of financial assistance to pension funds. Instead the focus is on making workers pay more, reduce their retirement benefits, or dismantle the funds turning them into 401ks that banks get to charge fees to manage. The following article identifies 12 causes of the pensions crisis, and 17 solutions–none of which require penalizing the victims (the workers) whose pensions represent their deferred wages over decades.

by Jack Rasmus, copyright May 2012
What are the connections between JP Morgan Chase\’s $2billion and rising losses in its London speculative \’trading\’ desk, the deepening Eurozone banking crisis, and US banks and stalling US economic recovery? Why JPM is \’deja vu\’ to pre-2008 financial instability, as the Federal Reserve\’s and Obama policy since 2009 bring the US and global economy full circle once again to the original sources of financial crisis–unlimited, unregulated financial institution speculative investing chasing bank superprofits.

by Jack Rasmus, copyright May 2012
The trend of a slowing GDP and US economy that began to appear in the first quarter 2012 has its roots in the temporary factors underlying GDP growth in the fourth quarter 2011, hyped in the press this past winter as evidence of US economic recovery. Both 4th quarter and 1st quarter GDP elements are dissected in this article, and the further evidence of a \’stop-go\’ US economic recovery is linked to the insufficient policies of the Obama administration since 2009.

The following is the Introductory Chapter to this writer\’s newest book, OBAMA\’S ECONOMY: RECOVERY FOR THE FEW\’, published April 2012 by Pluto Books worldwide and distributed by Palgrave-Macmillan in the USA. It states the major themes of the book, which analyzes why the latest US economic \’rebound\’ will not last and why the Eurozone, China and the global economy are on track to a deeper, more serious crisis. (The book may be ordered from the front webpage book icon of this website or purchased online or from the distributor.

by Jack Rasmus, copyright 2011
The following short piece is the summary-abstract of the author\’s new book, OBAMA\’S ECONOMY: RECOVERY FOR THE FEW, the Table of Contents of the Book, and early endorsements by senior labor leaders in the USA. The book may be purchased on this website\’s front page at discount via Paypal credit card payment. The book is also available online, and may be purchased in the USA from the distributor, Palgrave-Macmillan, and from the Publisher, Pluto Books, in the U.K for rest of world locations. It may also appear in local bookstores.

Jack Rasmus, copyright April 2012
This article will appear in abbreviated from in the May 2012 issue of \’Z\’ magazine. It contains an initial update to the author\’s book, \’Obama\’s Economy: Recovery for the Few\’, just released April 2012, which discusses the themes: why the US recovery since 2009 has been the weakest of all 11 previous recession recoveries in the U.S., why it has benefited the wealthy \’few\’ and their corporations and not the rest, and why traditional fiscal-monetary policies of the past four years have failed to generate a sustained economic recovery and will continue to do so. The author predicts the third, current \’rebound\’ of the US economy will once again fade sharply in 2013 leading to a double dip recession as Congress adds another $2-$4 trillion in deficit cuts to its already $2.2 trillion immediately after the election, as the Eurozone crisis intensifies again, and as China and the other \’Bric\’ economies\’ economies continue to slow. The current article picks up where the data in the book leave off in late 2011.

by Jack Rasmus, copyright April 2012
Jack explains why, for the last three years, jobs numbers reported by the labor department have always improved over the winter, only to stagnant once again in the summer as the US economy underwent \’relapses\’. The reasons are both statistical methodology and \’real\’ economic factors behind annual jobs and economic recovery faltering.

by Jack Rasmus, copyright 2012
The European Central bank, the ECB, in the past few days pumped another $1 trillion into the European banks, an indication that the so-called Euro sovereign debt crisis is in fact, beneath the surface, a bank crisis. The ECB\’s massive liquidity injection follows in the footsteps of the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England and Bank of Japan. All have pumped trillions of dollars into the global banking system to prevent a second global banking crisis and, this time, global depression. The trillions have amounted to \’free money\’ provided by the central banks to the global banking system. The massive free money injection may have temporarily prevented a second banking collapse, but it hasn\’t resulted in a recovery of the global, Euro, or US economies. It has, however, created a growing dependency on the capitalist financial system on \’free money\’, a new financial addiction, that has resulted in repeated stock market and commodity market price bubbles, consequent inflation and falling real incomes for households, a dampening of consumption, and a major break on economic recovery. The following article, appearing in \’Truthout\’ and other public blogs, analyzes this new \’free money addiction and what it means for continuing global financial instability, austerity programs, and the progressively slowing global economy.

by Jack Rasmus, copyright February 2012
Shifting to analyses of the global economy, in particular the European debt crisis, the following article looks at the latest events in the Greek debt crisis. The point is made the crisis is really, below the surface, a crisis of european banks and speculators–not the Greek nation, which is being required to pay for the crisis. Similarities between austerity programs to resolve the crisis in Greece-Eurozone and the U.S. are made, and predictions for US austerity policies in 2013 are offered.

by Jack Rasmus, copyright February 2012
As a follow up to Obama\’s claims about jobs in his January State of the Union address, below are two entries from Jack Rasmus\’ blog on the condition of jobs in the US at the start of 2012.

A dissecting of Obama\’s January State of the Union speech and his claims concerning job creation.

by Jack Rasmus, copyright January 2012
An inside look at fourth quarter 2012 and Annual 2012 statistics on GDP, showing that the \’recovery\’ in 2011 was anemic at best and showed no indication of sustained recovery. The US economy remains mired in little to no growth, despite the hype of final months data.

by Jack Rasmus, \’Z\’ magazine, January 2012
The following article is an expanded version of a same entitled article published January 2012 in \’Z\’ magazine. It consists of two parts. The first explains why mainstream economists have failed, and continue to fail, to predict the major events and turning points of the US and global economies: first, the onset of the epic recession of 2008, the erroneous prediction there would be a \’V\’-shape\’ rapid recovery in 2009, and now the failure to foresee the coming impact of the Eurozone bank crisis and the hard landing of the China economies in 2012-13. In contrast, the unorthodox approach to analyzing the trajectory of the economy used by this writer, summarized as a theory of \’epic\’ recession, has forecast the two preceding major developments and the imminent third. In the second part of the article, the writer provides 13 specific forecasts for the US and global economies in the coming 12-18 months in 2012-13.

by Jack Rasmus, Z Magazine, December 2011
The following article is a definitive quantitative analysis showing how the $9 trillion in additional deficits and U.S. federal debt added from 2001 to 2011 was the result of the Bush tax cuts\’ reduction in federal tax revenues, excess inflationary war-pentagon spending, bailouts of banks and corporations, failed jobs recovery since 2009, price gouging by health insurers and providers, and related interest charges. The primary targets of Supercommittee and still continuing Congressional-Administration budget cutting–i.e. medicare, medicaid, social security, education, unemployment insurance, etc.–are a fiction created to divert public attention from the true causes of deficits and debt, more than three-fourths of which is the consequence of Bush tax cuts overwhelmingly benefiting the wealthy and their corporations, runaway war-pentagon costs, and corporate-bank bailouts.

Jack Rasmus, copyright 11-23-11

Jack Rasmus, copyright 11-7-11

by Jack Rasmus, copyright 9-21-11

by Jack Rasmus, copyright, 9-9-11

Jack Rasmus, copyright 9-6-11

by Jack Rasmus
Z Magazine, September 2011

Is the union labor giant stirring in response to the deepening economic crisis in the US? The following article briefly summarizes the crisis, then reviews some of the emerging responses by labor. Some early grass roots stirrings, like the Emergency Labor Network, actions by the Nurses, and others are described, as well as the cautious, incremental steps taken by the officaldom of the AFL-CIO.

by Jack Rasmus, copyright 2011
It is appropriate this labor day 2011 to offer an assessment of one of the most important developments affecting American workers for more than three decades now–concession bargaining. Begun in the late 1970s, intensified in the 80s and 90s, it is now expanding and deepening into new areas. The devastating results in terms of union membership, bargaining power, and real income decline that is the legacy of concession bargaining in the private sector, has now begun to penetrate the public sector as well, where workers are giving back gains of decades in exchange for the false promise to save their jobs. Jobs will not be saved in the public any more than they were in the private sector. Moreover, concession bargaining in 2011 is morphing again, this time in an attack on the \’social wage\’–social security, medicare, etc. The lie is that cutting the social wage contained in these benefits will \’save\’ these programs. Concession bargaining didn\’t save jobs; and it won\’t save social security or medicare. Concession bargaining results only in more concessions.

by Jack Rasmus, copyright July 2011
There has never been a recovery from the current recession, notwithstanding official declarations that the recent recession ended more than two years ago in June 2009. It all depends how one defines and measures recession, and \’GDP\’ analysis and even the NBER\’s broader analyses, are notoriously deficient in defining an end to recession. Since June 2009 the housing market has already experienced a double dip, as has the jobs market. The latter is now well on its way to a triple dip. The jobs, housing, and local government crises have together prevented any sustained recovery. And now Congress and the President, with their myopic fixation on deficit cutting, are all but guaranteeing a double dip. Add to that the progressive slippage of other economies deeper or into recession and the rapid slowdown of growth in China, Brazil, India and the EU\’s slouching toward a banking implosion–and you get the overwhelming drift toward global double dip. Here\’s the facts why.

Jack has been providing a running in depth commentary on the intensifying debates in Washington on the debt ceiling-default issue, predicting the moves by Obama-Boehner-Gang of Six-Reid/McConnell, and the Teaparty-Democrats respective bases in Congress. These views have been published on the noted blogs: Truthout, Znet, Talking Union, and Common Dreams. Readers can access these contributions by accessing Jack\’s blog on the main webpage of this website.

Jack Rasmus, copyright July 5, 2011
Last spring Jack predicted in a published article (see below) that the hype around the March-April job numbers was false, and that jobs would once again collapse starting this summer. The June jobs numbers showed only 18,000 net net jobs following an almost dismal May 54,000. (130,000 new jobs are needed each month just to absorb new workers entering the labor force). This article confirms that earlier prediction, and warns the US is now headed into its third, \’triple dip\’, jobs crisis in the past three years.

Jack Rasmus, copyright, June 26, 2011
Jack was keynote speaker at the historical labor conference, \’The Emergency Labor Network\’, that met in Ohio, June 23-26. He was asked to develop and present a program for creating jobs, saving homeowners, ending the fiscal crisis of local government, and making those who caused the crisis to pay for it. This short article summarizes how to finance jobs, housing, government services and make the rich and corporations pay the bill.

Jack Rasmus, copyright, June 4, 2011
One of the most well-known economists, Paul Krugman, who writes a column for the New York Times has been progressively migrating \’left\’ as he sees the Teaparty and the idiocy of balanced budget politics in Washington deepen. Paul has been becoming increasingly frustrated, even frantic, as he correctly warns of the deeper crisis this will provoke. In his latest, he acknowedges Obama\’s job programs have failed and he, Krugman, calls for direct government job creation. But he never spells this out. Jack challenges him to do so in this article published on several blogs in June.

by Jack Rasmus, June 5, 2011, Truthout blog and jackrasmus blog
Reviewing the growing economic evidence, the prediction of a double dip recession is made with supporting data. Housing is in depression, manufacturing has begun slowing in the US and globally, Japan-UK-Australia have entered recession, the EU periphery is sinking further, and China-India-Brazil are all cutting back economic growth to deal with speculators and commodities inflation. The US consumer, 70% of economy, is retrenching with falling home prices, rising gas and energy prices, declining real incomes, and rising foreclosures and joblessness. The government sector is about to escalate cuts at all levels in the near future.

by Jack Rasmus, May22, 2011, Truthout blog and jackrasmus blog
While Obama administration, business press, and economists continued to hype the job gains of March-April 2011, this article looks behind the numbers to predict a weakening jobs market and predicts a collapse of jobs once again this summer 2011 as it did last summer 2010.

by Jack Rasmus, copyright June 2011, Z magazine
This article traces the evolution of the economic class war that has been growing in America since the 1980s and discusses how \’new fronts\’ in that war are now being opened by corporate interests and their political allies. New are the growing attacks on \’social\’ and \’deferred\’ wages and the destruction of public sector unions, collective bargaining, and benefits. Current budget cutting debates are initially reviewed and the central role of protecting the last three decades of tax restructuring in favor of corporations and investors is addressed.

by Jack Rasmus, copyright April 2011
The business press reported last week that multinational corporations eliminated 2.9 million jobs in the US while hiring 2.4 million offshore. With all the talk about budget deficits, no one is asking how these corporations are responsible for the the trillions of dollars in lost federal tax revenue and therefore contributing significantly to deficits and the US debt. Their contribution comes in several forms: lost jobs and taxes paid by workers, tax credits by the US government to move jobs offshore, and various ways in which the multinationals avoid paying taxes. It comes to over $1 trillion. The article calculates the numbers.

by Jack Rasmus, copyright April 2011
Teaparty and Republicans take defense spending and tax hikes off the table, refuse to consider their role in US budget deficits and the $9 trillion added to the debt since 2000. But a look at the data shows the cost of mideast wars, defense spending escalation, and Bush tax accounts account for 70% of the $9 trillion addition to the US debt since 2000. The remainder of the $9 trillion can be traced to runaway health care costs and their impact on Medicare and Medicaid, and the bailouts of mostly businesses with Obama\’s 2009-10 budgets. Here\’s the facts not reported in the mainstream press.

Jack Rasmus
Z Magazine, April 2011
Jack provides detailed data showing why public workers\’ wages and benefits are not responsible for the current budget crises of states and cities. He shows how poor job growth in the last decade, the failure of Obama jobs creation programs, problems and costs in municipal bond markets, and speculative investing losses by local government in mortgages and derivative securities since 2007 are the main causes.